A significant book was published last weekend (September 20) by Springer, authored by a group of scholars under the supervision of researchers Jakob Lempp and Sebastian Mayer, titled:
Central Asia in a Multipolar World: Internal Change, External Actors, Regional Cooperation
This book discusses the political, economic, and social trends in Central Asia, which includes Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. These countries share many cultural and historical commonalities and face similar internal and external challenges. Despite their different paths of transformation and recurring tensions within the region, a shared regional identity has emerged since their independence in 1991.
In addition to covering their political systems, the book addresses a variety of topics such as human rights, media, terrorism, and civil society. It also examines bilateral relations with seven external actors.
The authors explore the opportunities and limitations of institutional regional cooperation in various fields.
The book is divided into 29 chapters across five sections. The first section introduces spatial concepts of Central Asia in the 19th and 20th centuries. Terms such as Turkestan, Central Asia, Greater Tartary, and Transoxiana partially overlap and differ concerning the territories of the five Central Asian countries and beyond. These terms and concepts not only emphasize regional commonalities but also often highlight differences. They can assert the autonomy of the defined region, but depending on the terminology, they may also stress its connection to Russia. Since discussions of regional concepts are always discussions of borders at the same time, such debates are inherently politically charged.
Even though the term “Central Asia” (along with many other designations) implies a high degree of coherence, the broader region is actually composed of distinct individual areas, which can be roughly divided into two types: the nomadic culture of the desert and steppe, and the settled culture of the oases. The former is characterized by deserts, mountains, and largely nomadic populations who rely on livestock for sustenance.
On the other hand, the latter, primarily located between the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, developed into urban populations over the centuries. These regions were Islamized in the early Middle Ages and developed an extensive administrative and educational system, including literature.
In the second section of the book, the political systems of the five countries are presented, focusing on both their constitutional systems, which emerged from the Soviet Union’s legacy in the early 1990s, and their institutional structures and political development since independence. Additionally, there is a focus on the “constitutional reality,” which diverges significantly from the “constitutional text.” The actual power structures and political processes are analyzed.
Surprisingly, despite the historical and cultural similarities between the five Central Asian countries, they only appear as a homogeneous bloc at first glance. Upon closer examination, distinct political, economic, and cultural profiles become apparent. For instance, Kyrgyzstan has distinguished itself from the other four authoritarian states studied here, as it possesses a more democratic internal structure. Kyrgyzstan was the only Central Asian country that Freedom House classified as a “democracy” in 2020. Therefore, it is discussed as a “democratic island.” However, recent developments, including the 2001 constitutional shift toward a presidential system, suggest that the country is moving closer to where the other states already stand.
All five countries have presidential systems, some with prime ministers. This applies to Kyrgyzstan as well—at least after the 2021 constitutional reform. In all five countries, presidents dominate the political power structure, and elections do not meet European democratic standards.
The third chapter addresses aspects of social change, the public sphere, and the analysis of transitions and democracy in Central Asian countries after their independence in the early 1990s. It concludes with a somewhat pessimistic outlook on the likelihood of achieving significant democracy, as authoritarian political regimes continue to dominate the region. These regimes, at best, attempt to legitimize themselves through democratic institutions and processes. The chapter also analyzes how nationalist tendencies, along with the influence of Russia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and China, contribute to anti-Western sentiments and opposition to human rights.
On the other hand, there is now considerable pressure for human rights reforms from the populations themselves, who are organizing through social media and increasingly insisting on adherence to international human rights standards. The chapter also illustrates how some of the five countries have managed to join the United Nations Human Rights Council, despite the general lack of political culture where civil society representatives and independent institutions coexist, although there is a growing official collaborative relationship between state institutions and civil society.
Regarding violent conflicts, it is surprising that the number of armed conflicts in Central Asia has remained relatively manageable since 1989, despite significant increases in other parts of the world and the overall rise in armed conflicts during the 1990s. The main exception is the civil war in Tajikistan between 1992 and 1997, which resulted in tens of thousands of deaths.
The conflicts include violent clashes between groups within a single region (southern Kyrgyzstan), conflicts against the regime (Tajikistan), and state violence (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan). The primary causes of conflict are weak institutions responsible for conflict management and political participation, as well as tensions stemming from socio-economic factors, such as unequal access to public goods like water or land, and competition among elite networks. However, polarizing constructions of collective identity and subsequent ethnic-political mobilization have played a significant role in shaping these conflicts.
The chapter dedicated to terrorism in the region highlights the fact that Central Asian countries have not experienced a major terrorist attack in recent years. It analyzes the “soft” and “hard” security measures taken by the five governments to prevent and combat violent extremism.
Nevertheless, counterterrorism remains high on the agenda, particularly given the strong experiences with terrorism in the 1990s, the large number of Central Asian citizens among foreign fighters in conflict zones like Syria and Iraq, and the fragile security situation in Afghanistan. The chapter assesses the role of foreign terrorist fighters and emphasizes the prominence of the five Central Asian countries in terms of the number of their citizens who traveled to conflict zones in Iraq and Syria, and the number of returnees.
Central Asian countries have developed valuable expertise that could benefit decision-making processes in other countries, particularly regarding “soft” policies such as repatriation, rehabilitation, and reintegration. These policies are discussed in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan from a comparative perspective.
The fourth section of the book explores the main interests of external actors in the region and their bilateral relations with the five countries. Russia maintains strong ties with these countries due to historical, cultural, and economic links. Moscow’s leadership role in Central Asia has long been tolerated. Additionally, labor migration and the large number of ethnic Russians residing in Central Asia are noteworthy. However, the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 has eroded Russia’s regional standing. Central Asian governments now view Moscow with greater caution, and negative attitudes toward Russia are gradually increasing, particularly in Kazakhstan. According to the book’s authors, Russia is likely to transition from being the “dominant actor” to “one of several actors” in Central Asia.
Although geographically close, China has only recently emerged as one of the most important external players in Central Asia. Beijing has rapidly transformed the region, providing Central Asian governments with a vision of a non-Western developmental path. The five countries have benefited from close economic and political relations with China, but have also paid a price through new vulnerabilities.
On the other hand, the European Union continues to struggle with itself and with finding an appropriate strategic concept that would enable it to gain a foothold in Central Asia and be seen as a significant actor in the region. Previous drafts of the EU’s strategy have proven to be inconsistent and lacked ambition in terms of implementation. They offered economic cooperation in exchange for democracy and the establishment of human rights standards, but in different ways. The EU’s latest strategy for Central Asia, adopted in 2019, aims to address this situation, particularly in competition with China’s growing influence in the region.
The results of fruitful cooperation between the EU and Central Asian countries can only be achieved through permanent, sincere, and pragmatic diplomacy. Such an approach alone would give both the public and elites in Central Asia the impression that the EU, with its strategy and policies, is willing and able to invest political and financial capital in the region to successfully promote its model of governance under the new circumstances.
In its relations with the region, the United States holds the position of an occasionally interested actor, one that is not only geographically distant but also appears and disappears for long periods. A look at the latest U.S. strategy for Central Asia might convince us that American relations with the region have steadily grown toward a more developed, conscious, and multifaceted presence today.
Regarding India’s role in Central Asia, the two sides have shared close cultural and spiritual ties for centuries, as well as a great deal of goodwill during the Soviet period.
However, establishing close economic and political relations after the five countries gained independence in 1991 has proven difficult. Unfavorable geography has hindered India’s access to the region, making it almost invisible for two decades. Nevertheless, the adoption of the “Connect Central Asia” policy in 2012 has somewhat changed this. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2015 visit to all five Central Asian countries offered a strategic vision and roadmap for establishing transport connectivity through maritime and land routes via Iran and Afghanistan, thus raising relations to a higher level.
As for Turkey’s evolving relations with the five countries in recent years, Turkey institutionalized its ties with Central Asia but eventually abandoned its goal of becoming the dominant actor in the region. Instead, it improved its relations with Russia in a pragmatic way and shifted more focus to the South Caucasus. Moreover, the debate on a shared Turkish identity faded in the early 2000s as Ankara turned its attention to the broader Middle East. Consequently, Central Asia lost significance in Turkish foreign policy. However, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Turkey once again sought to expand its influence in the region through trade and defense agreements.
The book also examines Japan’s interactions with Central Asian countries, explaining contemporary relations. Although the region has never been a priority for Japanese foreign policy, Japan has shaped its diplomatic approach to Central Asia by considering the local geographic, social, economic, political, and cultural specificities. Through its “anti-colonial” approach, Japan emphasizes the importance of promoting self-sustaining “intra-regional” cooperation. Overall, Japanese diplomacy in the region continues to focus on exporting infrastructure, resource diplomacy, and human resource development.
The fourth chapter examines the depth, patterns, and determining factors of regional cooperation in Central Asia, particularly in areas such as security policy, trade, fossil fuels, renewable energy, environment, and education. Despite the significant historical proximity and, in some cases, cultural and linguistic similarities, it is striking that long-term regional cooperation in these political areas has not been achieved. So far, no international organization includes only the five Central Asian countries, although this remains a reasonable goal, and initiatives in this direction exist.
However, regional cooperation is typically limited to bilateral and sector-specific collaboration. Moreover, Turkmenistan has become largely self-isolated. Using the concept of “regionalism,” understood as a geographically limited enhancement of cooperation, as a measure, the progress achieved remains quite modest. Nonetheless, the chapters in this book show variation across different areas. In the field of security, for example, a domain that is particularly sensitive to sovereignty, security cooperation in Central Asia has increased in recent decades, though it remains moderate. Where this cooperation does occur, it is primarily driven by bilateral threads with external cooperation partners. Security-related activities carried out by international organizations in Central Asia (the European Union, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, among others) have also contributed to enhancing regional cooperation. With Russia as a prominent security actor in Central Asia, many of the five countries have developed bilateral connections, while bilateral — let alone multilateral — cooperation between the five countries themselves remains less visible.
The authors of the book emphasize significant fluctuations in trade. Following independence in 1991, there was initially a decade and a half of regional fragmentation, with the shared currency disappearing, and newly established borders making the exchange of people and goods more difficult. Many declarations calling for greater trade cooperation were signed in the 1990s and early 2000s, but due to national reservations, decision-makers were often reluctant to implement them. The construction of a gas pipeline to China between 2006 and 2009 provided momentum among participating countries, including Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. The end of the oil boom in 2014 also served as a strong catalyst.
Moreover, the end of the oil boom in 2014 brought a shift toward greater cooperation and diversification in the economic policy thinking of the five governments. Recently, the new perspective on diversification has led to increased cooperation in transport and trade, which is now generally accepted in Central Asia. Fortunately, this new perspective coincided with the growing importance and efficiency of land transport links across Eurasia. Whether individual countries can seize the opportunity to trade with both East and West will depend on local conditions and regional cooperation, given the significance of transit arrangements for much of Central Asian trade. Fabio Indeo analyzes the patterns of interaction and cooperation in the hydrocarbon energy sector. He identifies stable and sustainable regional cooperation in this area as a top priority for all governments in the region, given their shared challenges, such as their landlocked geography and growing need to
diversify foreign markets. China remains the most important energy partner for the five countries of Central Asia. In contrast, the efforts to establish a common energy market remain unfulfilled for the time being, even though initiatives exist in this regard.
The chapter dedicated to renewable energy points out that countries in Central Asia have immense potential for solar and wind energy, but they are not sufficiently pursuing these renewable energy sources.
The final chapter concludes that education plays a crucial role in Central Asia’s modernization processes. Overall, educational cooperation between the five countries is still underdeveloped, despite the fact that they could benefit from joint initiatives. The authors emphasize that intra-regional student mobility and educational exchange programs remain low. Various initiatives launched by international actors, such as the European Union’s Erasmus+ program, offer opportunities to strengthen regional educational cooperation.
