On September 4, 2024, the three-day Ninth China-Africa Cooperation Forum kicked off. Chinese officials describe it as the largest diplomatic event hosted by Beijing in recent years, marking the first major gathering between Chinese and African leaders in Beijing since 2018. The forum aims to reaffirm Beijing as a key partner for African countries, despite a slowdown in Chinese lending for their development, and to strengthen Sino-African relations amid increasing political and economic turmoil around the world. Over the past two decades, China’s diplomacy with African nations has yielded significant results, with China emerging as Africa’s largest trading partner. According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), one-fifth of Africa’s exports go to China, largely comprising minerals, mineral products, and fuels. For African countries, Beijing is also the primary source of goods and machinery manufactured in China.
Key Implications
The forum’s occurrence within the current international context carries several implications, including:
Rising Chinese Presence in Africa: Africa, with its strategic reserves of minerals critical for the transition to clean energy, large consumer markets, and 54 votes in the United Nations, has become a focal point for competition between China and other global powers, particularly the United States. However, Beijing has outpaced Washington in building its influence on the continent, engaging in infrastructure projects ranging from power plants and dams to roads across various African countries, making it the most influential global power in the region. This is reflected in the results of a survey conducted by the “Ichikowitz Family Foundation” and released on September 3, 2024, confirming that China remains the leading global power with the most positive impact on the continent’s youth. The survey highlights challenges facing the U.S. in enhancing its standing in Africa, as 82% of young Africans view Beijing’s influence positively, compared to 79% for Washington.
No Political Conditions on Chinese Loans: Unlike the lending policies of international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank, which often require recipient countries to adopt measures related to environmental issues, democracy, political reform, and human rights, Chinese lending policies do not impose such conditions. This makes Chinese loans particularly welcomed by African countries. Chinese loans to Africa, provided by its state-owned banks, increased from $98.7 million in 2000 to a peak of $28.8 billion in 2016, according to the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, positioning Beijing as Africa’s largest creditor. Although these figures declined in subsequent years, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, they rose again to $4.6 billion last year, granting China unprecedented influence on the continent.
Expanding Partnerships with the Global South: As U.S. policies increasingly focus on the challenge posed by China’s rise to global influence, China is positioning itself as the leader of the Global South, capitalizing on diminishing American interest in the region. This strategic shift aims to secure support for Chinese interests and policies within international institutions, aligning votes with China’s perspective on global issues, which often diverges from Western and American views. The forum, which seeks to enhance China’s influence in Africa, forms part of Beijing’s broader strategy to lead the Global South.
Seeking New Markets for Green Energy: China is shifting its investments in Africa beyond basic infrastructure projects, focusing on importing key minerals for green technologies and turning Africa into a market for its massive production of green technology, such as solar panels and electric vehicles. African nations, grappling with energy shortages and climate threats, may welcome this shift. China’s emphasis on green technologies in its African partnerships also comes in response to high tariffs in the U.S., Europe, and Canada, which aim to curb what these markets view as a flood of unfairly subsidized Chinese products. Chinese investments in green technology manufacturing account for three-quarters of global investments in this sector, making China the world’s largest and most cost-effective supplier of many critical technologies and minerals necessary for the transition to clean energy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Chinese companies produced more than half of all electric vehicles sold globally last year. Additionally, global production of electric vehicles, industrial-use batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels is largely concentrated in China.
Multiple Challenges
Despite China’s success over the past two decades in boosting its political, economic, and military influence in Africa, it now faces several challenges, including:
The Ongoing Chinese Debt Trap for African Nations: While Chinese loans have helped African countries develop crucial infrastructure projects, such as hydroelectric power plants, roads, and railways, they have also burdened many nations with debt. Some African countries have defaulted on their debts, leading to lengthy restructuring processes, especially after many Chinese-backed projects failed to meet expectations, a situation exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Zambia’s debt default in 2020 reignited concerns about China’s role in financing African nations. Ghana also defaulted on its debt, and more than 10 other African countries remain highly vulnerable to debt crises. Angola holds the largest share of Chinese debt, owing Beijing around $17 billion, over a third of its total external debt. In addressing the inability of several African nations to repay their debts, China has adopted a new strategy focusing on public-private partnerships, enabling cash-strapped African governments to continue borrowing without further increasing their official sovereign debt.
African Pressures for More Chinese Investments: African leaders are seeking to transform their relationships with China, emphasizing the need for greater investment and trade to boost their economies, rather than simply accruing more debt from Chinese loans. They will likely push for the realization of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2021 pledge to import $300 billion worth of products from Africa. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has indicated that during his bilateral meeting with President Xi, he will focus on narrowing the trade deficit and addressing the structure of trade between the two nations.
Western Competition for African Infrastructure Financing: After a period during which Western powers, particularly the U.S., allowed China to dominate infrastructure financing in Africa through its “Belt and Road” initiative, Western countries have launched their own efforts in recent years to finance African infrastructure. These moves are largely driven by concerns over China’s growing influence on the continent and its access to vital African minerals essential for manufacturing green technologies.
Incomplete Chinese Projects in Some African Countries: Since launching the “Belt and Road” initiative in 2013, China has been involved in major infrastructure projects across Africa. However, a decade later, some of these projects remain unfinished, such as the $3.8 billion railway project in Kenya, which many African countries see as emblematic of China’s failure to fully deliver on its “Belt and Road” commitments.
In conclusion, the 2024 China-Africa Cooperation Forum is taking place against the backdrop of two key trends. First, the competition among major global powers, as great-power rivalry increasingly shapes their strategies and efforts to enhance influence in the Global South, a now influential player in ongoing international transformations. Second, the rising tensions between the U.S. and China and the growing divide between the Global North and South on various international issues.
