Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea in June 2024, his first since 2000, clearly indicates a mutual desire to continuously strengthen bilateral relations. This visit was surrounded by various speculations regarding its implications and expected outcomes. While some focused on short-term goals related to the current situation in Europe, others viewed it as a step towards strategic partnership between the two countries, a partnership that has notably developed over the past two years. This growing closeness is evidenced by the fact that this is the second meeting between Putin and Kim in less than a year (the two leaders last met in September 2023 in Russia).
Key Implications
The aforementioned visit carried several implications for both Moscow and Pyongyang, as well as its impacts on the international and regional situation. The most important of these implications include:
- Moscow’s Desire to Secure North Korean Military Support in the Ukraine War: Putin intensified his contacts with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in 2023 as Russia’s stockpiles of weapons and ammunition dwindled due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. As a result of this rapprochement, ammunition and missiles reportedly flowed from Pyongyang to Moscow since the historic summit between the two leaders in September 2023, despite official denials from both Russia and North Korea regarding these transfers. In this context, this meeting fundamentally contributes to securing North Korean support for Russia, especially as a decisive military outcome in Ukraine is not expected in the coming months, and with increasing Western support for Ukraine despite Russian tactical successes on the battlefield. For North Korea, using its weapons in the Ukrainian arena enables it to gain real intelligence about the performance of its weapons, helping to enhance their destructive capabilities and increasing its exports.
- Pyongyang’s Aim to Attract More Russian Support Against Its Adversaries: The visit also came as North Korea objected to increasing security cooperation between the United States and its allies South Korea, Japan, and Australia, leading to heightened rhetoric from North Korea and the enhancement of its nuclear weapons program and missile tests. North Korea’s concerns escalated with the start of reciprocal visits by U.S. and Australian naval crews as part of the AUKUS partnership to provide Australia with conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines, increased U.S.-South Korean naval exercises off South Korea’s coasts, and engagement with Japan in a Patriot missile deal supporting the Western war effort in Ukraine.
- North Korea’s Aspiration for Continued Russian Support in Food and Technology: While little is officially known about what North Korea has received in exchange for its military support to Russia, some sources indicate that North Korea receives shipments of food and other necessary goods from Russia, including fuel. Concurrently, North Korea seeks to develop its space, missile, and nuclear programs, and Putin expressed his readiness to assist North Korea in developing its space program and satellites during the September 2023 meeting at a rocket launch facility.
- North Korea’s Efforts to Circumvent UN Sanctions: This visit also comes as North Korea seeks to increase labor exports to Russia and engage in other activities to obtain foreign currency, challenging UN sanctions. Discussions likely included expanding cooperation in agriculture, fisheries, and mining, and promoting Russian tourism to North Korea, aiming to help North Korea bypass UN sanctions.
- Sending Messages to the West About the Resilience of the Opposing Front and Its Ability to Threaten the Global Structure: The visit marked an important step between the two countries towards a partnership based on mutual hostility towards the West and its allies. This partnership aims to empower both leaders and deepen global fault lines, sending an implicit message that there are gaps in the new world order led by the United States, and these gaps can become threats to global stability. President Putin previously stated that with his North Korean counterpart, they would form a structure of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia. The visit also followed Putin’s meeting with close ally Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month, counterbalancing the G7 summit in Italy, which showed strong support for Ukraine.
Convergence of Interests
This summit resulted in a major outcome with the signing of a strategic partnership agreement and mutual assistance between the two countries in case either faces armed aggression. However, there are several potential results that could arise from raising the level of coordination between them to this degree. The most important actual and potential outcomes of the visit include:
- Signing a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement Between the Two States: On Wednesday, June 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, committing to mutual assistance if either country faces “aggression.” This strategic agreement comes as both parties face escalating confrontations with the West. While the details of the agreement were not immediately clear, it could represent the strongest catalyst for the relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War. The two leaders described this step as a significant upgrade of their relations.
- Potential Signing of Sub-Deals for Cooperation in Specific Technical Areas: Despite the lack of clarity on the details of the mentioned agreement, the presidents’ statements on enhancing economic, investment, and humanitarian relations between the two countries suggest the signing of other deals or verbal promises to boost cooperation in other fields. The Kremlin’s website stated that the presidents also signed an agreement to build a land bridge on their borders and another regarding cooperation in healthcare, medical education, and science.
- Potential Expansion of Technical Military Cooperation Between the Two Countries’ Armies: While the military terms of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea have not been announced, apart from mutual defense and assistance against external aggression, the agreement may likely include terms related to enhancing technical military cooperation between their armies. Russian President Vladimir Putin did not rule out military-technical cooperation with Pyongyang similar to what Western countries do among themselves, saying that “Moscow does not exclude military-technical cooperation with North Korea concerning the signed treaty.”
- Potential Chinese Concerns About the Russian-North Korean Rapprochement: Despite the close relationship between Russia and China on one side and North Korea and China on the other, Beijing may be uneasy seeing its ally North Korea getting this close to Moscow, potentially reducing Beijing’s influence over Kim. This may provide Beijing and Washington with some overlapping interests in limiting the relationship between Russia and North Korea, potentially leading to adverse outcomes for this “excessive” Russian-North Korean rapprochement.
- Future of the Russian-North Korean Rapprochement Tied to the Ukraine War: The timing of this exceptional rapprochement reflects the significant importance of the Ukraine war in this equation. Hence, the relationship between the course of this war and the mentioned rapprochement will be of interest to observers. If the war continues for years to come, it would increase Russia’s reliance on North Korea for ammunition production, making Putin more willing to share sensitive technologies. However, if the war in Ukraine ends, Russia’s need for North Korea may decrease. If that happens, Russia, whether under Putin or his successor, may seek to repair its relations with the West, finding it more profitable to deal with Western economic partners than with a poor, isolated state like North Korea.
- Prompting the United States to Strengthen Its Alliance with Its Asian Partners: The United States is expected to strengthen its newly formed tripartite alliance with Japan and South Korea as a counterbalance and deterrent to the growing axis between China, Russia, and North Korea. Although much has already been accomplished within this alliance, there is still more to be done to counter the other axis, including enhancing cooperation in communications, data transfer, intelligence sharing, reaching a missile defense agreement, and conducting more diverse military exercises.
Conclusion: Despite the mutual assistance agreement in the event of aggression, the assessment of this visit on the temporary rapprochement or strategic partnership index is fundamentally based on evaluating the degree of Russia’s sharing of its sensitive military technologies with North Korea, as well as the degree of “assistance” expected in the event of aggression. Estimates indicate that the course of Russian-North Korean relations is closely tied to the variable of the Russia-Ukraine war.
