The 18th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI) was released by the international research organization, the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), on June 11, 2024. This index ranks 163 countries and territories based on their level of peace, offering a comprehensive analysis grounded in various data that reveals peace trends across three primary domains: the level of societal safety and security, the extent of ongoing domestic and international conflict, and the degree of militarization. These factors are evaluated using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators.
This article aims to present the key findings of this year’s index, preceded by an overview of the methodology employed, followed by an analytical perspective on several extracted main points, structured as follows:
Methodology of the Global Peace Index
The report examines global peace trends across three domains, assessed using 23 indicators divided into quantitative and qualitative categories, with each indicator rated on a scale from 1 to 5. The first domain is the level of domestic and international conflict, analyzed through six statistical indicators to study the extent of countries’ involvement in internal and external conflicts and their roles therein.
The second domain evaluates the level of societal safety and security through 11 indicators, including the number of internally displaced persons, crime rates, and terrorist activity. The third domain assesses militarization, using six indicators to evaluate countries’ military capabilities and their ability to balance military buildup, develop their weapons arsenal, and maintain peacefulness. These indicators include military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, the number of military personnel, and financial contributions to UN peacekeeping missions.
In its current edition, the report introduced a new indicator for assessing countries’ military capabilities, which examines both the quantity and quality of military assets, alongside combat experience and readiness. This includes four categories of weapons: fixed-wing aircraft, rotary-wing aircraft, naval assets, and armored vehicles, along with an analysis of military technological advancement and the adoption of more technologically sophisticated weaponry.
Key Findings of the Global Peace Index 2024
The Global Peace Index 2024 highlighted the existence of 56 active conflicts, the highest number since the end of World War II. It also noted a decline in the percentage of conflicts ending in decisive victories from 49% in the 1970s to 9% in the first decade of the 21st century. Similarly, the proportion of conflicts ending in peace agreements dropped from 23% to 4% over the same period. With 92 countries involved in external conflicts, conflicts have become more internationalized, driven by competition between major powers and rising middle powers, complicating peace negotiations.
Additionally, the index pointed out the involvement of middle powers such as Egypt, South Africa, Turkey, and Israel in global affairs, driven by their desire to engage with major powers and play a role in various international and regional issues. This trend is contributing to the establishment of an increasingly multipolar international system, while many countries in the Global South prefer to avoid aligning with major powers.
In this context, global peace trends can be discussed according to regions, alongside military capabilities as a key determinant of global peace levels. Additionally, the economic impact of conflicts, wars, and violence plays a role in reshaping the pattern of warfare in the 21st century, as follows:
Global Peace Trends
The Global Peace Index 2024 reported a 0.56% deterioration in global peace, with 97 countries experiencing a decline in peace levels, the highest number since the GPI’s inception in 2008. The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine were the primary drivers of the global peace decline, with the conflict in Gaza having a significant impact on global peace.
Iceland remains the most peaceful country in the world, a position it has held since the first edition of the index, followed by Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, and Singapore. In contrast, Yemen was ranked as the least peaceful country in the Global Peace Index 2024, followed by Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine.
At the regional level, Europe is the most peaceful region globally, hosting eight of the top ten most peaceful countries. The region has maintained its status as the most peaceful region in the world since the GPI’s launch. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region saw a slight decline in the Global Peace Index 2024, with its peace score dropping by 0.1%, primarily due to a 2.4% deterioration in militarization and a 1.6% increase in conflict. However, the region showed improvement in safety and security due to better performance in indicators like violent demonstrations and homicide rates.
Overall, the Asia-Pacific region remains the second most peaceful region globally, a position it has held since 2017. Among the region’s 19 countries, 11 experienced a decline in peace, while only eight saw improvements. New Zealand is the most peaceful country in the region, ranking fourth globally in the 2024 GPI. On the other hand, North Korea has been the least peaceful country in the region since the GPI’s inception, with the fourth-worst deterioration in 2023, driven by increased militarization. North Korea remains one of the most heavily armed countries globally, with the highest possible scores in nuclear and heavy weapons, military expenditure, and the rate of armed forces personnel, followed by Myanmar.
South Asia is the third least peaceful region in the Global Peace Index 2024, ahead of only the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. Four of the seven countries in the region saw a decline in their peace scores, mainly due to significant militarization and a reduction in contributions to UN peacekeeping operations, along with increased military spending. Bhutan is the most peaceful country in South Asia, while Afghanistan is the least peaceful in the region.
Central America and the Caribbean experienced a slight deterioration in the Global Peace Index 2024, with a 0.17% decrease. Among the region’s 12 countries, five saw improvements, while seven declined compared to 2023. The overall decline in peace was largely driven by significant deteriorations in external and internal conflicts, as well as in political terrorism indicators. Many countries in the region continue to struggle with the ongoing impact of high levels of organized crime and civil unrest.
Costa Rica, ranked 58th in the Global Peace Index 2024, is the most peaceful country in the region, despite significant declines in indicators such as violent crime, demonstrations, and homicides. On the other hand, Haiti was ranked as the least peaceful country in the region for the first time and the fifth least peaceful globally, due to substantial increases in violent crime, demonstrations, and homicides.
North America (Canada and the United States) experienced the largest deterioration of any region in the Global Peace Index 2024, with declines across all three domains of the index, particularly in conflict, leading to a near 5% reduction in overall peace and stability. Despite this, North America remains the third most peaceful region globally, after Europe and Asia-Pacific.
South America saw the second-largest decline in the Global Peace Index 2024, with a 3.6% drop in overall peace levels. Seven of the region’s 11 countries saw declines in their peace scores due to deteriorations in conflict, homicide rates, and political terrorism, while three countries showed limited improvement, and one maintained its level. Despite this, the region remains the fifth most peaceful globally, with Argentina being the only South American country ranked among the top 50 most peaceful countries worldwide. In contrast, Colombia has been the least peaceful country in South America for the fourth consecutive year.
The Russia and Eurasia region showed the most improvement compared to any other region in the Global Peace Index 2024, with a 0.6% increase in overall calmness. Four of the region’s 12 countries improved in the peace index, while eight saw declines. However, the overall peace levels in the region remain extremely low, mainly due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, which remains the central and dominant issue in this region.
The Middle East and North Africa region was ranked as the least peaceful region in the world for the ninth consecutive year, with four countries, including Sudan and Yemen, among the ten least peaceful globally. Kuwait is the most peaceful country in the Middle East and North Africa, ranked 25th globally, and one of three countries in the region ranked among the top 50 most peaceful countries worldwide. In contrast, Yemen was ranked as the least peaceful country in the region and the least peaceful globally in the Global Peace Index 2024 for the first time.
The “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation and Israel’s war on Gaza have primarily contributed to the decline in the peace index in the Middle East. The continued presence of Hamas in northern Gaza raises doubts about Israel’s ability to secure the area or even the entire Gaza Strip from Hamas, despite the war causing a severe humanitarian crisis in the region. This uncertainty significantly impacts the region’s peace index, which saw a major decline with the outbreak of this conflict.
The index has highlighted that the involvement of Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen in the Israeli war on Gaza has plunged the Middle East into a significant crisis, pushing the region to the brink of an open war. This situation is particularly alarming considering that Israel and Iran have previously attacked each other. Moreover, 100,000 Israelis have been displaced from northern Israel due to Hezbollah’s strikes, as the group possesses between 100,000 and 150,000 rockets. Additionally, the Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, raising concerns about the escalation of conflicts between Israel and other countries in the region, including Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.
Regarding Egypt’s ranking in the Global Peace Index, the country has shown positive progress, moving up to 105th place, marking a significant improvement of 16 positions compared to 2023, when Cairo ranked 121st. This progress is noteworthy despite Egypt being a regional power involved in global affairs, but positively, aiming to restore security, peace, and stability.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the region was ranked as the second least peaceful in the world in the 2024 Global Peace Index, after the Middle East and North Africa. The region contains three of the ten least peaceful countries globally, reflecting its complex and concurrent security and political crises, most notably the expansion of terrorism. Burkina Faso has the highest impact of terrorism worldwide, and five out of the ten most terrorism-affected countries are located in sub-Saharan Africa. Mauritius is the most peaceful country in the region for the 17th consecutive year and is the only country in the region that has not been involved in any external or internal conflicts over the past five years. Conversely, South Sudan is the least peaceful country in the region, while Ethiopia has recorded the greatest improvement in peace following the signing of a ceasefire agreement in Tigray. In contrast to Ethiopia, Gabon has recorded the most significant deterioration in peace in sub-Saharan Africa and the third largest deterioration globally.
Military Capabilities
The Militarisation domain saw the greatest deterioration in the Global Peace Index, with an average decrease of 1.7%. This marks the most significant annual decline in militarisation since the index was first released in 2008. Out of 163 countries in the Global Peace Index, 108 experienced a decline in this area, while military spending was the main driver of increased militarisation. Eighty-six countries increased their military spending, while 50 reported a decrease.
The first-of-its-kind military registration system, focusing on studying military technological differences, indicates that U.S. military capabilities are three times higher than those of China. However, China recorded the largest increase in military capability among major military powers, while France and Russia showed a slight contraction. Overall, global military capability has increased by 10% since 2014, despite a decrease in the number of military personnel. Armed forces worldwide have significantly shifted from reliance on infantry to more advanced weaponry, with 112 countries reducing their military personnel from 2008 to 2024.
Economic Impact of Wars and Violence
The economic losses resulting from conflicts, wars, and violent events—requiring spending to mitigate, prevent, or address them—are referred to as the “global economic impact” and include damages to property, physical harm, or psychological injuries. These effects can change economic behavior by reducing the propensity to invest and spend on productive activities, redirecting expenses toward managing and containing conflicts and violent incidents.
The global economic impact consists of three main components that represent different ways in which violence affects economic activity: direct costs, indirect costs, and the multiplier effect. Direct costs of all forms of violence and conflict include immediate consequences for victims, perpetrators, and public systems, including health, judicial, and public safety systems. Indirect costs refer to long-term costs such as lost productivity resulting from physical and psychological effects and the impact of violence on perceptions of safety and security in society. The multiplier effect reflects the economic benefits of redirecting spending to more productive alternatives.
The Global Peace Index has shown that the global economic impact of violence rose to $19.1 trillion in 2023, or $2,380 per person, representing 13.5% of global GDP. This increase of $158 billion was largely driven by a 20% rise in GDP losses due to conflict, posing a significant risk to supply chains for governments and companies. Total spending on peacebuilding and peacekeeping was $49.6 billion, representing less than 0.6% of total military spending. The largest increase in the economic impact of violence and conflict was recorded in Palestine and Israel, where the overall impact increased by 63% and 40%, respectively.
Moreover, military spending and internal security represent more than 74% of the total economic impact of violence, with military expenditures alone accounting for 44% of the total impact, equivalent to $8.4 trillion. Thus, wars and conflicts severely affect the global economy and can lead to a global recession. For example, the Syrian economy contracted by more than 85% after the start of the civil war in 2011, and the Ukrainian economy contracted by 29% in the year following the outbreak of conflict in 2022.
A New Pattern: 21st-Century Wars
Over the past 16 years, the world has become less peaceful, with 17 out of 23 indicators in the Global Peace Index deteriorating, most notably those related to external and internal conflicts fought by countries, the number of refugees and displaced persons, and violent demonstrations. As a result, 110 million people have either become refugees or internally displaced due to violent conflicts, with 16 countries now hosting more than half a million refugees.
As the number of conflicts and wars worldwide has risen, leading to displacement, refugees, and casualties over the past two decades, the 2024 Global Peace Index has studied how wars and conflicts have changed in the 21st century. The Ukrainian war and the Israeli war on Gaza demonstrate the immense human cost of wars, reflecting the complexities of modern warfare. The index has identified two main trends in the evolution of wars in the 21st century: changes in military technology and increasing geopolitical competition. The involvement of non-state actors in conflicts, along with the use of new types of weaponry, particularly unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), has complicated conflicts and hindered efforts to resolve them.
The index indicates that between 2018 and 2023, the number of countries using UAVs increased from 16 to 40, a 150% increase, while the number of non-state actors that committed at least one attack with UAVs rose from 6 to 91, a more than 1,400% increase. Regarding geopolitical shifts and their role in complicating conflict resolution efforts, the transition of the global system from a unipolar system to a multipolar system has intensified competition and prolonged conflicts, especially as the United States and the European Union face pressures limiting their ability to manage global tensions, while rising powers such as Russia and China, and regional powers, are competing to secure their interests and areas of influence in conflict-affected regions around the world.
Analytical Perspective on the Global Peace Index
The results of the 2024 Global Peace Index, reflecting global peace trends based on quantitative and qualitative indicators, highlight several critical points. First, the global system is transitioning from a unipolar system dominated by the United States to a multipolar system, with several emerging international powers, such as Russia and China, and regional powers, like Iran, Israel, and Egypt, trying to establish themselves as key players in managing various crises and vital issues.
Second, conflict and war hotspots, even if limited in scope, are likely to expand and worsen as these areas become arenas of competition between major and emerging powers—between the eastern bloc (Russia and China) and the western bloc (the United States and the European Union). This competition raises the likelihood of future internal and external conflicts and wars. Third, the multiplicity of conflicts and wars is accompanied by economic stagnation and humanitarian crises, such as displacement, refuge, and declining food security, exacerbating the economic and technological gap between the global north and the global south. It also creates recurring cycles of violence, crime, and terrorism, affecting the global north and further widening the peace gap between the north and the south.
Fourth, one of the main factors determining patterns of wars and conflicts is the evolution of war technology and weaponry, with a reduced reliance on large military personnel numbers. The involvement of non-state actors in conflict zones, possessing advanced weaponry, contributes to shaping an asymmetrical and endless war.
Fifth, UAVs have become the weapon of the current era, with their danger lying in the ease with which they can be acquired by states and non-state armed actors, and their use in managing and directing wars and conflicts in ways that serve their interests, threatening state sovereignty and stability and reshaping the nature of modern warfare.
Sixth, there is a need to intensify international efforts to resolve many conflicts before they escalate into large-scale wars, from which no country will be insulated, especially as the global south faces complex economic, political, security, and humanitarian challenges that threaten to worsen security, stability, growth, and development. These challenges create an ideal environment for the outbreak of conflicts and wars.
In conclusion, the world today is on a hotbed of conflict and war, with intense competition between major powers (Russia and China) and the United States and Europe in several regions and conflict zones. This competition includes a race to enhance military capabilities, introduce new weapons systems, and test them in conflict zones, contributing to the emergence of new types of warfare that negatively impact global peace, security, and stability. Moreover, the complex web of international interactions, with numerous global and regional powers involved in conflict zones and influencing several key international and regional issues, is hastening the establishment of a multipolar global system. The Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa will be among the primary arenas of this competition.
