Security dictates the future of Asia. This statement summarizes one of the most critical conditions for the realization of the “Asian Century” predictions, which assume the decline of the Western Anglo-Saxon civilization in the foreseeable future and the rise of alternative Asian powers with a different value system to the forefront of the global order. Despite the main powers in the continent possessing the capabilities to challenge the current international system, their involvement in regional conflicts and extended polarization hinders or, at best, delays their ability to compete for global leadership.
The Relationship between Regional Security and the International System
The link between regional security and transformations in the structure of the international system is a central theme in international relations theories, as follows:
Power Transition Theories:
Power transition theories, spearheaded by scholars like A.F.K. Organski, suggest that the rise of a new power in the international system often leads to a clash between the rising challenger and the traditional hegemon. This clash can lead to war due to various reasons, including preempting changes in the international system or miscalculating capabilities and intentions.
New realism suggests that disruption in the international system is related to changes in the distribution of power. For example, Organski posits that powerful states dissatisfied with the status quo in the international system, and possessing sufficient material capabilities, may perceive an opportunity to impose a new global reality. In contrast, traditional major powers will seek to prevent this challenger from altering the balance of power, which, according to Robert Gilpin, may lead to the outbreak of hegemonic wars in the international system.
In the context of regional security, power transition theories focus on how the rise of regional powers impacts international security. The emergence of a new regional power can shift regional balances and affect global politics, especially if this power seeks to challenge or modify the existing order.
Civilizational State Model:
Christopher Coker focuses on the civilizational state model, which he sees as predominant in both China and Russia. Unlike the nation-state model, some states claim to represent separate civilizations, which supports their expansionist policies externally and increases the drive for militarizing regional policies and active involvement in international relations. This means that the Asian century might be dominated by a struggle for leadership in the international system between states dissatisfied with the status quo and those aiming to restore imperial glory based on their civilizational heritage.
Regional Security Complexes:
Beyond these confrontational views, other theories focus on the state of regional security itself. For instance, Barry Buzan is interested in the concept of regional security complexes—groups of states that are security-bound to each other in ways that make their security indivisible. Buzan argues that threats and disturbances within these complexes can significantly impact the international system by reshaping alliances and defense policies, leading to changes in global power balances.
According to Immanuel Wallerstein, global security represents a complex where multiple factors, including regional security and the global economy, interact. Changes in the regional environment, such as the rise of a regional power or internal conflicts in a particular state, can affect the structure of the global system and the hierarchy of power within it.
This is not limited to military security but extends to economic security as well. Robert Gilpin argues that major economic transformations can lead to shifts in the global balance of power, resulting in periods of conflict and transition. In this sense, the economic rise of a particular bloc may lead to confrontational shifts and disturbances that affect the stability of the global system as a whole.
The idea here is that the relationship between regional security and the structure of the international system is not a simple bipolar equation but rather an integrated system involving multiple factors and networks of mutual influence, including various actors, whether states or non-state actors. The most important aspect is the “complex interdependence” among actors within this networked system, meaning that internal threats in a particular state can cross borders, affecting the regional security situation as a whole, and subsequently impacting global security.
Regional/Global Security Network:
The concept of the regional/global security network serves as a framework for interpreting the interconnectedness between regional and global security transformations. The internal vulnerabilities of a state in a key region can impact the security landscape of the entire region and the global system, with varying degrees of severity depending on the level of interconnectedness between the state, the regional system, and the global system.
According to these theoretical perspectives, the Asian rise in the international system is the final outcome of the regional security situation, which is closely linked to internal disturbances, regional interactions, the sustainability of economic growth, the influence of major international powers on the regional system, the effectiveness of regional cooperation and integration, collective security arrangements, and the intensity of polarization among the major Asian powers.
The Emergence of the “Asian Rise” Concept
From its inception, the term “Asian rise” has been highly political, reflecting mixed views between heralding a “non-Western” future and warning of the “end of Western” Anglo-Saxon civilization. In the mid-1980s, with the emergence of the “Asian Tigers,” the term began to be used in congressional hearings by the Foreign Relations Committee, coinciding with its mention during a meeting between Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping and Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. Deng noted that predicting the next century to be the Asian-Pacific Century was not entirely accurate.
According to Parag Khanna in his book “The Future is Asian: Global Order in the Twenty-First Century,” the “American Century” is indeed receding, making way for a “new Asian Century” led by rising powers in the continent, primarily China, India, Japan, and South Korea, who are shaping new rules for an emerging global order.
These assertions rely on aggregate indicators treating the vast continent as a single bloc, such as Asia’s dominance in land area, covering approximately 30% of the Earth’s landmass, and its population, totaling 4.77 billion people, which constitutes about 60% of the global population. This large population means a massive consumer market and a significant workforce.
Furthermore, the rapid GDP growth of major Asian powers like China, India, Japan, and South Korea, along with the continent being dubbed the “world’s factory” and the main center for global manufacturing and trade, highlights Asia’s rising influence. The continent also experiences rapid urbanization, increased demand for services and infrastructure, and substantial investments in research, development, and advanced technology.
However, despite this bright picture, the term “Asian rise” represents varying perspectives, ranging from “wishful thinking” to “political scare tactics,” due to several considerations. Chief among these is the significant disparities within the continent in terms of economy, development, and politics. Countries like Japan and Singapore enjoy high levels of income and technological advancement, while others, like Afghanistan and Myanmar, face significant developmental and political challenges.
While the term “Asian Century” focuses on economic growth and technological progress, it overlooks other dimensions like environmental sustainability, social justice, quality of life, and the environmental cost of rapid economic growth.
Asia is not a monolithic entity; geopolitical tensions have deepened divisions and exacerbated polarization across the continent, competition for resources, regional influence, multiple border conflicts, and opposing alliances. Thus, according to this critical perspective, the Asian rise is contingent upon regional integration and multilateral cooperation.
In sum, the most likely scenario is the rise of certain Asian powers pushing for changes in the current international system to better reflect their interests, values, and vision for the future of the world, with China, India, and Japan leading the way.
Regional Security Threats in Asia
The security landscape in Asia exemplifies the disturbances in a regional system governed by intense polarization among its main powers. The vastness of the continent allows for significant disparities among countries in terms of threat levels and perceptions, affecting the likelihood of a regional power shift from the Atlantic bloc to the Asian bloc. The main regional security threats in Asia include:
Drifting Towards a US-China Confrontation:
This conflict is the primary driver of power shifts in the international system. Warnings of the “Thucydides Trap” have persisted since China’s economic rise began, referring to a potential military clash between Washington and Beijing at the heart of Asia, potentially leading to a full-scale war between the two superpowers.
The US seeks to contain China’s rise through a strategy of encirclement via a network of security alliances with traditional Asian powers like Japan and South Korea and encouraging its non-Asian allies to participate in anti-China security arrangements, such as the AUKUS agreement between the US, Britain, and Australia. This agreement lays the military and security foundation for a long-term confrontation with China in the Indo-Pacific region.
The US is also strengthening regional partnerships with Asian countries like India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand to counter China’s expansion in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean and to contain Chinese naval movements in its immediate geographic vicinity, obstructing attempts to control the region through island-building and increased military presence.
The conflict between the two powers extends beyond alliances and military maneuvers to include a fierce trade and economic war, attempts to interfere in internal interactions, and technological restrictions to prevent China from acquiring advanced semiconductor technology, with China threatening to restrict the export of rare earth elements.
Expansion of Regional Conflict Hotspots:
Asia, with its vast expanse, is home to numerous regional and local conflict hotspots, notably the decades-long Indo-Pakistani conflict over Kashmir, the most prominent regional conflict in South Asia, where clashes along the Line of Control are frequent, and non-state armed actors are active.
On another level, border conflicts between China and neighboring countries are ongoing on two fronts: maritime disputes, including intermittent military confrontations with the Philippines in the South China Sea over the Spratly Islands, where China is building artificial islands and military bases to assert its sovereignty, and disputes with Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei over these islands and control areas
On the second front, China is involved in border disputes with neighboring countries, the most intense being with India in the Doklam Plateau region and in Ladakh and Aksai Chin, where periodic military clashes occur. Despite attempts to de-escalate tensions through joint border monitoring, sporadic clashes and intense diplomatic tensions continue, with both countries reinforcing their military presence and security measures in disputed areas.
Despite Chinese and Indian efforts to contain the situation, the ongoing regional competition between the two giants extends beyond their borders, with each country vying for influence and expansion in neighboring regions, further complicating the security landscape and increasing the potential for conflict.
North Korea’s Nuclear Program:
North Korea’s continued pursuit of nuclear and missile programs represents a chronic regional security dilemma in Asia, especially for neighboring countries South Korea and Japan, and is a major concern for the US. Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, North Korea refuses to abandon its nuclear arsenal and missile development.
Periodic missile tests and North Korea’s claim of achieving the ability to strike US mainland targets with long-range missiles have heightened the security tension, leading to the deployment of advanced missile defense systems in South Korea and Japan. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions destabilize the region, prompting military and security responses from neighboring countries and further entrenching the US military presence in Asia.
Internal Conflicts and Separatist Movements:
Asia’s vastness also includes areas plagued by internal conflicts and separatist movements, such as the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, ethnic and religious conflicts in India, and the challenges posed by separatist movements in Xinjiang and Tibet in China. These conflicts threaten the stability of individual countries and have broader regional implications, including refugee flows, transnational crime, and the potential for regional powers to intervene.
Economic Disparities and Social Unrest:
Significant economic disparities within and between Asian countries fuel social unrest, which in turn can lead to political instability and security challenges. The economic success of countries like China and Japan contrasts sharply with the poverty and underdevelopment in parts of South Asia and Southeast Asia, leading to migration, human trafficking, and other security concerns.
Conclusion:
In summary, while the concept of the “Asian Century” reflects Asia’s potential for global leadership based on economic growth and technological progress, it is tempered by significant regional security challenges. The continent’s future in the global order depends on how these security dilemmas are managed, particularly the US-China rivalry, regional conflicts, and internal challenges. The outcome of these security dynamics will determine whether Asia can rise as a cohesive bloc or remain divided and hindered by its internal and regional conflicts.
