Despite the global focus on the rising threat of terrorism in Africa, the terrorist threat in Asia remains dangerously dormant, with a gradual expansion driven by structural factors deeply rooted in the continent. Asia is the primary stronghold of Al-Qaeda, and the deep divisions within its countries, along with ongoing national crises, have contributed to this spread. This expansion is not only due to the increasing activities of transnational terrorist groups but also reflects the political and social fragility of many Asian countries. Terrorist organizations exploit sectarian and ethnic divisions, exacerbating political tensions to create permanent safe havens for terrorism.
The State of “Asian Terrorism”
The terrorist events that occurred in Asia in 2024 point to a series of important trends that reflect the evolution of terrorist activity in the region. These trends can be divided into key axes, including the expansion of operational maps, the rise in attacks linked to political tensions, and the growing activity of transnational terrorist groups.
Expansion of Operations and Targets: Terrorist groups are seeking to extend their operations beyond their traditional areas of activity. This expansion is evident in attacks such as those carried out by ISIS – Khorasan Province in new regions, including Russia. For instance, the attack in Krasnogorsk, Russia, on March 22, 2024, which involved shootings and bombings at Crocus City Hall, reflects the group’s ability to reach areas previously considered outside its traditional sphere of influence. Similarly, the port of Gwadar in Pakistan was attacked by groups like the “Majid Brigade” on March 20, 2024, indicating a broader strategy targeting critical infrastructure and economically significant sites.
Increase in Local Terrorism Linked to Political Tensions: Another major trend in 2024 is the rise of terrorist operations connected to political unrest. Terrorist groups exploit volatile political climates to achieve their goals. The assassination attempt on opposition leader Lee Jae-myung in South Korea on January 2, 2024, is a clear example, as a prominent political figure was targeted during a sensitive period before legislative elections. These attacks aim to destabilize the political landscape and escalate social tensions.
Rise of Transnational Terrorist Organizations: The year 2024 witnessed a significant increase in the activities of transnational terrorist groups like ISIS – Khorasan Province. Their attacks in Iran, Afghanistan, and Russia demonstrate their ability to operate across borders and target multiple regions. For example, the bombing of New Kabul Bank in Kandahar, Afghanistan, on March 21, 2024, and the suicide attacks in Kerman, Iran, on January 3, 2024, highlight the group’s strategy of expanding its operations to strike multiple countries simultaneously through decentralized cells that act independently of direct leadership.
Targeting Foreign Interests and Critical Infrastructure: Terrorist groups are increasingly targeting foreign interests and vital infrastructure in Asia. The attack on a bus carrying Chinese citizens in Shangla, Pakistan, on March 26, 2024, exemplifies the targeting of foreign interests within the context of regional tensions. Such attacks indicate that terrorist groups are aware of the strategic importance of hitting projects and infrastructure with international implications.
Increase in Coordinated and Complex Attacks: The coordinated attacks in Dagestan, Russia, on June 23, 2024, which targeted Jewish synagogues and Eastern Orthodox churches, indicate a growing trend toward complex and carefully planned terrorist operations. These types of attacks reflect the ability of terrorist organizations to execute multiple operations simultaneously, posing an increased security challenge for the targeted states.
Why Asia?
The rise of terrorist threats in Asia can be understood through several structural factors that fuel terrorism in the continent and hinder efforts to control or dismantle its networks. These factors range from the continent’s turbulent geopolitical state, widespread internal conflicts in many of its countries, social divisions, and economic conditions that allow terrorism to spread and establish roots in these nations.
Geopolitical Complexities of Regional Interactions: The geopolitical complexities that contribute to the spread and entrenchment of terrorism include border and sectarian conflicts between Asian countries, such as the dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, the border conflicts between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the cross-border minorities in the Balochistan region spanning Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. These disputes create favorable conditions for the growth of extremist groups, which see themselves as defending a certain identity or cause against the “other.” The external factor plays a crucial role in the activity of terrorist organizations. In Afghanistan, the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban’s control of the government have provided a safe haven for al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. Furthermore, the U.S. war on Afghanistan sustained the presence of terrorist organizations there by fostering an alliance between the Taliban and al-Qaeda to confront the American military presence, further entrenching terrorism within local communities.
Social Deprivation and Imbalance: Economic and social factors play a pivotal role in fostering a fertile ground for terrorism in Asia. Poverty, unemployment, and social marginalization increase polarization and the recruitment of young people into extremist groups. Social deprivation exacerbates anger and frustration, leading individuals to join extremist groups as a way to express their dissatisfaction in a context where poverty and unemployment are widespread. Additionally, the unequal distribution of wealth and social marginalization contribute to feelings of injustice, making people more susceptible to recruitment by terrorist groups, especially among minorities. Groups like Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines and Ansar al-Dawla in Indonesia exploit political and social unrest in the region to expand their influence and launch attacks against government and foreign interests.
Aggravation of National Identity Crises: National identity crises are exploited by extremist groups to fulfill individuals’ need for belonging, reinforcing a sense of superiority or victimhood, which facilitates recruitment. ISIS, al-Qaeda, and their affiliates use religious identity to encourage individuals to join their ranks, framing it as a fight against the “other” due to perceived religious persecution. Extremist groups present themselves as defenders of the faith against “enemies,” making it easier to recruit individuals who feel their religious identity is threatened.
Exploitation of Social Networks: Terrorist groups exploit social networks and relationships of trust and kinship that extend among residents of peripheral regions beyond the control of central governments in some Asian countries. These networks are used to recruit individuals and establish permanent safe havens for these groups, turning these areas into strongholds of terrorist activity.
Utilizing Technological Innovation for Propaganda and Communication: Terrorist organizations in Asia are among the most adept non-state armed actors at benefiting from technological innovation. They utilize encrypted communication apps like Telegram to evade government surveillance, drones for reconnaissance, monitoring, and carrying out attacks with improvised explosives, and social media platforms to spread their ideology and recruit members. These factors create new battlegrounds in the fight against terrorism, necessitating different tactics as terrorist groups are able to deliver devastating blows with limited resources.
Future Directions
As terrorist activities continue to escalate in Asia, a central question arises regarding the future of these threats and how they may evolve in the coming years. In this context, it is expected that terrorist organizations will develop their capabilities, exploiting the vast expanse of the Asian continent to expand the scope of their operations and enhance their tactics to evade security authorities. The potential trends in terrorist activities include the following:
Increased Reliance on Modern Technology: Terrorist groups are expected to increasingly exploit advanced technologies such as drones, cyberattacks, and encrypted communications to carry out complex and hard-to-detect attacks. These tools could enable them to execute more precise and effective operations while reducing the risk of detection and capture.
Rise in Lone Wolf Attacks: Due to increasing pressure on large organizations, we may witness a rise in attacks carried out by independent individuals or small cells that are difficult to trace. These “lone wolves” often draw inspiration from online propaganda and operate independently, without direct contact with major organizations.
Expansion of Terrorist Operations: Terrorist groups may seek to expand their operations beyond traditional conflict zones in Asia by targeting other relatively safe countries in the region. This expansion could involve using border areas as logistical bases or safe havens. For example, ISIS-K is expected to expand in Central and South Asia, especially in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, infiltrating neighboring countries from Afghanistan. Additionally, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan is likely to exploit the security chaos in Afghanistan to launch cross-border attacks and establish a presence in Afghan border areas beyond the reach of Pakistani authorities, aiming to target Pakistani border points.
Increased Terrorist Threats in South and Southeast Asia: Terrorist groups in the Philippines may exploit the vast maritime borders between the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia to carry out attacks and kidnappings in border areas and territorial waters. Groups like Ansar al-Tawhid could take advantage of the unstable security situations in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to launch terrorist attacks. Rising sectarian unrest in India and tensions between religious communities could create a fertile environment for the spread of terrorism and extremism. Recent activity by Indian security forces in uncovering sleeper terrorist cells and thwarting planned attacks, particularly in the Indian-administered part of Jammu and Kashmir, underscores this threat.
In conclusion, Asia will likely remain a key arena for terrorist activities in the coming years, as terrorist groups shift toward more complex attacks using advanced technology. This presents new challenges for security agencies and may trigger a technological arms race between states and terrorist organizations. Success in countering these threats will depend on nations’ ability to adapt to rapid changes, enhance regional and international cooperation, and develop comprehensive strategies to address the root causes of extremism. There remains an urgent need for flexible and innovative approaches to ensure the region’s long-term stability and security.
