US military leaders are increasingly concerned about the accelerating pace of China’s nuclear ascent, which has become one of the largest shifts in geostrategic power ever, especially after China launched its first hypersonic spacecraft and Washington’s belief that Beijing will quadruple its arsenal of warheads by 2030 Which raises the question of whether China is moving towards a less defensive approach that could significantly alter the balance of power in Asia, through which it is working to win the conflict with the United States over Taiwan, by neutralizing the threat posed by American nuclear weapons. . In this context, the Financial Times published a report on November 15, 2021 entitled “Chinese nuclear expansion: an opportunity for global leadership and a threat to the balance of power.”
China’s nuclear rise
There are many indications about China’s tendency to maximize its nuclear capabilities in a way that has worried both politicians and the military in the United States, especially with the escalation of what can be described as the second Cold War between Beijing and Washington, which accelerated sharply during the first year of the administration of US President Joe Biden, and the most prominent of those indicators can be shed light on as follows:
1- China’s launch of the first hypersonic spacecraft: On July 27, 2021, China became the first country to fly a hypersonic spacecraft, around the Earth, which is a vehicle that is maneuverable and travels at a speed of five times the speed of sound. That vehicle was propelled by a missile that could fly over the South Pole, evading American missile defenses focused on the North Pole, providing the Chinese with another way to strike targets in the United States far from the range of American defenses in the region.
In so doing, this test was the latest in a series of discoveries about China’s growing nuclear capabilities that have set off multiple alarm bells in Washington and now focus attention on a potentially dramatic shift in Beijing’s nuclear posture. Over the past two decades, China has astonished the United States, with the relentless pace of its conventional military build-up, from combat aircraft and bombers, to submarines and warships, and China’s naval power is now the largest in the world.
2. Beijing’s nuclear power grows as conventional military buildup continues: While the Pentagon monitors the full scope of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s military expansion, China has begun expanding its nuclear capabilities very rapidly, according to General Mark Milley, President of the People’s Liberation Army. The United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, who explained that what Beijing is doing on the nuclear front “is happening alongside a fundamental change in the nature of war,” adding: “We need to work urgently to develop capabilities in all areas, land, sea, air, space and cyber.” And our strategic nuclear forces, to confront this evolving global scene, otherwise we risk failing our future generations.”
General John Hyten, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently issued his own warning about the implications of that Chinese nuclear expansion, saying: “All the personal weapons they make, all the nuclear weapons they build, are not intended for their population, they are for the United States… We have to assume that, and we have to plan for it.” Despite this, Chinese expansion is sparking debate in Washington about how the United States should restructure its nuclear power. As Jeffrey Lewis, a non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, explains that the Chinese military build-up revealed the devastating results of US policy, saying: “The Bush and Obama administrations have claimed that if we maintain a stockpile of nuclear weapons three or four times larger than China, it will be dissuade Beijing from trying to match the United States.”
3. Beijing rejects Washington’s calls for nuclear arms control The anxiety within the Pentagon comes at a time when US-China relations have become notably precarious, riven by disagreements over technology, tariffs, human rights, as well as military competition. US President Joe Biden is expected to raise concerns about China’s nuclear acceleration when he holds a virtual meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. But Beijing has over the years resisted calls to open arms control talks with Washington, stressing that the United States and Russia have much larger arsenals than China.
4- US estimates of China developing 1,000 nuclear warheads: The Pentagon announced in a report on China’s military power, earlier this month, that the People’s Liberation Army’s missile force would quadruple its stockpile to at least 1,000 nuclear warheads, by the end of current contract. The Pentagon added – in a development that would mark a milestone – that China may now have an “emerging” nuclear triad, referring to nuclear missiles that can be launched from land, sea and air, after Beijing deployed a nuclear-capable bomber last year.
5- China’s Development of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Silos: Also according to the Pentagon report, the People’s Liberation Army of China is also developing and building hundreds of silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles carrying nuclear weapons ICBMs. Beijing tested about 250 ballistic missiles in 2020, more than all countries in the world combined. Also, according to the Pentagon report, China commissioned the DF-17, a medium-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle, in 2020. But the report did not say whether the July 2021 test of the DF-17 was, because details of the event do not. still confidential.
6- Beijing activating the satellite “launch on alert” mode: According to the report, the Pentagon also announced that China has more than 200 sensing and reconnaissance satellites in space, compared to 120 satellites two years ago. Moreover, the PLA has also begun implementing a partial “launch on alert” mode, which would enable anti-missile strikes before any potential incoming US missile reaches its target, rather than responding after the first strike hits locations in China.
Chinese deterrence shifts
In addition to indications of the accelerating Chinese nuclear rise, the report revealed worrying shifts that raise questions about the developments that Beijing is introducing to the traditional Chinese deterrence model, which can be reviewed, according to the report, in the following points:
1- A possible Chinese abandonment of the “minimum deterrence” strategy:Given its rapid nuclear expansion, experts debate whether China believes it needs to strengthen its conventional deterrence strategy as America grows, including abandoning its decades-old “minimum deterrence” strategy. Some experts believe that China is strengthening its ability to respond to US advances in areas such as missile defense, in light of Beijing’s growing concern about this, since 2002, when the Bush administration withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which limited defense systems Ground missile. While the United States argues that its defenses are intended for limited threats, such as North Korea, China may be concerned that in the event of a broader conflict, a first strike by the United States could destroy much of its nuclear forces, and that Washington would then use its missile defenses to strike any Chinese missiles Arrival stayed in the works.
2- Doubts about Beijing’s commitment to a no-first-use policy: Since China conducted its first atomic bomb test in 1964, it has maintained a minimal policy of deterrence backed by a weak and effective nuclear power. That approach is designed to ensure that China, with its “no first use” policy, refuses to initiate a nuclear conflict, does not use nuclear weapons unless the country is attacked, while retaining enough nuclear weapons to respond to a first strike. . But after the Pentagon report on China’s growing nuclear capabilities, and Beijing’s hypersonic test, debate has escalated within Washington and among US allies as well, over China’s seeming direction toward abandoning its previous “weak” position of no first use.
While there is growing consensus that China is giving up minimal deterrence, Beijing’s lack of transparency means that it is unclear whether it will go so far as to forego “no first use.” And the Financial Times report noted that in its response to the Pentagon report, the Chinese embassy accused the United States of spending trillions of dollars to modernize its nuclear arsenal, echoing criticism from arms control advocates who believe that Washington does not need many weapons. The United States is also developing hypersonic weapons, like Russia. Based on this, “the world will decide who does the nuclear madness,” the Chinese embassy said.
Although China has declared its commitment to a “no first use” policy, some experts are skeptical, with the Pentagon explaining that some PLA officers discussed the use of nuclear weapons first, in the event that a non-nuclear attack threatened the survival of the Chinese nuclear power. In this context, the nuclear expert at the University of Pennsylvania, “Fiona Cunningham” stated, “Having a larger, more accurate and diversified Chinese arsenal on higher alert, would be consistent with a response strategy, but it also gives China options to use nuclear weapons first. It didn’t have it before,” she added, adding that “Chinese nuclear modernization has shredded the United States’ confidence in Beijing’s nuclear control.”
3- Beijing is preparing for a possible war with Washington over Taiwan: According to the report, Taiwan is by far the most dangerous hot spot in US-China relations. Some experts believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping may want to increase the risks for Washington, to ensure that the United States does not try to use nuclear weapons to prevent China from taking military action against Taiwan, as China sends record sorties of warplanes to the air defense zone in Taiwan. Taiwan, to test the country’s defenses and try to intimidate the government in Taipei.
Therefore, Vipin Narang, a nuclear security expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, believes that China is engaged in a remarkable nuclear expansion, because it believes that the risk of a conventional war with the United States is higher now than ever. “The greatest danger is not nuclear war, but very intense conventional war, as China unloads its huge arsenal of conventional missiles in the Asian theater without fear of US nuclear escalation,” he added.
After the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, experts argued that China would become more assertive toward Taiwan, with President Biden showing little appetite for conflict. Although he declared that the withdrawal would allow the United States to focus more on China. As a result, Robert Ashley, a retired general who headed the Defense Intelligence Agency until a year ago, believes that Beijing may have decided to expand and accelerate its nuclear force because it expected that the United States would change its focus and make some move with regard to its containment strategy.
4- Washington allies’ concerns about curtailing “extended deterrence”: Michael McCaul and Mike Rogers, two top Republican lawmakers, in November 2021, asked the Biden administration to share information about concerns raised by allies during the review of the nuclear posture, as Matthew Kronig, author of the Atlantic Council Report on China’s Nuclear Forces, thought that while the United States is clearly becoming increasingly “weak”, it should not admit it, but rather should continue to develop its nuclear arsenal, there is a danger that Some US policymakers and lawmakers are abandoning the pursuit of the advantages of quantitative and qualitative strategic power over China.
In contrast, Robert Sofer, the Trump administration’s top nuclear policy defense official, argues that China wants to promote “mutual weakness” to undermine US alliances. The letter from Republican lawmakers came in response to a report in the Financial Times that US allies are urging President Biden not to make a major shift in nuclear policy, by declaring a “sole purpose” position, which means that nuclear weapons must They are only used to deter or respond to another nuclear attack, which would define the situations under which the United States would use nuclear weapons.
Finally, the report pointed out that there are fears among Washington’s allies of weakening the “extended deterrence” policy , which is the US nuclear umbrella to protect allies that do not possess nuclear weapons, such as South Korea and Japan. Accordingly, Philip Davidson, the retired head of the US IndoPacific Command, who warned earlier in 2021 that the People’s Liberation Army might take military action against Taiwan within six years, said: “We have to admit that the Chinese Communist Party He is doing everything he can to replace his leadership in the United States’ global leadership. Our future prosperity and security are at stake.”
Source:
Demetri Sevastopulo, China’s nuclear build-up: ‘one of the largest shifts in geostrategic power ever’, Financial Times, November 15, 2021, Accessible at: https://www.ft.com/content/d7c50283-18c8-4f2e-8731-970d9a547688
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