British Prime Minister Keir Starmer conducted a European tour, visiting both Germany and France, the two largest powers in the European Union, on August 28 and 29, 2024. This marked his first foreign tour since assuming office in July 2024. The trip aimed to strengthen the UK’s relations with major European powers, aligning with Starmer’s post-election promise to improve ties with European allies after years of discord following the UK’s exit from the EU. Additionally, Starmer sought to use this visit as a first step toward boosting the British economy and easing the tensions left by the previous Conservative government, which he blamed for “14 years of decline” due to Brexit’s effects.
Key Dimensions
Starmer’s visit to Berlin and Paris reflects his desire to rebuild UK-European relations, particularly following the UK’s departure from the EU in 2020. The visit can be analyzed from several angles:
Starmer’s Desire to Reset Relations with the EU: Since the UK formally left the EU in 2020, relations between the UK and EU member states have been significantly strained. Starmer’s visit to Germany and France was part of his strategy to rebuild these relationships and reorient British foreign policy in line with the deep ties that bind European nations. His attempt to renegotiate the UK’s European relations is part of a broader strategy of making controversial decisions early in his tenure as Prime Minister. Starmer had previously vowed to “move beyond the Brexit crisis” and to rebuild fruitful relations with EU member states, emphasizing that this shift does not mean reversing Brexit but rather seeking deeper cooperation in other areas, such as the economy and defense.
Britain’s Search for Defense Cooperation with Europe: Germany and France hold central roles in defense for Britain within the EU, especially France, which is a key security partner for the UK. Both countries are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and are the only two nuclear powers in Western Europe. Given the increasing security threats in Europe, particularly from Russia, Starmer sought to discuss with Scholz the possibility of drafting a new defense treaty between the two countries, potentially inspired by the “Lancaster House” agreements signed between London and Paris in 2010. The proposed treaty would focus on intelligence sharing, cooperation in developing defense systems, and joint military exercises. These steps would enhance the national security of both countries and ensure their readiness to deal with potential threats.
Strengthening Trade Relations and Economic Growth: Germany and France, the two largest economies in the EU, are strategic partners for Britain. Strengthening economic ties with these countries is crucial, especially as they are among the UK’s largest trading partners. Germany and France are the UK’s second and fourth largest trading partners, respectively, accounting for about 15% of the UK’s total foreign trade. Therefore, Starmer’s agenda included meetings with business leaders and top executives from major companies like Siemens Energy and Rheinmetall in Germany, aiming to attract more German investments to the UK. These investments are vital for supporting the British economy post-Brexit, as they contribute to job creation and growth in areas like energy and technology, especially amid ongoing global economic challenges. These British-European commercial efforts also precede a major international investment summit hosted by the UK Prime Minister in October 2024, aimed at boosting investment and growth across the country.
The Relative Decline in Western Military Aid to Ukraine: Germany, the second-largest supporter of Ukraine after the United States, plans to cut its budget for Ukrainian aid by 50% in 2025. This represents a turning point that could affect European support for Kyiv. The German government has indicated it will not provide any additional aid to Ukraine beyond the €4 billion included in the 2024 budget. This could impact the funding for the “IRIS-T” air defense system and some artillery and drone ammunition deals that were to be funded outside the 2024 budget, raising questions about Ukraine’s ability to withstand increasing security challenges. Additionally, Western allies of Kyiv have reacted cautiously to Ukraine’s recent incursion into Kursk, expressing concern that their weapons might be used on Russian soil, which could provoke a strong response from Moscow. While the UK has allowed Kyiv to deploy a squadron of 14 British-made Challenger 2 tanks as it sees fit, it has placed restrictions on the use of long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Similarly, Germany has repeatedly refused to send Taurus long-range missiles to Kyiv, citing concerns about escalating the conflict.
Increasing Migration Across the English Channel: The issue of illegal migration via boats traveling from France and Germany to the UK across the English Channel is a significant concern for the British government. Illegal migration through the Channel reached record levels in the first half of 2024, increasing by 18% compared to the previous year, with around 13,500 migrants. Since the beginning of 2024, 25 people have died—double the number of deaths in 2023. Notably, Starmer had previously pledged a new approach to addressing illegal migration during his party’s election campaign, focusing on stopping small boats from crossing from Europe to the UK and scrapping Rishi Sunak’s plan to deport migrants to Rwanda.
The Upcoming US Elections: The three European countries—France, the UK, and Germany—are among NATO’s largest defense spenders in Western Europe. They seek to strengthen their defense cooperation in anticipation of a potential reduction in US military support for Ukraine if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House in January 2025. Trump has consistently warned during his campaign that if elected, he will reconsider NATO’s role and mission, raising concerns that the US might limit its support for Ukraine, especially since Trump has indicated his unwillingness to provide unconditional military aid to Ukraine. European concerns about US support have grown since Trump selected J.D. Vance as his running mate, with Vance opposing the US writing “blank checks” to help Ukraine fight Russia.
The Rise of Far-Right Influence in Europe: Amid concerns over the potential return of far-right Donald Trump to power in the US, Keir Starmer expressed his concern about the growing influence of far-right groups in the UK and Europe. He called on progressive political parties in Europe to unite against this shared challenge, warning that the far-right is promoting dangerous ideas that threaten European democracies. Starmer’s concerns follow the UK Reform Party’s electoral success, led by Nigel Farage, who won about 14% of the votes in the general election—one of the highest percentages ever secured by a far-right British party. England and Northern Ireland also witnessed riots by far-right groups in early August 2024, raising concerns that they could pose a real electoral threat to the Labour Party in the future. Similarly, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces intense pressure from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, with polls indicating that Scholz’s party might face an electoral defeat in 2025. Macron’s party also suffered a crushing defeat in the early parliamentary elections held in July 2024, nearly handing victory to the far-right in France, before the left managed to turn the tide by securing the most seats in the French parliament.
Shared Understandings
During Keir Starmer’s visit to Germany and France, there were extensive discussions between the leaders of both countries on several key issues, primarily the enhancement of UK-German relations, continued support for Ukraine, and combating illegal migration. The key outcomes of this visit can be summarized as follows:
Enhancing UK-German Relations: Following a meeting between Starmer and Scholz, a joint statement was issued by both countries agreeing to start negotiations for a new comprehensive treaty aimed at taking UK-German relations to the “next level.” This would focus on bilateral cooperation across various fields, with an emphasis on defense and security collaboration, as well as fostering economic and technological growth. Starmer described this announcement as an important step toward achieving strategic partnerships that enhance the interests of both countries amid increasing global challenges that require close cooperation between European nations. Berlin is expected to play a pivotal role in attempts to bring the UK back into the European fold.
A timeline was set to conclude negotiations by early next year (2025), reflecting their desire to establish a solid foundation for future relations. The treaty is intended to be “fully compatible with Germany’s EU membership and the UK’s relationship with the EU,” according to the joint statement. However, Starmer expressed his desire to conclude negotiations by the end of this year (2024), highlighting the importance of the timeline in light of polling data indicating a decline in the popularity of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party.
Starmer’s Firm Stance on Brexit: Despite his commitment to resetting the UK’s relations with the EU, Starmer confirmed that Britain has no intention of rejoining the EU, the Single Market, or the Customs Union. This reflects Starmer’s determination to strike a balance between improving relations with the EU and maintaining the UK’s independence post-Brexit. At the same time, Starmer aims to negotiate new relationships with the EU, including enhancing trade and reducing barriers to cooperation in various fields such as the economy, education, and defense.
In comments issued by the Prime Minister’s Office before Starmer’s departure for Berlin, he stated that his government has an opportunity to reset its relationship with Europe and pursue genuine and ambitious partnerships that benefit the British people. “We need to move beyond Brexit and repair the broken relationships left by the previous government. This work started at last month’s European Political Community meeting, and I am determined to continue it,” he said, adding that “strengthening our ties with these countries is crucial, not only in addressing the global issue of illegal migration but also in boosting economic growth across the continent and particularly in the UK, which is one of my government’s primary tasks.”
Continued Support for Ukraine: Starmer discussed with Scholz and Macron the need to continue military support for Ukraine, especially as all three countries were committed to providing significant aid to Ukraine throughout 2023, helping it resist Russian aggression. Discussions focused on sustaining this support, particularly considering Germany’s plans to reduce aid to Ukraine by 50% in 2025.
According to leaked documents obtained by “The Guardian” newspaper, Germany’s plans to cut military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine come at a time when Kyiv is preparing for an escalation of the conflict with Moscow. The Guardian’s report indicates that Kyiv fears a significant reduction in Western support, leading to serious consequences. However, Starmer affirmed that the UK would remain a steadfast supporter of Ukraine, though it might reconsider its position if Scholz’s government persisted in its aid cuts, making Britain the largest European supporter of Ukraine. He also pointed out that ongoing elections in Europe and the United States could affect Western support for Ukraine, which he believes has become a major problem for Kyiv. Macron said that European countries, including France, must continue to support Ukraine, emphasizing that Russia’s actions pose a threat to international peace and security. In their joint statement, the three leaders committed to providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine to “preserve and protect the country’s independence and territorial integrity.”
Fighting Illegal Migration: Scholz and Starmer agreed to cooperate to combat the rising illegal migration through the English Channel. The two leaders announced that their countries would work together to tackle this global challenge, stressing the need for a common European solution. This cooperation would include the establishment of a joint working group, involving the relevant British and German authorities, to share intelligence and strengthen law enforcement measures. Starmer emphasized that his government is determined to find solutions to the problem of illegal migration, which he described as a threat to the security and stability of the UK and Europe.
Scholz, in turn, emphasized the importance of closer cooperation between European countries to tackle illegal migration. He highlighted that Germany has been facing a significant increase in the number of asylum seekers, particularly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and that European countries need to work together to find a solution that respects human rights and international law. Both leaders agreed that the current situation requires a more coordinated approach, including the strengthening of border controls and the development of new policies to address the root causes of migration. They also discussed the possibility of cooperating with other European countries and international organizations to address this issue more effectively.
Cautious Optimism
Keir Starmer’s European tour represents a significant step toward resetting the UK’s relations with key European powers, particularly Germany and France. His efforts to strengthen ties with these countries, particularly in defense and economic cooperation, align with his broader strategy of rebuilding the UK’s post-Brexit relations with Europe. However, several challenges remain, including the potential impact of declining Western support for Ukraine, the ongoing issue of illegal migration, and the rise of far-right influence in Europe. While Starmer has made progress in his efforts to reset relations with Europe, the success of his strategy will depend on how effectively he can navigate these challenges and build on the momentum gained during his European tour.
