Germany, the second-largest supporter of Ukraine after the United States, plans to cut its spending on Ukraine by half in 2025. This marks a significant turning point that could greatly affect the dynamics of European support for Ukraine. The reduction raises questions about Ukraine’s ability to continue its resistance as financial support wanes, particularly since this cut is planned to increase gradually in 2026 and 2027.
Financial Review
Germany’s reduction in aid to Ukraine is due to several key reasons:
First, a governmental agreement to control expenditures: In its effort to achieve savings in the 2025 budget, the German government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Liberal Party, agreed not to provide any additional aid to Ukraine beyond the four billion euros allocated in the budget draft. Additionally, there will be no extra spending for the remainder of 2024, beyond the previously agreed eight billion euros, which means halting funding for the IRIS-T anti-aircraft system for Kyiv, as well as artillery ammunition and drones, which were being considered for funding outside the 2024 budget.
Some opinions justify this governmental step by pointing out that Germany currently faces significant economic challenges, such as inflation and rising living costs. The GDP shrank by 0.3% in 2023 compared to 2022, affecting Germany’s ability to provide substantial foreign aid.
Second, domestic political pressures: Some political parties in Germany are exerting pressure to reduce aid to Ukraine, arguing that it impacts the internal German situation. Some analyses suggest that the reduction in military aid to Ukraine by the government is in response to demands from the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) party and the “Sarah Wagenknecht’s Alliance for Reason and Justice” (BSW), led by Sarah Wagenknecht, a breakaway from the Die Linke party. Other analyses suggest that Scholz intended to target his defense minister, Boris Pistorius, also from the Social Democratic Party, who is one of the strongest supporters of Ukraine, especially since he has become a favored figure among Germans.
The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung notes that Scholz is increasingly aligned with the ideas of Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who is obsessed with adhering to the Schuldenbremse (debt brake) policy and was seeking to fill a 12 billion euro gap. His future plan aims to reduce aid to Ukraine to three billion euros in 2026 and to half a billion euros in 2027.
Third, electoral calculations: The opposition Christian Democratic Party attacked the decision to cut German aid to Kyiv, arguing that the government is playing politics in a Trump-like manner by stopping aid to Ukraine to exploit it in internal conflicts. However, the difference is that supporting Ukraine is an investment in Germany’s own security.
The Christian Democratic Party also argued that Ukraine’s struggle for freedom would suffer due to the ongoing conflict within the “Traffic Light Coalition,” the name given to the current German government’s coalition. This step comes just days before German voters cast their ballots in regional elections in three eastern states: Saxony and Thuringia (on September 1) and Brandenburg (on September 22). In these states, voting intentions for the two political parties advocating an end to military support for Ukraine, namely the far-right Alternative for Germany and Sarah Wagenknecht’s radical left party, are rising. Meanwhile, the coalition parties in power are seeing a decline in voting intentions, so the coalition members have a shared interest in being cautious about supporting Ukraine.
Fourth, growing doubts about the effectiveness of aid to Kyiv: Although the German public still largely supports aiding Ukraine, this support has begun to wane. According to a poll published at the end of May 2024, 53% of Germans still support military aid to Ukraine, but this is 10% less than in May 2022. The majority in eastern Germany opposes this support. Some German opinions question the effectiveness of aid to Ukraine, especially since it has not yet achieved tangible results.
European Implications
The future of European aid to Ukraine may face significant challenges following Germany’s reduction in support, including:
First, the potential impact on European solidarity: Some circles believe that the reduction in German aid to Ukraine could weaken the unity and solidarity of European countries regarding the Ukrainian crisis, as Germany plays a pivotal role in the European Union. Any change in its policies could affect the collective European stance. In this context, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Oleksiy Makeiev stated that Europe’s security depends on Germany’s capability and political will to continue playing a leading role in supporting Ukraine. Some German media reports have noted that reducing German aid will lead to much higher subsequent costs than the savings, especially with the potential for large flows of Ukrainian refugees to Europe in the event of a Putin victory.
Second, increasing pressure on other European countries: Germany’s move could give strong momentum to the viewpoint defended by Donald Trump’s supporters regarding the pointlessness of continued American assistance to Ukraine when Europeans themselves have begun to stop. European comments on this move have been absent so far, out of a desire not to complicate the German political situation further, and in the hope that discussions within the Bundestag before the end of this year will allow for a revision of this measure. Some opinions suggest that some European countries still convinced of providing full support to Ukraine will take on more burdens to fill the gap left by Germany, exposing them to increased internal pressure and heightened tensions within the European Union. Others see this reduction as a way for the German government to push other contributors, especially France, which Berlin accuses of talking much but doing little, to take responsibility.
Third, Berlin’s attempt to mitigate criticism: In response to the uproar caused by this step, the German finance minister stated that he is willing to consider providing additional resources in the short term to meet Ukraine’s needs. Chancellor Scholz also pointed out that Germany stands firmly by Ukraine and has been its biggest European contributor in terms of financial, economic, and military aid, and will continue to be.
The German government says it is relying on the mechanism the G7 and the European Union intend to establish, which involves using frozen Russian assets worth around $300 billion to support Kyiv. Although there has been no concrete progress in this direction so far, Berlin believes that these funds will be available for use starting in 2025. Some circles defending the German government’s step argue that this reduction is not a violation of the promises made to Ukraine, as the use of frozen Russian assets will ensure that Ukraine receives more money next year (2025).
Fourth, the potential push for reevaluating European policies: Some European countries may begin to reevaluate their policies towards Ukraine, especially if the war continues for a long time. Some European voices are increasingly calling for a settlement with Russia through intensified diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. Other voices call for the deployment of UN forces to separate the warring parties as an alternative to Europeans bearing the cost of Ukraine’s resilience. On the other hand, some believe that the reduction of German support will only impact Ukraine financially since, in terms of military aid, Poland surpasses Germany.
Fifth, increasing challenges to Ukrainian military movements: Germany’s decision to gradually reduce its support for Ukraine comes amid France’s political crisis, which has stalled the formation of a new government, the United States’ focus on presidential election campaigns, and the new British government’s focus on addressing the aftermath of recent racial violence. In this context, the German decision is likely to increase pressure on Kyiv, especially amid its ongoing military operation in Kursk, and may prompt Ukraine to seek a quick resolution to the conflict, fearing that other Western countries might follow Germany’s lead.
In this regard, Ukrainian President Zelensky’s statements on August 27, 2024, about his readiness to present a plan to U.S. President Joe Biden to end the war during his visit to Washington in September 2024 can be interpreted. He mentioned that Ukraine’s cross-border attack in the Russian Kursk region is part of the plan.
In conclusion, the German government’s shift from the statement “Help Ukraine as long as necessary” at the beginning of the crisis to “No additional aid outside the 2025 budget” represents a transformation that could change the European landscape concerning continued support for Ukraine. This shift highlights the need for Europe to develop alternative strategies to ensure the continuity of this support, and it opens the door for reviewing current European defense policies.
