Security is no longer limited to traditional threats like wars, but now also encompasses unconventional threats such as climate change. Traditional security threats impact the burdens and costs associated with climate phenomena, as wars and conflicts can drive up energy and food prices, exacerbating instability. This was evident in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has been a focal point for NATO and will remain so for some time. However, NATO’s focus on traditional security should not come at the expense of addressing climate-related security challenges. Climate changes could affect NATO’s capabilities and introduce new technical and geopolitical challenges, increasing its overall security pressures.
In this context, the importance of the study by Anum Farhan and others from Chatham House in July 2023 becomes clear. Titled “Preparing NATO for Climate-Related Security Challenges”, the study highlighted the security burdens facing NATO due to climate changes. It called for various measures to mitigate and adapt to these effects, including building political consensus among member states to establish an agenda to reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 and become carbon-neutral by 2050.
NATO and Climate Security:
NATO’s 2023 summit presents a key opportunity to highlight climate change as a security priority and lead the way in protecting allies from future climate-related shocks. Climate change affects the security of populations by disrupting access to resources, increasing migration, and weakening states’ ability to provide public services, all of which can lead to political instability. As a cross-border threat, climate change impacts the international community, whose organizations must anticipate risks and manage crises to address these changes.
Recognizing this, NATO has realized the need to strengthen its ability to handle the dimensions of climate change, especially since these responsibilities coincide with an ongoing security challenge: the Russian intervention in Ukraine in February 2022. Additionally, emerging and disruptive technologies, as well as economic security issues, have brought collective defense back to the forefront. Yet, it is essential that the war and the associated concerns over traditional security threats do not distract member states from efforts to tackle climate-related instability. As the war intensifies, balancing traditional security threats with climate change has become increasingly delicate for NATO, considering the following points:
1. Climate Change as a Multiplying Threat:
Climate change is considered a “threat multiplier,” directly affecting NATO’s military capabilities. Record heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods, and hurricane seasons will weaken NATO personnel, equipment, weapons, tactics, and infrastructure. These climate risks also impact NATO’s resources and policy priorities, making it more vulnerable to other threats, including conventional military attacks.
2. Pressures from Carbon Emissions:
At current emission levels, by 2030, more than 400 million people globally are expected to experience extreme heat each year. NATO member states are not immune to this; they are already suffering from rising temperatures that have adversely impacted military operations. For example, a 2019 military maneuver in Poland saw temperatures exceed 40°C, affecting the physical and mental health of soldiers. In 2018, the U.S. Army reported 2,792 cases of heat-related injuries among its personnel.
Carbon emissions also affect military bases. The U.S. Department of Defense revealed that two-thirds of its bases, including Hampton Roads in Virginia—a strategic hub for NATO—are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and severe flooding, compromising their operation. Similarly, major ports like Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg, which serve NATO’s eastern flank, are also at risk. In Alaska, thawing permafrost leaves military installations prone to collapse. In July 2022, military installations faced threats such as a melting runway at a Royal Air Force base in the UK.
3. Climate Change and Geopolitical Effects:
Climate change may lead to social instability, state collapse, and increased armed violence, all of which would affect NATO’s security and defense posture. Societal unrest from climate-driven impacts requires a strategic focus on resilience-building to absorb and recover from shocks quickly.
4. Increasing Demands on NATO:
Climate change challenges NATO’s commitment to protecting allies and populations, requiring a larger role for military forces in humanitarian aid and disaster relief. NATO countries are under increasing pressure to respond to climate-related events. In 2022, more than 10 European nations mobilized their forces to combat wildfires. Climate disasters also caused significant internal displacement within European countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Spain, France, and Germany, leading to the deployment of armed forces in some cases.
Climate Change and NATO’s Strategy:
NATO now recognizes climate change as a transnational crisis and a factor that exacerbates security threats at tactical, operational, and strategic levels. In response, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg incorporated climate change into the alliance’s Strategic Concept for 2022, outlining the key challenges in this area over the next decade. Consequently, climate considerations have been integrated into NATO’s official mandate, embedding climate change into its core missions: collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security. This integration aims to assess the impact of climate change on defense and security, contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improve energy efficiency, and invest in transitioning to clean energy sources and green technologies—all while ensuring military effectiveness and maintaining credible deterrence and defense capabilities.
The inclusion of climate change in NATO’s strategic concept underscores various principles, including redefining the resilience of member states’ armies by incorporating definitions of civil preparedness and adapting to climate risks. This ensures operational readiness and military preparedness during training exercises, guarantees the continuity of essential government services, and enhances the ability to respond to mass casualties and devastating health crises. To achieve this, NATO has outlined three priority areas for implementation: political and institutional structures, climate risk forecasting mechanisms, and operational resilience to address climate-related security challenges. These priorities are based on:
- Strengthening political and institutional structures: There is a need for political commitment to climate security. As part of NATO’s efforts to implement the 2030 Agenda, which aims to reduce emissions by 45%, this goal currently applies only to NATO’s military headquarters, facilities, and owned assets—a relatively small portion of its infrastructure. NATO must exert pressure on its allies to set their own military emissions targets and submit annual reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
- Investing in cultural change: Building resilience to climate impacts requires NATO to invest in cultural shifts. Effective implementation of the Climate and Security Action Plan necessitates significant investments in resources and personnel within NATO headquarters. Specifically, this includes funding for staff structures like the Emerging Security Challenges Division, responsible for developing NATO’s strategy to address climate-related security threats. Educating personnel about the connection between climate and security could prevent the issue from being viewed as marginal or separate, integrating it fully into NATO’s security framework.
- Enhancing climate risk forecasting mechanisms: NATO has various tools for gathering intelligence and data on climate trends. For instance, NATO fleets possess advanced sensors to monitor oceans and weather, enabling them to measure and track changes in Arctic ice. Additionally, NATO is investing in its space-based monitoring systems to track ocean warming and desertification. This provides a critical database for NATO’s annual climate and security impact assessments. NATO’s capability to coordinate a multinational military effort to measure, monitor, and evaluate climate fluctuations on infrastructure, operations, and overall security could contribute to highly accurate models and an early warning system.
- Boosting operational resilience: Prioritizing the implementation of resilience strategies is crucial to enhance effectiveness, military capability, and readiness while simultaneously achieving climate goals. NATO is injecting new energy, resources, and capabilities into existing partnership programs, increasing political dialogue and consultation at the ministerial level, and strengthening civil-military cooperation and partnerships between the public and private sectors.
In summary, adapting to climate change in the era of geopolitical competition, especially in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, is essential. Balancing immediate and long-term challenges means keeping climate as a top priority on NATO’s political agenda through political and diplomatic consultations and knowledge sharing. NATO should also strengthen its relations with climate partners by establishing a cooperative network based on learning to accelerate knowledge exchange and participate in designing regional assessments and forecasts.
If NATO is serious about its climate adaptation commitments and effective mitigation measures, it must build credibility in some of the countries most affected by climate change. This includes supporting climate-vulnerable countries in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa to build resilience and mitigate the cascading effects of security threats. Additionally, NATO must take concrete steps to support emission reductions at its headquarters and among member states through transparent and inclusive mechanisms. This approach could bolster NATO’s credibility as a military actor in the climate space, granting it a stronger foothold in the international climate community.
Source: Anum Farhan, Signe Kossmann and Armida van Rij, Preparing NATO for climate-related security challenges, Research Paper, International Security Programme, Chatham House, July 2023.
