Since the beginning of this year, several African countries have experienced popular protests due to deteriorating economic conditions and rising prices. Countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, and others have seen increased political pressure as a result of worsening global crises. The African scene is highly dynamic both politically and economically, which has led to the expansion of youth-led protests, often referred to as “Generation Z” or the post-millennial generation.
It is notable that the economic decline and reduced living standards among various segments of the populations in these African countries have been significant causes of the rising protests. These protests carry revealing implications and potential consequences, especially considering reports indicating weak economic activity in many African nations.
Similar Wave:
There are key features and indicators associated with the recent wave of popular protests in several African countries. The similarities in economic and living conditions among Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, and other African countries have significantly influenced the similarities in the protests observed. In Kenya, located in East Africa, protests began on June 18 to oppose the 2024 Finance Bill, which aimed to impose additional taxes to reduce the budget deficit.
In Uganda, influenced by the protests in neighboring Kenya, popular protests started on July 23 to denounce government corruption, according to the protesters. Similarly, in Nigeria, located in West Africa, a group of Nigerian youth announced through social media a ten-day nationwide protest starting from early August to express dissatisfaction with the deteriorating economic conditions under the slogan “End Bad Governance.”
A clear similarity among these three African countries is the unprecedented rise in unemployment rates, especially among the youth under 34 years old, who are considered the “backbone” of African societies. This indicates that a significant portion of these societies, if not more, is unemployed. This might explain why youth have been the catalyst for the protests.
Additionally, poverty rates have risen significantly. In Kenya, according to the World Bank, over 19 million Kenyans live in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $1.90 a day, which amounts to about 36% of the population. In Nigeria, the situation is similar, with around 40% of the total population of approximately 223 million living below the poverty line. In Uganda, the situation is almost the same, with about 41% of the population suffering from poverty.
Thus, the common factor in these African protests is the demand for improved living standards amid declining economic indicators. This raises concerns about the potential increase in political unrest in many countries on the continent, particularly the poorer ones.
Implications of the Protests:
The major implications expressed by the popular protests in these African countries since the beginning of 2024 include:
Growing Community Capabilities of Youth: The protests in these African countries can be seen as expressions of the increasing community capabilities of the youth, who are using modern tools to address current problems. The rise in their ability to influence is facilitated by social media. It is evident that the popularity of ruling systems in these African countries is declining due to this youth influence, as they have managed to mobilize large segments of the population to protest against these governments. This indicates a widening gap between this generation and the ruling elite.
Mutual Impact between Economy and Politics: One of the main implications of the protests is their reflection of the deteriorating economic and living conditions. The worsening living crises in many African countries are likely to escalate, particularly given the ongoing global food crisis and the lack of effective solutions to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has exacerbated the burden on these countries. These burdens are exacerbated by the fragile economic structures in many African nations and the reciprocal impact between economic and political crises. According to the World Bank’s “Pulse of Africa” report, the economic growth rate in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to decrease from 3.6% to 3.1% this year, indicating that the protests are a response to the economic crisis affecting many African countries.
Failure of Security Handling of Protests: Despite the clear demands of the youth protesters in Kenya, Uganda, and Nigeria, the response from the ruling systems has been inadequate. Security solutions have been prioritized over political and economic ones. The effective role of social media in mobilizing citizens, especially the youth, has contributed to the failure of security responses to these protests.
Pressing Consequences:
The spread of protests across the African continent carries several potential consequences:
Widespread Public Rejection of Ruling Systems: Even if some African governments attempt to reduce the intensity of protests through reforms, these measures may only serve as “temporary and ineffective painkillers.” The worsening economic situation could lead to increased public rejection of these governments, especially as young activists continue to rally popular and social support against them. This may contribute to the consolidation of political opposition forces, gaining new popular ground.
Decline in Political Legitimacy of Governments: As protests and demonstrations continue, the political legitimacy of the ruling systems in these African countries may decline due to increasing public rejection. A clear example is the public rejection, particularly from the youth, of Ugandan President Museveni’s prolonged rule since 1986. Some major international powers might impose sanctions on officials in these countries, as the U.S. did on June 27 by imposing sanctions on Ugandan Parliament Speaker Anita Annet Among and five other Ugandan officials over corruption charges.
Increased Activity of Terrorist Groups: The popular protests in some African countries, such as Nigeria, are likely to lead to increased activities and violence by terrorist groups, which often exploit protest and security unrest to carry out attacks. For instance, the activities of the “Boko Haram” group intensified in Nigeria before the recent protests, suggesting that the group may use the ongoing protests to plan further terrorist operations, taking advantage of the public discontent with President Bola Tinubu, particularly regarding the economic situation.
In conclusion, the growing gap between ruling systems and the youth, who are more open-minded, in some African countries is related to structural issues over recent years, including deteriorating economic conditions and declining living standards for many people in the continent.
