In recent times, Balochistan, located in southwestern Pakistan, has witnessed a series of violent attacks orchestrated by Baloch separatist forces. These attacks targeted both civilian and military installations, resulting in the deaths of over 70 people.
Prior to these incidents, another wave of attacks specifically targeted Chinese institutions and workers in Balochistan. These attacks were condemned by both China and Pakistan, especially since both nations are partners in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, which runs through this region. This raises questions about the potential impact of attacks targeting Chinese citizens on this project, which involves investments amounting to $60 billion.
A Troubled Environment
The recent attacks in Balochistan are the latest in a series of events highlighting the unstable security situation in Pakistan in recent years. Some of the most notable indicators of this instability include:
Increasing Terrorist Incidents and Violence: Pakistan has faced numerous terrorist attacks and violent incidents carried out by separatist armed groups, particularly since the Taliban took power in neighboring Afghanistan in 2021. These attacks have been concentrated in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan regions.According to statistics, Baloch militants carried out 110 attacks in 2023. Armed separatist groups launched 62 attacks during the first three months of 2024, targeting law enforcement, infrastructure, and civilians. In 2023 alone, over 650 attacks occurred in Pakistan, with 23% in Balochistan, resulting in 286 deaths in the province.The recent attacks, claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), reflect a notable increase in the group’s capabilities, particularly in coordination and planning compared to previous attacks.Western media reports attribute the rise in attacks to the success of armed separatist organizations in recruiting more members, as Baloch people feel politically marginalized after their parties lost power in the February elections.
Targeting Chinese Nationals: Chinese nationals working on Chinese projects in Pakistan have periodically been targeted by both ISIS-Khorasan, which opposes Chinese interests in Pakistan, and Baloch separatist groups in southern Pakistan. These groups, which are engaged in a major insurgency in Balochistan, have attacked projects such as Gwadar port (built with Chinese assistance) and Chinese engineers working on a hydropower project funded by China in northern Pakistan.Since 2018, Baloch separatists, especially the Majeed Brigade of the BLA, have claimed responsibility for attacks on Chinese interests in Pakistan. These include the 2018 attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi, the assault on the Pearl Continental Hotel in Gwadar (frequented by Chinese nationals), and the 2022 attack on the Confucius Institute at Karachi University.China has invested over $60 billion in energy and infrastructure projects in Pakistan as part of CPEC, a major component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The project aims to connect China with the Arabian Sea while helping Pakistan expand and modernize its economy through a network of roads, railways, pipelines, and ports funded by Chinese loans, including the prominent Gwadar port in Balochistan.
A New Anti-Terrorism Initiative: In July 2024, the Pakistani government launched a new anti-terrorism initiative to address rising extremism and violence in the past two years. This plan focuses on intelligence efforts to combat terrorism, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Afghan border areas, and Balochistan. It aims to confront groups like the Pakistani Taliban, Baloch armed groups, and their allies while promoting socio-economic measures to create an environment that counters extremism.
Diverse Motivations
The BLA doesn’t only target Pakistani military and civilian entities but also Chinese institutions and investments in Balochistan, including strategic ports and mineral-rich areas. Several reasons drive these attacks against Chinese interests:
Balochistan’s Marginalization: Despite constituting over 40% of Pakistan’s landmass and being rich in natural and mineral resources, the ethnic Baloch population remains marginalized, impoverished, and deprived of a fair share of the region’s wealth. The flow of money into Balochistan through CPEC, a major part of China’s BRI, has only exacerbated local resentment. Many Baloch feel that the project has brought them little benefit, with most jobs going to people from other ethnicities and regions. This has pushed armed separatist groups to not only attack Chinese development projects but also accuse Beijing of helping Islamabad exploit Balochistan.
Pressure on the Pakistani Government: The Baloch people demand greater political autonomy and a better share of the province’s natural gas resources. The BLA is one of the rebel groups calling for Balochistan’s independence from the central government in Islamabad.The recent attacks by Baloch militants are part of an effort to pressure the Pakistani government to loosen its grip on the province by intensifying attacks on non-local Pakistanis working in the region and on foreign energy companies that are seen as exploiting the province’s resources without sharing the wealth.These attacks pose a significant challenge to the coalition government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, which is already dealing with an economic crisis, political instability, and rising violence from religious and separatist groups across Pakistan. Balochistan is also witnessing protests against what is perceived as a pattern of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and other human rights violations by security forces, accusations that the government denies.This challenge is compounded by Balochistan’s wealth of natural resources, including vast reserves of oil, coal, gold, copper, and gas, which generate significant revenue for the federal government.Moreover, Baloch militants are also trying to impact Pakistan’s relations with China. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has stated that these attacks aim to undermine the relationship between Islamabad and Beijing, especially given China’s repeated concerns about the safety of its citizens working in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan.
Unfulfilled Economic Development Promises: The master plan for Gwadar port, approved in 2006, included promises of development for Balochistan through the flow of oil and other petroleum products. One of the primary goals of CPEC was to help lift the local population in Gwadar out of poverty. However, local residents have largely been excluded from the port’s development plans. Although some roads have been built around Gwadar since CPEC’s launch, there has been no significant improvement in the socio-economic conditions of the local population. As a result, Baloch insurgent groups, which periodically target Chinese-backed investments and engineers, view Beijing as a partner of Islamabad in exploiting local resources.
Future Scenarios
The recent attacks in Balochistan create uncertainty about the future of CPEC. There are two possible scenarios:
Temporary Project Delays: In this scenario, recent terrorist attacks in Balochistan could temporarily disrupt the CPEC project. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s statement that the attacks aim to derail CPEC development projects supports this view. If Balochistan continues to lack security and stability, it could lead to partial halts in some ongoing projects, particularly during the second phase of CPEC, officially launched in June 2024. China’s dissatisfaction with the progress of CPEC projects and concerns about the safety of its citizens working in Pakistan could lead to delays or disruptions. This scenario would exacerbate Pakistan’s economic crisis, further hindering its development.
Project Continuation: In this scenario, CPEC continues according to plan, unaffected by the violence in Balochistan. This scenario is supported by the commitment both China and Pakistan have shown to enhancing CPEC, with both nations pledging to strengthen counter-terrorism and security cooperation. This includes a recent visit by Chinese General Li Qiaoming to Pakistan to assess security and ensure CPEC’s protection, highlighting Beijing’s priority to safeguard the project.
In conclusion, the recent attacks in Balochistan pose significant challenges to CPEC’s future. The most likely scenario is that the project will continue, given the strong desire of both countries to see it succeed. However, this will require coordinated political, economic, and social measures to address local grievances and neutralize security threats targeting the project.
