Dynamic range: Dimensions of the African tour of French President “Macron”
By Ahmed Askar
French President Emmanuel Macron made an African tour between 25 and 28 July 2022, which included the countries of Cameroon, Benin and Guinea-Bissau, in his first visit outside Europe after his re-election for a second presidential term in May 2022, and it is also the first time that Macron visits the three countries in a while His first term, which began in 2017. He was accompanied during the visit by a number of French officials, such as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Defense and the Minister of State for Development. This tour was linked to two main goals for Paris; They are: security and the economy.
The tour is of strategic importance because it comes at a time when France is facing a crisis of legitimacy in the region after the withdrawal from Mali, and the escalation of popular protests against the French presence in the Sahel and West Africa. Thus, Macron’s tour could represent a reference to the political priority accorded to the African continent in his second term, as it may reflect a French attempt to reposition the geopolitical position in Africa after a stage of failure over the past decade in the face of growing international movements, especially Russian, Chinese and Turkish.
main motives
Macron’s visit to Central and West Africa carried many strategic goals aimed at rearranging French priorities in the region in order to enhance its influence, the most prominent of which are:
1- Reducing French-African tensions: the tour is an attempt to bridge the rift caused by the escalation of tension between France and some African countries in recent years, such as Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Central Africa and Chad; In 2020, relations between Paris and Yaounde became tense after French hints of putting pressure on the regime of President Paul Biya due to the escalation of violence in the country. To this end, Macron refrained from discussing human rights violations in those countries for fear of renewed tension or turning African countries into rivals in the region such as Russia. During his tour, he expressed his interest in discussing some strategic files that trouble African countries, such as terrorism, security and food security challenges in light of the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. He discussed the “Farm” initiative launched in March 2022 with the European Union and the African Union with the aim of increasing agricultural production.
Macron is trying to improve the image of Paris in the African public opinion by expressing his willingness to open the file of French violations in African countries during the period of French occupation, such as Rwanda and Algeria. Especially after a group of Cameroonian political parties called on France to recognize the crimes it committed during the French occupation of its country.
2- Attracting new allies to the French orbit: The visit indicates a French attempt to draw new red lines and designate areas that international geopolitical competitors, such as Russia, should not cross, especially since Paris still holds most of the threads of the game in the Sahel region on the security and economic levels. With some West African countries out of the francophone mantle after French-speaking Gabon and Togo joined the Commonwealth Organization on June 12, 2022, France’s motives are increasing towards finding new regional partners for fear of the break-up of its allies, which may affect the decline of its influence on the continent and the region.
Paris fears losing its standing with its allies in favor of other international powers such as China, Russia and Turkey; Therefore, it seeks to restore itself as a partner to African countries such as Cameroon, which is the first visit by Macron since the visit of former President Hollande in 2015, especially after Cameroon signed a military cooperation agreement with Moscow in April 2022; This may reflect Macron’s adoption of a new policy towards Africa to curb the movements of anti-Paris forces there.
3- Searching for new economic partnerships: The French president’s African tour is inseparable from Paris’s endeavors to secure access to African oil as an important alternative that compensates for the rise in energy prices at the global level. Macron urged African countries to produce more oil and food, and Central and West African countries are major food producers on the continent, which is important for France in its efforts to search for investment opportunities in the agricultural sector in this region.
Cameroon has many natural resources and wealth, especially oil, diamonds, gold and silver. It is one of the 10 most oil-producing African countries on the continent at a rate of 67,000 barrels per day, while Guinea-Bissau ranks eighth in Africa in oil production, in addition to owning large areas of fertile agricultural land, while Benin is one of the richest African countries in cotton production. Its economy is in the eurozone, not in dollars.
4- Paris has played a prominent role in the region’s crises: Macron has a desire to send a message to African countries that France will not abandon the security of Africa and its allies, which is what prompts him to try to link African countries to Paris by trying to settle some of their crises and expand the circle of investments and benefit Of the promising opportunities there, as well as military support to them in the face of the growing security threats and the escalation of terrorist activity in a number of countries, such as Benin and Cameroon, as well as some internal crises such as the one in Cameroon; Where ethnic violence is escalating, and some separatist movements have been fighting in the English-speaking northwestern and southwestern regions since 2017 in order to declare an independent state in the country, which further destabilizes the economically leading country in Central Africa.
5- Building new security and strategic partnerships with African countries: It seems that Macron is reinforcing his efforts to reconfirm the image of the country fighting terrorism in the African collective mind to overcome the stage of failure over the past decade; And that is by adopting a new approach in the field of fighting terrorism and relying on new allies, in light of the French move to redefine Paris’s defense strategy in Africa after the withdrawal of French forces from Mali and refocusing its attention on the Gulf of Guinea region, including Benin, Togo and Cote d’Ivoire.
This strategy relies on smaller and less vulnerable forces in Africa, which coincides with a reassessment of the budget of the French armies during the period between 2024 and 2030 due to the war in Eastern Europe; Paris intends to reformulate and expand its security mechanism in the region to include the countries of the Gulf of Guinea, which must deal with terrorist organizations whose activities are expanding in the region. Macron announced the possibility of providing military support to African armies through training, equipment and joint missions. During his visit to Benin, he confirmed the delivery of advanced weapons such as drones, as well as providing air and intelligence support and training forces there to confront terrorist organizations active in the north of the country.
6- Reassessing the French military presence on the continent : Macron is paving the way for a new French strategy towards the continent, which is likely to be announced next September. and redistribution in the region during the coming period, starting from Niger. Macron’s tour was preceded by a visit by French officials to West Africa on July 15, 2022 and to Niger on July 22, 2022, with the aim of drawing up a French strategy to combat terrorism in the Sahel.
7- Preserving French influence within ECOWAS: This is highlighted by the importance of Macron’s visit to Guinea-Bissau, which recently assumed the presidency of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in light of French efforts to maintain a strong relationship with the regional organization with the aim of strengthening pressure on some countries that tweet Outside the French squadron, such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea Conakry, which witnessed military coups during the recent period; This has led to strained relations with Paris, in addition to the distinguished relations between these countries and Russia, whose influence has been rising significantly in the region during the recent period.
8- Confronting European moves in the region: Paris is aware of the dangers of the growing Italian and German influence in Africa on its strategic interests and influence in the European Union; In recent years, the two countries have sought to enhance their presence in Africa, which prompted Paris to reshape its strategy towards Africa, especially the Sahel and West Africa, in order to preserve its position as Europe’s policeman in Africa.
9- Stopping the Russian advance towards the Sahel: by demonizing the Russian role in Africa and accusing it of exporting hunger to Africa; For being the main implicated in the exacerbation of the current global food crisis, and the rise in food prices – and not European sanctions as promoted by Moscow – in an attempt to win over African public opinion in favor of France and Europe in the Ukraine crisis and improve their image with the aim of isolating Russia on the African arena.
French fears have escalated due to Russian moves in the Sahel, especially on the security front, in light of the growing role of the Russian Wagner security forces in some countries in the region, such as Mali and Central Africa. Macron expressed his concern about the expansion of Russia’s diplomatic and military relations with a number of African countries, and accused Moscow of colluding with weak African ruling regimes and illegitimate military councils, in reference to Mali; This coincided with a Russian tour led by the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, to Africa, which included the countries of Egypt, Ethiopia, Congo and Uganda.
potential effects
President Macron’s tour to Central and West Africa may have a number of possible repercussions at various levels, the most prominent of which are:
1- The growth of anti-French sentiments: They have naturally increased during the recent period, in light of its being held responsible for the increase in the activity of terrorist organizations in the Sahel during the last decade, and the deterioration of economic conditions in the countries of the region; What increases the possibility of more popular demonstrations rejecting the French presence in Central and West Africa.
2- Popular discontent with African governments: as a result of the correlation between the ruling elites and France, and the associated facilities provided to them to acquire the wealth of African countries, at a time when the countries of the region suffer from high rates of poverty that have exacerbated the humanitarian conditions in many regions. And the increase in the number of displacement and illegal immigration to Europe, which may enhance political instability in some African countries and may develop into the outbreak of military coups to remove these elites loyal to Paris.
3- Loss of confidence in French security and development approaches: The French strategy towards Africa that Macron and his government is promoting may not be acceptable to large sectors in the countries of the region, especially after the failure of French approaches during the past decade to restore stability and development to the Sahel region, and this is evidenced by the growing Security threats, including the escalation of terrorist activity in the region, which negatively affected the stability and growth of national economies there.
4- The continuing tension between ECOWAS and some member states: the visit of “Macron” to Guinea-Bissau, as the current president of ECOWAS, may result in the latter exerting more pressure on the ruling military junta in Mali at the behest of Paris; This may impede the relatively positive indicators witnessed by the relationship between the two parties recently, following the decision of ECOWAS to lift some economic sanctions on Mali in early July 2022.
5- The intensification of international competition on Africa: in light of the fierce attack by the international actors for oil and food, and the co-optation of African countries in order to avoid the repercussions of the global food crisis and the oil crisis as a result of the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis in Eastern Europe, which makes Africa a new arena of conflict between those forces; What may affect the regional security of the countries of the continent, which may lead to a state of regional alignment behind any of those forces to strain African-African relations during the coming period.
In this context, the Russian-French confrontation is likely to intensify in Africa. In light of the exchange of accusations between the two sides of causing the global food crisis that African countries suffer from; Which may result in an intensification of the propaganda war between the two parties on the African arena, and their attempt to mobilize many supporters in the countries of the region, and this may be accompanied by the internal situation getting out of control; This reinforces the political and security turmoil in the countries of the region.
All in all, President Macron is well aware of the current strategic changes taking place in the international system, and the urgent need to change Paris’ policy towards Africa and move towards it quickly to deepen his relations with it as an important geopolitical competition arena, which is reflected in the recent French moves towards the Central and West Africa region. . However, it is difficult to predict the expected results of that round and its repercussions on the strengthening of French influence in the region in the short term, until the results of the simultaneous tours of officials of some of the international powers competing with it in Africa, such as Russia, as well as China, which will not stand silent in the face of these moves, may lead to consideration. To the intensification of international competition in Africa during the coming period, and the negative repercussions that may affect regional security and stability.
key words:
French-African Relations
