Beijing provocation: What are the possible repercussions of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan?

By Yasmin Mahmood – Interregional for Strategic Analytics

On August 2, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island of Taiwan for one day, as part of her Asian tour, which also includes Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, becoming the first high-ranking US official to visit Taiwan since 1997, in A move that provoked angry reactions from China, which issued a number of warnings to Washington prior to the visit, in parallel with the emergence of a set of indications that raised concern in the US administration about the possibility of China implementing its threats related to the visit.

Given the American insistence on completing the visit, and China’s strong denunciation of it, it can be said that the visit left a major political crisis between Washington and Beijing. It is expected that China will take steps in the coming days to respond to it, especially at the military level. Pelosi’s declaration during the visit and during her meeting with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen of the United States’ firm commitment to the island carries an additional message of challenge to Beijing. All of these developments risk exposing Taiwan to risks it has not seen for decades, especially since the possible Chinese response has not been fully understood.

military moves

As soon as Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, the Chinese Ministry of Defense and the People’s Liberation Army announced that it had taken a number of military measures to respond to the visit, especially as it comes at a sensitive time for China. It coincides with the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, and also comes ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, during which Chinese President Xi Jinping is looking to extend his term for a third term. The Chinese military movements and the Taiwanese response to them can be reviewed through the following:

1- China begins military exercises near Taiwan: As soon as Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, a statement issued by the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army indicated that “a series of exercises will be conducted starting from the evening of August 2 in the sea and air around Taiwan.” For its part, the People’s Liberation Army announced that it will conduct exercises in six maritime zones around Taiwan, and the Chinese Ministry of Defense confirmed that “the Chinese army will conduct military exercises and important exercises, including live-fire exercises, from August 4 to 7, noting that the Chinese army is in a “state of combat readiness.” ”; It will carry out “targeted military operations to thwart the interference of outside forces and the separatist Taiwan independence plans,” as Chinese state television reported that Chinese Su-35 fighters crossed the Taiwan Strait.

2- Beijing warns civil aviation not to approach Taiwan: With China intending to start live-fire military exercises, Chinese officials have issued warnings to civil aviation not to approach the airspace near Taiwan; They have designated six areas as “risk areas”, while Taiwan officials believe that these exercises aim to blockade the island by sea and air.

3 – Taiwan’s accusations of violating Beijing’s sovereignty through exercises: The Taiwan Ministry of Defense accused China of threatening international waterways, violating international law and the country’s sovereignty against the backdrop of upcoming Chinese military exercises in six regions around Taiwan; Some of them overlap with the territorial waters of the island. The Taiwan president pledged that the island will not back down in the face of China’s deliberately increasing military threats, stressing that Taiwan will firmly defend its sovereignty and will continue to defend democracy, she said.

Expected consequences

It is expected that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will have a number of repercussions, which are likely not limited to the short term, but may extend to have wide-ranging effects in the long term. This is in light of the unprecedented state of challenge between Beijing and Washington over the visit. The possible repercussions of this visit can be reviewed as follows:

1- The growing level of political tensions between Washington and Beijing: It is expected that the already simmering political tensions between Washington and Beijing will increase; The Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned the visit, warning that it “seriously affects the political foundation of Sino-US relations, and seriously violates China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” and stressed that the visit sends wrong signals to the separatists in Taiwan, vowing to punish those who insult Beijing.

Despite the Chinese military moves that escalated during the visit and its aftermath, there is a wide trend that believes that the current tensions over Taiwan are unlikely to turn into a military escalation between the Chinese and American sides, especially with the two countries having no interest in engaging in a direct military conflict, given the To the challenges facing both sides today, as well as both realizing the vast cost of this potential conflict. Some expect that China, in response to the visit, will impose sanctions on the United States or Pelosi in the future.

2- China takes new escalatory steps against Taiwan: Given the current state of Chinese anger, the Chinese government may move to take more provocative moves against Taiwan, including launching missiles into the Taiwan Strait, or it may make a large-scale military incursion into the area of Taiwan Air Defense. In this regard, it is noted that the ADA is different from Taiwan’s territorial airspace, but it includes a much larger area that overlaps part of China’s Air Defense Identification Zone, even some parts of the mainland.

3- The increasing degree of Chinese psychological warfare against Taiwan: The Taiwanese authorities expected an increase in Chinese psychological warfare against them in the coming days, against the background of Pelosi’s visit; By spreading misinformation to influence Taiwan public opinion, the Taipei government has strengthened the level of security vigilance in various government facilities, by strengthening security measures in the main infrastructure of various sectors, especially with the increase in cyber-attacks on a number of sites in Taiwan. In conjunction with Pelosi’s visit.

4- Increasing the risks of miscalculation between the various parties: Although Beijing’s military movements do not pose a threat to the US naval forces stationed in the region, they increase the risks of miscalculation between US assets in the region and Chinese forces, as well as between Beijing and Taiwanese forces, especially if the movements increase The hostility of Chinese forces towards the US Navy and Air Force, on the background of Pelosi’s visit.

It is worth noting that Pelosi, while speaking at a press conference in Taipei, praised the people of Taiwan; For their “courage to change their country to become more democratic,” she said. It is noted that Pelosi used the word “country” even though Washington does not recognize Taiwan as a state. Although some reports considered that Pelosi did not mean what she said, in any case, China will interpret this as an additional indication of Washington’s changing position on the one-China policy, which may contribute to increasing tensions between the two sides.

5- Taiwan’s boldness in confronting Chinese moves: It is possible that Taiwan officials will increase their daring and insistence on confronting Chinese military provocations during the coming period, backed by Pelosi’s visit to the island and her affirmation of “the United States’ firm commitment to supporting Taiwan’s democracy, its security and its right to defend itself.” “US solidarity with the 23 million people in Taiwan is more important today than ever”; Taiwan’s president has insisted that she will not back down in the face of China’s deliberately increasing military threats, stressing that Taiwan will firmly defend its sovereignty and will continue to defend democracy. The rhetoric of Taiwan’s president demonstrates the strength and moral support that Pelosi’s visit to the island has given him.

6- Pushing the visit towards strengthening cooperation between Russia and China: It is expected that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will contribute to strengthening Sino-Russian relations, especially with Moscow confirming its support for Beijing. A spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that “Russia affirms its commitment to the one-China principle, and opposes the island’s independence in any way,” noting that “Pelosi’s visit is nothing but a provocative attempt by Washington to intensify pressure on the Chinese side.” The Kremlin spokesman considered that Pelosi’s visit would put the United States on a collision course with China.

disciplined escalation

Finally, although Washington and Beijing have pursued a brinkmanship policy regarding Taiwan in light of Pelosi’s visit, both sides wish to maintain the status quo on the island for the time being. To avoid being drawn into a catastrophic war. Although the Biden administration senses the dangers of disrupting the status quo in Taipei, it does not want to engage in a war with China at a time when it is preoccupied with confronting a number of threats, foremost of which is the challenges that Russia creates for Washington in light of the Ukraine war. Many believe that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and the challenge of China in this context is nothing more than a short-term personal victory, and may result – at the most – a further deterioration in political relations between Washington and Beijing, and an increase in Chinese military harassment in Taiwan.

Sources:

Amy Mackinnon, Jack Detsch, and Robbie Gramer, Pelosi’s Visit Risks Turning Taiwan Into a Political Football, Foreign Policy, August 1, 2022, Accessible at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/01/pelosi-visit-taiwan-china-political-football/

Stephen Collinson, Questions mount over whether Pelosi’s Taiwan trip is worth the consequences, CNN, August 3, 2022, Accessible at: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/03/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-trip-consequences-analysis/index.html

Stephen Collinson, Pelosi’s Taiwan visit risks creating greater instability between the US and China, CNN, August 3, 2022, Accessible at: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/pelosi-taiwan-risks-greater-instability-us-china-analysis/index.html

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