Nigeria, located in West Africa, has recently witnessed a rise in the frequency of popular protests. These demonstrations occurred in the capital, Abuja, and several other cities in early August 2024. They started through social media campaigns under the slogan “End Bad Governance in Nigeria,” initiated by a group of young people calling for ten days of nationwide protests to express their discontent with the deteriorating economic situation, poor governance, and rampant corruption. The protests have led to the deaths of at least 13 people, according to Amnesty International, and curfews have been imposed in five northern states. These protests bring to mind those that erupted during the tenure of former President Muhammadu Buhari against the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) in October 2020.
Influential Dimensions
Several dimensions accompany the escalation of popular protests in Nigeria in early August 2024, including:
Demand to Overcome Deteriorating Economic Conditions: This was the main driving factor behind the recent protests in Nigeria. Approximately 40% of the country’s population of over 223 million people live below the poverty line, according to World Bank data in 2024. Inflation has also risen significantly, reaching about 34.1% in mid-2024, the highest level in nearly three decades. This is attributed to policies announced by Nigerian President Bola Tinubu in May 2023, which included removing fuel subsidies to reduce government spending. This led to numerous economic challenges, such as a significant rise in food prices, with inflation exceeding 40%, a tripling of gasoline prices to about 1,000 naira per liter, and a depreciation of the national currency, the naira, against foreign currencies.
Call to Eliminate Mismanagement and Corruption: This was a primary demand raised by protesters, evident in the main slogan of the demonstrations, “End Bad Governance in Nigeria.” Nigeria ranked 145th out of 180 countries in the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index. This has significantly impacted the state’s functional performance despite its vast natural resources, particularly oil, where Nigeria leads Africa in production with around 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023, aiming to reach 2.6 million barrels per day by 2026.
Impact of Protests in Kenya: Protests in Kenya in June 2024 inspired those in Nigeria. The Kenyan protests began as opposition to the 2024 financial bill, which included tax increases and led to widespread demands for reform and accountability, culminating in calls for the resignation of the entire government. These protests prompted the Kenyan president to withdraw the financial bill in late June 2024 and form a new government in July 2024.
Government Attempts to Contain Protests: The Nigerian government tried to dissuade young activists from participating in protests, promoting economic reforms. On July 31, 2024, the government announced aid to alleviate economic hardships, including raising the minimum wage and providing food to different states and aid to the needy. This followed a decision to raise the monthly minimum wage to 70,000 naira on July 18, 2024, after continued pressure from labor unions.
Government Call for Dialogue: In a televised address on August 4, 2024, President Bola Tinubu called for an end to the protests and bloodshed and invited societal dialogue. He expressed the government’s understanding of the pressures driving the protests and its commitment to addressing citizens’ concerns.
Police Accusation of Protesters: Nigerian Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, accused protesters of instigating chaos and looting rather than genuine protests. The police imposed curfews in five states (Kano, Yobe, Borno, Katsina, and Jigawa) to prevent the protests from disrupting urban life. Despite these measures, protests continued, leading to clashes with the police, resulting in casualties and arrests.
Potential Implications
Several potential implications may arise from the escalation of popular protests in Nigeria in early August 2024, including:
Widening Armed Violence: The determination of protesters to continue mobilizing may lead to increased confrontations between the government and protesters, which have already resulted in casualties in various locations, according to Amnesty International.
Increased Terrorist Threats: The recent protests may boost terrorist activities, particularly by groups like Boko Haram, which may exploit the security disturbances.
Growth of Illegal Arms Trade and Human Trafficking: The spread of armed violence and conflict with extremist groups is likely to fuel illegal arms trade and human trafficking, with Nigeria being a transit and destination country for these activities.
Worsening Food Security in Northern States: The violence and insecurity in the northern states, responsible for producing about 80% of the country’s grains, may exacerbate food security issues.
Increased Military Involvement in Securing the Country: The Nigerian military, led by General Christopher Musa, has indicated its readiness to intervene if looting and property destruction continue.
In conclusion, the protests in Nigeria in August 2024 reflect growing public dissatisfaction with the performance of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, especially economically. This exacerbates the security challenges, such as terrorism, facing the country, potentially undermining the political legitimacy of the current regime. A forward-looking approach necessitates the government addressing deep-rooted challenges, including corruption, mismanagement, and high living costs, through effective engagement with civil society organizations and local leaders.
