On July 28, 2024, voters headed to the polls to elect a new president for Venezuela for the next six years. These elections took place in a politically tense atmosphere, marked by significant anxiety among the opposition regarding potential intimidation and fraud. The National Electoral Council is supposed to be an independent authority, but its president, Elvis Amoroso, is a close ally of current President Nicolás Maduro, and the opposition claims the council operates in his favor.
After counting about 80% of the votes, Venezuela’s electoral authority announced that Maduro received 51% of the votes, defeating his opponent Edmundo González, who secured 44%. Following the announcement of the results, Maduro described them as a “victory for peace, stability, republican ideals, and the principles of equality.” In contrast, the opposition declared González the winner, claiming he received 70% of the votes, supported by many recent opinion polls. González, a businessman and former diplomat, was nominated for the presidency after the government barred opposition leader María Corina Machado from holding any government position for 15 years, following her victory in the opposition’s presidential primary elections in October 2023. Venezuela’s Supreme Court upheld the government’s decision in January 2024.
A Pivotal Election
Many analysts view the presidential election in Venezuela as a pivotal moment in the country’s history and its foreign relations for the following reasons:
Preparation for Continued Socialist Rule in Venezuela: With Maduro’s victory in last Sunday’s elections, he is poised to maintain his position at the top of Venezuela’s power structure for a third consecutive six-year term, representing a continuity of “Chavismo” that began in 1999 under former President Hugo Chávez. Maduro first assumed office as head of state following Chávez’s death in 2013. Under Maduro and Chávez, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela has dominated power for 25 years.
Worsening Political Crisis: After Venezuela’s electoral authorities announced Maduro’s victory, Machado questioned the results, asserting that González had won 70% of the votes, a claim supported by numerous independent polls and quick counts. In a joint statement with González, she said, “Venezuela has a new elected president, Edmundo González. We have won, and the whole world knows it.” Given the insistence of both government and opposition candidates on their claims of victory, it is unlikely that this situation will pave the way for an end to the crisis Venezuela has been experiencing for several years.
Opposition Pressure on Authorities to Reveal Vote Counting Operations: While the opposition disputes the election results, González stated he would not call on his supporters to take to the streets in protest or commit acts of violence. However, a political confrontation between the two sides is likely, with González requesting the electoral authorities to provide all vote counts printed by voting machines at 30,000 polling stations across the country. The National Electoral Council has yet to provide the requested statistics.
Deterioration of Economic and Social Conditions: The ongoing debate regarding the legitimacy of Maduro’s presidential victory is likely to have significant implications for the worsening economic and social situation in Venezuela, especially if accompanied by widespread violence and if Washington and other countries intensify their sanctions on the country. This situation is expected to lead to a continued mass exodus of 7.7 million Venezuelans who have already left their homes in search of opportunities abroad, which will have consequences for the affected countries in the region. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world and was once proud of being the most advanced economy in Latin America, but it has suffered from severe economic decline in recent years. According to estimates by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Venezuelan economy experienced a cumulative contraction of 75% of GDP between 2013 and 2021. The spread of corruption and mismanagement, coupled with falling oil prices and production shortages and hyperinflation exceeding 130,000%, has led to social unrest and mass migration. The economic sanctions imposed by the United States aimed at forcing Maduro to step down after his re-election in 2018—deemed illegitimate by the U.S. and dozens of other countries—have deepened the crisis. Maduro has blamed foreign sanctions against his regime, claiming that Venezuela is a victim of an “economic war.” At the same time, the opposition has promised to restore democracy in Venezuela and rebuild the economy if victorious.
Increased International Isolation of Venezuela: The opposition’s allegations of election fraud cast doubt on Venezuela’s return to the international arena after Maduro pledged last year to hold free and fair elections in U.S.-mediated talks in exchange for easing oil sanctions. Venezuela has seen some opening toward the international community over the past two years, with some European and Latin American governments resuming diplomatic relations with Caracas. Additionally, numerous international governments and companies have expressed interest in investing in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector. With some world leaders questioning the election results and some declaring they would not recognize Maduro’s victory, a government statement published online by Venezuela’s foreign minister condemned what it termed “foreign intervention” against the elections and pointed fingers at several countries that criticized the results, including Argentina, Paraguay, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Peru.
Important Determinants
Given the doubts raised about the integrity of the presidential elections, several factors may exert pressure on the Venezuelan authorities to reveal how the electoral process unfolded and the extent of its transparency and integrity, including:
Limits of Washington’s Pressure on the Venezuelan Regime: The United States is likely to play a pivotal role in pressing Maduro’s government to transparently announce the election results. Following Maduro’s victory announcement, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated, “We have serious concerns that the announced results do not reflect the will or votes of the Venezuelan people… The international community is closely monitoring this and will respond accordingly.” He added, “It is critical that every vote be counted fairly and transparently, that electoral authorities share information promptly with the opposition and independent observers without delay, and that the electoral authorities publish all data.” These statements echo what Washington has long expressed in its tense relations with Caracas, having described Maduro’s 2018 victory as “fraudulent.” The scope of U.S. pressure may go beyond diplomatic measures to intensifying existing sanctions on Caracas. The U.S. re-imposed its oil sanctions in April 2024, accusing Maduro of reneging on deals made with the opposition to ensure free elections.
Negative Reception from Some Latin American Countries Toward the Elections: Argentine President Javier Milei described the official results as fraudulent, while Costa Rica rejected them, and Chile stated it would not accept any unverifiable results. The President of Uruguay, Luis Lacalle Pou, remarked that Maduro and his party would “win regardless of the actual results.” Peru recalled its ambassador to Caracas for consultations. In response to these positions, Venezuela announced on July 29, 2024, that it would withdraw its diplomats from seven countries in Latin America. According to a statement from the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry, Caracas views the stance of the governments of Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay as “undermining national sovereignty.”
Strength of Maduro’s Allies’ Support: China, Russia, and Iran remain Venezuela’s largest allies outside Latin America. Beijing has already shown support for Maduro, congratulating him on his election victory and expressing its willingness to continue strategic partnerships that serve the interests of both nations. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Nicolás Maduro on his re-election, stating that Moscow enjoys a strategic partnership with the South American nation, and that Maduro is always welcome in Russia. In a message to Maduro, Putin said, “I am confident that your activities at the helm of the state will continue to contribute to its gradual development in all areas.” Tehran also congratulated Venezuela on its “successful” presidential elections. It is likely that these three countries will maintain their economic and political support for President Maduro, their closest ally in the Western Hemisphere, and will reject any U.S. attempts to intervene in Venezuela’s internal affairs. Similarly, some of Venezuela’s allies in Latin America celebrated Maduro’s victory. The presidents of Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Honduras congratulated the Venezuelan president on his election win. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stated on platform X: “I reaffirm Cuba’s solidarity.” He added, “Today, the dignity and courage of the Venezuelan people triumphed over pressure and manipulation.”
Position of the Venezuelan Armed Forces and State Institutions: Over the years, the Venezuelan military has been a guarantor of Maduro’s regime’s survival, and there have been no public signs that military leaders are distancing themselves from the government, despite numerous attempts by the opposition to encourage the military to overthrow Maduro. Following the announcement of the results, Machado urged the Venezuelan military to support the voting outcomes, stating that voters made it clear they do not want Maduro. Additionally, Maduro’s government controls all public institutions in Venezuela, including the Supreme Court, which could ultimately adjudicate any claims by the opposition of electoral fraud by the government—a claim the latter has denied.
Unity and Cohesion of the Opposition: After several years of internal divisions and election boycotts, the opposition chose to unite this year around a single candidate, Edmundo González, whom Maduro’s opponents now view as a beacon of hope. González promised economic reforms, anti-corruption measures, and the restoration of democratic institutions. The opposition’s success in maintaining its unity and internal cohesion could determine its ability to effectively challenge the United Socialist Party of Venezuela led by Maduro. However, it is likely to remain unable to impose its candidate on Maduro and the state institutions that support him.
In conclusion, Venezuela is likely to witness a period of intense tension between President Maduro and his opponents in the
coming time. If the pace of these tensions escalates and is accompanied by violent acts, the country may suffer further economic and social decline, prompting its citizens to migrate abroad. At the same time, international and regional pressures on Maduro to accept the opposition candidate’s victory will increase, and he may not be recognized as Venezuela’s legitimate president by some countries. Additionally, the United States is expected to intensify its existing oil sanctions on Maduro’s regime and expand their scope.
