The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), located in Central Africa, has seen a surge in terrorist operations in recent times. The latest incidents occurred on August 10, 2024, in the Beni region, situated in the eastern part of the country, where two armed attacks resulted in at least 18 deaths, about 14 missing persons, and the burning of four residential houses, according to local sources. The attacks have been attributed to the “Allied Democratic Forces” (ADF), affiliated with ISIS in Central Africa. These events highlight several key features and potential consequences for the country’s internal security and stability.
Key Features
There are several notable aspects of the recent terrorist attacks in the DRC:
Increased Terrorist Activity in Eastern Congo: The recent terrorist attacks in the DRC have mainly occurred in the eastern part of the country, particularly in the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri. The most recent attack happened in Beni on August 10, 2024. Earlier attacks in the same region included an assault on June 12, 2024, attributed to rebels linked to ISIS, which resulted in at least 42 deaths, as per local authorities. There was also an armed attack in the village of Masala on June 9, 2024, and another attack on the villages of Nakuta, Nyaongo, and Wesa in the Mambasa district of Ituri province in mid-May 2024, which killed at least 17 civilians.
Growing Violence Linked to the Allied Democratic Forces: The ADF, one of the major rebel groups operating in eastern DRC, has been increasingly blamed for escalating violence in the region. Founded in 1995, this group is based in the mountainous border region between the DRC and Uganda and originally consisted of Ugandan rebels based in eastern Congo. The U.S. Treasury Department and the United Nations have imposed sanctions on the ADF under the UN Security Council sanctions regime due to their violent acts and atrocities. ISIS recognized this group as its local branch, “Islamic State Central Africa Province,” in late 2018, and the U.S. classified it as a terrorist organization in 2021.
Rising Control by the March 23 Movement: The March 23 Movement (M23) is one of the most dangerous armed groups in eastern DRC, seeking to control large territories in North Kivu province since the end of 2021. They captured the city of Kirumba in late June 2024, the largest city in the southern Lubero territory, which is a significant commercial hub with over 120,000 residents. The M23 was formed in April 2012, taking its name from a peace agreement signed with the Congolese government on March 23, 2009. The group consists of around 1,500 soldiers. Although the peace agreement led to a decade of relative calm, tensions resumed when the M23 attacked Congolese army positions in Rutshuru near the Ugandan and Rwandan borders on March 28, 2022, with renewed clashes on April 6, 2022, forcing tens of thousands to flee to Uganda. The M23 carried out numerous attacks in coordination with the ADF between October 2022 and March 2023, killing at least 1,300 people, including around 100 children.
Targeting of Natural Resources: The desire to control valuable natural resources is a primary motivation behind the violence between armed groups and the central government in eastern DRC. The region is rich in resources like uranium, found in South Kivu and Katanga provinces, used as fuel in nuclear reactors and in nuclear fission, as well as coltan, used in the production of nuclear reactors, aircraft engines, missiles, and high-precision devices. The DRC holds about 80% of the world’s coltan reserves, mainly located in Kivu and Maniema provinces, near the Rwandan border. Additionally, southeastern DRC has significant lithium deposits, estimated at over 130 million tons.
Potential Implications
The recent surge in violence and terrorist attacks in the DRC could lead to several potential consequences:
Increased Violence and Armed Conflict: The presence of over 120 armed groups, primarily in North and South Kivu, enhances the likelihood of increased violence. Many of these groups have already gained control over various regions, most recently with the M23 capturing the city of Kanyabayonga, about 100 kilometers from the North Kivu capital, Goma, in late June 2024. This city serves as a critical access point to the commercial centers of Butembo and Beni.
Reduced Central Government Control: The upcoming withdrawal of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), which began operations in July 2010, could lead to increased security vacuums. Following a request from President Tshisekedi’s government in September 2023, the UN Security Council decided in December 2023 on a phased withdrawal of the 15,000-strong mission by the end of 2024. The first phase of the withdrawal was completed in late June 2024, but the second phase has been delayed due to worsening security conditions in eastern Congo. Additionally, the withdrawal of the East African Community regional force in November 2023, also at the request of the Congolese government, began in December 2023.
Economic Deterioration: The ongoing conflict exacerbates the economic challenges in the DRC, one of the world’s poorest countries. According to the World Bank, about 74.6% of the population lived on less than $2.15 a day in 2023, and one in six people in sub-Saharan Africa facing extreme poverty lives in the DRC. The unemployment rate was 2.48% in 2022.
Worsening Humanitarian Situation: The DRC is one of the most food-insecure countries globally, with over 23 million people suffering from food insecurity despite its fertile agricultural land. Malnutrition rates among children have also doubled, with an average of 800 children affected monthly in 2023, according to Médecins Sans Frontières. The same organization reported high rates of sexual violence, especially against women searching for food or wood, who are forced to venture far from camps due to limited access to essential supplies. Forced displacement is also rising, with around 7.2 million people displaced, mostly in the eastern regions, according to UN estimates.
Health Deterioration in Eastern Regions: The intensifying conflict has worsened health conditions in eastern DRC, where the war has directly harmed civilians and increased disease risk. In 2024, nearly 300,000 measles cases were reported, leading to at least 6,000 deaths. Cholera is also widespread, and monkeypox is prevalent in forested areas where people rely on hunting and fishing for food. The vaccination coverage among children under five has reached its lowest level in three decades, according to the World Health Organization.
Increased Tensions with Rwanda and Uganda: The DRC has repeatedly accused Rwanda of directly supporting the M23 rebel movement. This was highlighted in a statement by Congolese government spokesman Patrick Muyaya in late 2022, and a UN report in July 2024, which claimed that between 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers were fighting the Congolese army and leading M23 operations. Rwanda has consistently denied providing any support to the M23. Escalating tensions could hinder the implementation of the Angola-brokered ceasefire on July 30, 2024, set to take effect in early August 2024.
As for Uganda, tensions have risen after the DRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Ugandan chargé d’affaires Matata Tuha, following a UN report alleging Ugandan support for the M23. The situation is likely to worsen, especially after reports that about 100 Congolese officers, armed with 43 weapons and ammunition, crossed into Uganda in early August 2024, according to Ugandan Defense Forces spokesman Kikunku Tabaro. Additionally, at least 2,500 refugees have fled to Uganda to escape the escalating violence and insecurity in eastern DRC.
Conclusion
The recent escalation in terrorist attacks in the DRC reflects the ongoing security deterioration in the country, particularly in the eastern regions. This suggests a likely increase in violence due to armed confrontations between groups like the ADF, the M23, and government forces. The future outlook indicates that the negative impacts of this conflict may extend beyond the DRC’s borders, affecting neighboring countries like Rwanda and Uganda. To mitigate these impacts, the Congolese government must adopt a comprehensive approach to addressing the root causes of the conflict, ensuring lasting peace and security in the country.
