Prepared by the researcher

Yunus Dabnishi –  PhD student at Hassan I University – Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences, Settat – Morocco

Mashhouri Shaimaa –  PhD student at Hassan I University – Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences, Settat – Morocco

Democratic Arab Center

International Journal of Economic Studies : Fourteenth issue – January 2021

Abstract 

Specialists (economists, sociologists….) as well as ordinary people agree that today, the corona virus pandemic has disrupted the daily social and economic life of both developed and developing countries.

Even more seriously, covid19 has so far claimed the lives of thousands of people around the world, particularly in developed countries where the percentage of fatal cases is relatively high compared to that of African countries, which are developing countries and have insufficiently developed health systems. Morocco has been able to reduce the socio-economic costs related to the covid pandemic19 , by taking preventive and courageous actions from the first days of this epidemic and also thanks to a well studied plan implemented with the help of several stakeholders (ministries of health, interior, economy…).  Certainly, on the sanitary level, the virus has been weakened in its propagation and its virulence, nevertheless, heavy consequences are to be expected following this pandemic, as well on the social level as on the economic level, which consequences could lead to an exponential increase in unemployment as well as a crisis at the level of the State budget and a decrease in the GDP. Therefore, through this article, we will analyze and understand the impacts of this pandemic on the economic and social level.

summary

Specialists (economists, sociologists, etc.) and ordinary people alike agree that today, the corona virus pandemic has disrupted daily life on the social and economic level in both developed and developed countries. developing .

Worse still, covid19 has so far claimed the lives of thousands of people around the world, especially in developed countries where the percentage of fatal cases is relatively high compared to that of African countries. developing and whose health system is not sufficiently developed. Morocco was able to reduce the socio-economic costs linked to the covid19 pandemic, by undertaking preventive and courageous actions from the first days of this epidemic and also thanks to a well-studied plan and implemented with the help of several stakeholders. (ministries of health, interior, economy….). Certainly, in terms of health, the virus has been weakened in its spread and virulence, however, serious consequences are to be expected following this pandemic, both socially and economically, which consequences could lead to an exponential increase in unemployment as well as a crisis in the state budget and a decrease in GDP. Also, through this article, we will analyze and understand the impacts of this pandemic on the economic and social level.

Introduction

This paper aims to analyze the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on Morocco as well as the challenge of restarting the Moroccan economy, from the angle of three essential aspects:

  1. Actions taken by Morocco at the time of Covid19 and the social effects of this pandemic;
  2. Analysis of the global and Moroccan economic situation as well as the economic effects of Covid19,
  3. Results and modalities for a healthy restart of the Moroccan economy.

The costs of COVID-19 are very heavy and continue to weigh on the global economy as long as the crisis is still struggling to emerge. And Morocco will not escape the negative consequences, both economic and social, of this crisis.

Thus, the whole world is experiencing a serious, unexpected crisis because of the corona virus (covid19 which has given rise to unprecedented facts (confinements, deconfinements, bibs) and to realities in which no one could have believed if they did not. Emerging and developed countries had not grasped the seriousness of the virus and took preventive and adequate measures to slow down the rate of spread of the virus only belatedly preferring to save their economies in these difficult times. It was only afterwards that they realized that the virus is spreading at a frightening rate and that it causes a lot of deaths especially in the elderly or in fragile health. It is at this time that some countries have started to take drastic measures (total containment, masks …) to curb the spread of the virus and safeguard populations, even if it means sacrificing the economy they initially wanted to protect.

The Covid19 pandemic has put a strain on the systems of all countries. Communities such as the European Union have been on the verge of collapse. The first world power, because of its neoliberal system which gives the economy a primordial place at the expense of human beings who have only a secondary place within this system, pays a high price in the number of contaminations and dead and thus shows the bankruptcy of its health system, inaccessible to a large part of society. However, some states, such as California for example, having understood the gravity of the virus are starting to take drastic measures (closing beaches, bars, etc.).

The impact of this pandemic on a global, regional and national scale remains very difficult to determine, but it will certainly appear at all levels, namely economic, financial and social.

The object of this paper is therefore to focus on the effects of this pandemic not only on the social level but also on the economic level. However, it is certain that the restart of the economy for our country will undoubtedly require a lot of time, nevertheless, it must be gradual and above all very controlled.

In order to better understand this Covid19 crisis which affects the whole world, to analyze its effects on Morocco and to assess the measures taken and actions undertaken by our country to raise its economy, we will examine the various points below. below which will be the main axes of our article.

  • Axis 1: The social effects of Covid19 in Maro c
    • Precautionary measures and actions taken by Morocco at the time of Covid19
    • The social effects of the Covid19 pandemic
    • Initiatives to mitigate the social effects of Covid19
  • Axis 2: The economic effects of Covid19 in Morocco
  • Analysis of the global and Moroccan economic situation
  • The economic impact of Covid19 in Morocco:
  • Debt in Morocco in the era of covid19 and the problem of financing the economy
  • Axis 3: Results & modalities of restarting the Moroccan economy:
  • Possible scenarios for the Moroccan economy after the Covid-19 crisis
  • Figures and discussions on the social consequences of Covid 19
  • Recommendations for a successful restart of the Moroccan economy

Axis 1: Social effects of the Covid19 pandemic in Morocco 

In this first axis, we will study the socio-economic effects of the covid19 pandemic, as well as the issue of indebtedness to help sectors in difficulty while analyzing the precautionary measures and the actions taken by the Morocco to cope with the spread of the coronavirus epidemic.

  • Precautionary measures and actions taken by Morocco in the age of covid19 

Morocco was among the first countries to declare a state of health emergency and impose containment at an advanced stage of the spread of the pandemic. This rapid decision is explained by the fact that Morocco has drawn lessons from the experiences of its neighboring countries and has taken into account its limited capacities in terms of infrastructure (only 670 hospital beds at the time of the declaration of the 1st case )

Among the measures and actions undertaken by Morocco to deal with this pandemic, we cite:

  • Stricter control of travelers from and to Morocco
  • Cancellation of flight lines
  • Closure of public and private schools, cafes, restaurants, hammams …
  • Creation of a pandemic management fund
  • Adoption of a new strategy of teaching and working remotely
  • Strict enforcement of quarantine
  • Construction of a short-term field hospital, considered the largest hospital on the continent
  • Creation of tents equipped with beds and high quality medical devices in remote villages
  • Production of breathing apparatus

All these actions carried out and successful so far by Morocco, push African countries to want to follow the Moroccan model to be able to emerge from this state of crisis.

The World Health Organization, for its part, has recognized the considerable efforts that have been made by Morocco and thus allow it to participate in the global alliance in the fight against the Covid19 virus.

  • Financial measures

King Mohammed VI ordered on March 15 the creation of a special fund for the management of the Coronavirus pandemic. The Fund, with an initial envelope of MAD 10 billion from the General Budget and subsequently supplied by private and business donations, aims to moderate the economic and social consequences resulting from preventive measures.

  • Economic measures

From an economic point of view, the payment of social charges (CNSS) has been suspended for companies from March 1 to June 2020. Companies can also benefit from a moratorium for the repayment of the maturities of bank loans and leasing until 30 June 2020 without payment of fees or penalties. The Moroccan Central Bank, for its part, decided on March 17 to reduce its key rate by 25 basis points to 2% in order to support economic activity.

  • Social measures

The government has decided to take a multitude of measures for the benefit of businesses and employees as well as the liberal professions and the informal sector which are facing difficulties caused by the pandemic. In terms of direct aid to needy households, the government has focused for a year on developing a project relating to social aid mechanisms. The site is structured around a large number of projects aimed at the organization and rationalization and governance of direct aid mechanisms and the treatment of the shortcomings affecting the Ramed regime.

Employees reporting to employers in difficulty, on cessation of activity, affiliated to the National Social Security Fund (CNSS), will benefit from a monthly lump sum allowance of 2,000 dirhams net in addition to the benefit of benefits relating to compulsory health insurance and family allowances during the period from March 15 to June 30, 2020 .

  • Trade and customs measures

Regarding imports and given the tensions on foreign currency reserves in connection with the drop in MRE transfers and tourist receipts, the Director General of Customs has sent a request to the Association of AIVAM vehicle importers in order to reduce to the strict minimum imports by negotiating with suppliers to postpone them. As for exports, the Customs Administration published two circulars on the quantitative restriction on the export of surgical masks, antiseptic preparations and protective masks [1] .

  • Social effects of the covid19 pandemic

Commander of the believers, King Mohammed VI, gave his orders for the suspension of rents, in this period of pandemic, of Habous businesses and stores dedicated to commerce, trades, services as well as Habous housing.

Thus, and on the basis of the proposals of the economic watch committee, the government has decided to take a multitude of measures for the benefit of companies and employees as well as the liberal professions and the informal sector who are facing difficulties caused by the pandemic. .

  • Reform of social support systems

In terms of direct aid to needy households, the government has focused for a year on the development of a project relating to social aid mechanisms. The worksite is structured around a large number of projects aimed at the organization, rationalization and governance of direct aid mechanisms and the treatment of shortcomings affecting the Ramed regime.

  • Employees

Two main measures were proposed by the monitoring committee for the benefit of employees:

 -Allocation of a net monthly lump sum compensation of 2000 dirhams, for the benefit of employees, people recruited by integration contract, fishermen on sick leave, working for companies affiliated to the CNSS who are in difficulty and declared to the month of February 2020.

– Family allowances and AMO benefits for the same period, to the aforementioned employees.

According to Jamila El Moussali, Minister of Solidarity, Social Development, Equality and the Family, around 760,000 employees affiliated to the National Social Security Fund (CNSS) have benefited from a fixed allowance of 1,000 DH under the month of March and 2,000 DH for the month of April [2] .

In the same perspective, the government emphasized its support for companies in difficulty in order to preserve jobs and avoid job losses for economic reasons.

  • Households operating in the informal sector

The government did not fail to extend its support to the category of households operating in the informal sector. The distribution of aid effectively began on Monday, April 6, 2020 for the benefit of Ramedist households operating in the informal sector who no longer have of income due to compulsory confinement. This distribution also took into consideration non-ramedist households, operating in the informal sector, who lost their income because of the confinement.

  • The situation of precarious categories

The government has decided to redouble its efforts, in particular for the benefit of people in more critical situations, such as the elderly, people with disabilities and people suffering from chronic diseases.

An action plan has been drawn up to protect children in precarious situations against contagion from the coronavirus. This plan includes emergency benefits for children in social welfare institutions and children on the street.

In addition to the measures taken by certain administrations for the benefit of their employees with disabilities, the parties concerned have also ensured the establishment, for the benefit of the families of people with autism, of guidance and communication units resulting from the Rafiq program. .

According to the head of government Saad dine El Othmani, social assistance services have been provided for the benefit of people in the street in order to protect them against the spread of the coronavirus. Support areas have been equipped and mobilized ensuring reception, accommodation and catering.

By organizing rounds to locate people in street situations, executives and employees of Entraide Nationale, the Moroccan Red Crescent, local authorities, local authorities, civil society and benefactors have contributed to in charge of homeless people and the return of a large number of them to their families [3] .

The elderly represent the social category most sensitive to the Corona virus, especially when it comes to residents of homes for the elderly, people living in isolation and far from their relatives.

In this period of pandemic, the “Assalama” operation dedicated to supporting the elderly and people with disabilities, made available to these people the “Assalama Kit” for hygiene and prevention against the virus in within social protection establishments [4] .

The government has taken a series of emergency measures to support women victims of violence, women with disabilities and elderly women by developing an awareness campaign.

A delicate follow-up was employed at the level of declared cases of violence with the aim of speeding up interventions, providing accommodation for victims or bringing them back to their marital home. In coordination with the National Mutual Aid, permanent monitoring was dedicated to the state of health of workers and beneficiaries of services in reception centers for women in difficult situations [5] .

  • Initiatives to mitigate the social effects of the crisis

In order to reduce the social impacts due to Covid 19, Morocco has developed several initiatives from which we quote:

– Aid to the Ramedist and non-Ramedist categories operating in the informal sector:

* 800 dirhams for households of two people or less;

* 1000 dirhams for households formed from three to four people;

* 1200 dirhams for households of more than four people.

-Allocation of a net monthly fixed allowance of 2000 dirhams, for the benefit of employees, people recruited by integration contract, fishermen, on cessation of activity, working for companies affiliated to the CNSS who are in difficulty and declared in February 2020.

-Strengthening of local services through support for association projects aimed at dealing with social repercussions during periods of medical confinement;

-Establishment of monitoring mechanisms for the protection of children against violence

-Upgrading of psychological support for children within social protection establishments.

– Establishment, for the benefit of families of autistic people, of guidance and communication units resulting from the Rafiq program.

– Establishment of a pedagogical permanence in order to ensure the continuity of the activities of the centers concerned with the education of children with disabilities.

– The Moroccan Association of the Handicapped (AMH Group) which offers a dedicated national platform for the identification and support of disabled people in these times of crisis, as well as a financial aid system [6] .

  • Axis 2: Economic impacts of Covid-19 in Morocco and the issue of debt

Through this axis, we will first read the global economic situation as well as the national one in the era of Covid19, then deepen an analysis of the various economic effects caused by this crisis of Covid19.

First, it is necessary to point out that the measures and actions that have been undertaken by Morocco on the social and economic level, had a great negative impact on the national economic activity, because the national income which is drawn mainly from tourism, the trade, foreign financial transfers and foreign direct investment, was subject to a historic recession because of the covid19 pandemic, as production would decrease and decline, which will generate both social and economic losses.

However, the economic impact of this covid19 pandemic is so generalized, global that indeed, all over the world, countries are not only called upon today to save the lives of their citizens but also and above all to save the economic future of their country.

2.1 Analysis of the global and Moroccan economic situation in the era of Covid 19

  • Global economic conditions in the age of Covid19

From the first days of this pandemic, it was noted that this crisis put the economic activity of the whole world in total halt or in partial halt, which resulted in losses which exceeded 900 billion dollars; according to the WTO, it has also reduced world trade by less than 13% with a recession of the world economy of –3%, the worst recession in world economic history. On the other hand, nearly 170 countries will experience a drop in their GDP per capita.

This crisis has called into question the foundations of the current global economic system. Thus, countries and governments today find themselves confronted with a major need that requires them to make radical and profound changes in their economic strategies.

The coronavirus pandemic has brought entire plans of the global economy to a halt, a situation that is increasingly evident every day. In the euro area, several surveys of business leaders have shown that their companies have recorded record declines compared to the months preceding the pandemic. In the United States, initial jobless claims have skyrocketed to unprecedented levels [7] .

Thus, the world economy has entered a phase of crisis at all levels. In addition, the recession of the world economy of -2.3%, recalls that of the year 2009 following the ”Subprime crisis” following mortgage loans granted lightly in the United States. The Covid 19 crisis, she was born in Wuhan in December 2019 in the province of Hubei in central China. While the 2008 crisis was initially financial with the bankruptcy of the Lehmann Brothers bank in September 2009, the 2020 crisis hit the real economy directly because of the containment and drastic measures (taken a little late by number of countries).

During the 2008 crisis, central banks carried out a real “big bang” by lowering key rates and injecting large amounts of liquidity to purchase public and private debt. For the 2020 crisis, the US Federal Reserve and the central banks of the European Union, Canada and England also injected liquidity, but to a lesser extent, when key rates are already very low [8 ] .

In the 2008 crisis, states spent massive amounts of money to revive the economy. France’s budget deficit, meanwhile, reached -7% in 2009, when the US state nationalized General Motors to avoid bankruptcy. Another difference between 2008 and 2020 is the weight of China, which has now become the second economic power on the planet and “the Workshop of the world”. This was clearly seen during the closure of Chinese factories due to the Covid19 pandemic, which closure caused major supply problems for the rest of the world.

The major economies responded with strong monetary and fiscal policy measures. The short-term evolution of demand and activity will depend entirely on the duration and severity of the containment of populations. Once it is lifted, the recovery is likely to be gradual and uneven. The action of the public authorities will have to evolve and the aid measures in the face of the pandemic must be able to revive growth, even with public finances still under strain [9] .

In the wake of the global crisis, the uncertainty of the global economy has led many companies to re-evaluate their business models. Rather than relying on global supply chains, a growing number of companies have invested in robots, which has led to a renaissance of manufacturing in industrialized countries. This situation shows that changes in the global economy due to COVID-19 make a recovery in the form of the coming recession unlikely. On the contrary, COVID-19 will accelerate the process started after the global crisis by encouraging companies to relocate their activities in rich countries.

The current coronavirus situation is having a profound impact on all types of businesses. With the temporary shutdown of some businesses and the slowdown in activities for many, the consequences of the pandemic are even worse for the global economy than those which followed the great financial crisis of 2007-2008.

The first country to suffer from the impact of COVID-19 is China, the world’s second-largest economy. The drastic lockdown, which required the closure or downsizing of a number of large manufacturing and retail businesses, has slowed the Chinese economy terribly [10] .

Strictly integrated into global value chains, China, the starting point of the pandemic, has become a major global economic player. Indeed, it is now the second largest economy in the world with a share of 15.8% in world GDP (calculations by SPF Economy based on figures from World Bank Data) and 12.8% in world merchandise exports. (figures from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development – UNCTAD). Due to the exponential evolution of the number of contaminations in other geographical areas, measures have been adopted to face the unprecedented global health, economic and human crisis [11] .

As the map below shows, almost every country in the world has experienced an unexpected crisis due to the Covid19 epidemic.

Map 1: presentation of the extent of the covid19 crisis in the world  :

Source: lafinancepourtous.co

By simply reading the map above, we can understand through these different indicators of several countries that they have experienced a major economic shock.

* In the euro zone,  the PMI index (survey of purchasing managers of companies) experienced the largest drop on record , after settling at 51.6 in February. This index is constructed in such a way that a number below 50 indicates a contraction, and a number above 50 represents an expansion of activity [12] .

* The extent of the crisis is also historic in the rest of the world. For example, Australia had so far experienced  the longest period of uninterrupted growth among developed countries . This trend is likely to stop, the Covid-19 is likely to plunge the country into recession.

* In the United States, the job market is deteriorating at breakneck speed. The last week of March saw  6.6 million Americans register for unemployment , double the previous week, which had already set a “record.” On average in recent years, about 250,000 Americans have registered as unemployed each week.

* In China,  industrial production plunged 13.5%  over the months of January and February 2020, compared to the same period in 2019. Such a drop is unprecedented in China since the country turned towards the market economy in the late 1970s.

The world economy is expected to post one of the most notable underperformances in history. The IMF’s economic outlook for April is not very optimistic. After forecasting an increase in world GDP in January 2020, the Bretton Woods Institute now expects it to decline by 2.9% in 2020, with brutal recessions in the euro zone, Spain and Italy in particular (-8% and -9.1% respectively.). For 2021, the economies of these countries are expected to rebound, recording growth rates ranging between 4.3% and 5.2%. The OECD [13] reports an annual loss of growth of 2 percentage points for each month of confinement and of 4 to 6 percentage points over a quarter in advanced and emerging countries.

In emerging and developing countries, the image is not more reassuring. The IMF expects a recession with a decline in the group’s GDP of 1% in 2020.

The Covid19 pandemic will undoubtedly bring about an unprecedented change in the world economy and trade, in production, consumption and the injection of foreign capital into national economies.

Figure 1: Growth projection – Euro Zone, 2000-2021:

Source: IMF

Figure 2: Growth projection – Emerging and developing countries, 2000-2021:

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2020.

Regarding the 1st and 2nd figures which express a projection of growth in the Euro zone and in emerging countries over the past 20 years, we see that economic growth has recorded the lowest rate. This is due to the closure of global economies and the lack of marketing between different countries.

Figure 3: Global growth, 2000-2021:

Source : Capital Economics, 2020.

The third figure analyzes the evolution of world growth in%, between 1880 and 2020. It can be seen that growth has gone through difficult times where growth has recorded negative rates, so that the corona virus has had a negative impact on growth at the global level like the crises of the 20s and 40s of the last century [14] .

Figure 4: Net portfolio investment outflows between 2008 and 2020:

Source : International Institute of Finance, 2020.

The fourth figure compares the net outflows of portfolio investment flows globally between 2008 and 2020. In 2008, as the figure shows, portfolio investment experienced a remarkable decline, but what is clear is that the decline in the latter in 2020 will be catastrophic since they recorded -87.5% in the first quarter of this year.

We must question the relationship between the economic balance and the health emergency of the Corona pandemic. The main approach to tackle this relationship is to choose development as an outcome to be achieved, to bet on it, to reconsider the reality of development in Moroccan society and to get rid of many axioms that we have to exchange. And we will not repeat it enough, it is time to discuss it under this circumstance. “

However, it should be noted that these figures should be taken with caution given the uncertainty weighing on the international economy. The hope is to be able to find a medical solution (vaccine or medical treatment) in a short time, which would facilitate a complete resumption of activity.

  • The Moroccan economic situation in the era of Covid19:

Before going into details and reading the inventory of “economic effects” of Covid19 in Morocco, it is considered necessary to provide a summary analysis of the current state of the Moroccan economy to the era of this pandemic.

It is obvious that Morocco, like other countries around the world, is facing an unprecedented economic scenario, dictated by the spread of the pandemic of the new coronavirus, Covid-19 [15] .

The unprecedented fallout from this pandemic threatens a global economic slump, which will negatively impact national economies, including that of our country. This will result in the drop in external demand addressed to Morocco, in particular the exports of new trades from Morocco, tourism receipts, transfers from Moroccans living abroad, FDI, in addition to the drop in domestic demand. , the deceleration of productive activity and the drop in consumption. There will thus be negative repercussions on the life of companies, on the performance of the national economy, macroeconomic balances, as well as on trade and the balance of payments [16] .

Preserving the capacity of the Moroccan economy was certainly necessary to meet its needs for basic foodstuffs, food and energy. It should be noted that the tourism sector has stopped, that the exporting sectors are affected and that the drop in remittances from Moroccans living abroad and foreign direct investments is expected.

There is no indication, through the figure below, of the impact of this pandemic on gross domestic product, which is clearly demonstrated by the following data in the curve below:

Figure 5: Evolution of GDP in%, 2000-2021:

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2020

Figure 6: Change in current account and budget balance, 2000-2021

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2020

The 1 st curve above, shows without a doubt that the Gross Domestic Product will experience a significant drop of up to minus 4%, which will inevitably affect the Moroccan economy and the volume of pressure and trade that generates currencies. strong, while the second curve shows the budget balance. However, in terms of percentage between 2000 and 2020, we can see today a clear and weak curve of the budgetary balance, which foreshadows a strong economic shock that Morocco will experience in the coming days, if there is no an important reaction at this level.

As of April 9, 2020, nearly 34 billion dirhams in donations from public and private entities as well as personal initiatives of citizens have been accumulated. These amounts will be deductible from the tax result.

As a response, and in accordance with a proactive approach, Morocco is leading all-out efforts to, on the one hand, contain the spread of the virus on its soil, and, on the other, save its national economy, including parts of it. whole body must have suddenly slowed down or given up completely [17] .

The Moroccan economy being an economy based, above all, on consumption, trade and tourism, serious losses have been recorded. The main sectors affected so far are tourism, automotive and textiles. With the transport and transit of goods operating normally, the impact of Covid19 on trade seems for the moment to be under control. Risks of a drop in supply and foreign demand, especially from the EU, could, however, arise in the future in certain sectors.

Tourism being the main sector affected by this scourge, the hotel industry is thus strongly impacted [18] .

The country’s vital sectors, and even Morocco’s relations with economic partners such as France, Spain and Italy, will deteriorate, as these countries are also experiencing the same crisis situation.

2.2 Economic effects of the covid19 epidemic in Morocco 

We will proceed in the following points to an analysis of the current state of the Moroccan economy through its various components because of the covid19 crisis;

  • General effects of covid19 on the national economy

At the beginning of April, nearly 142,000 companies, or 57% of all companies, declared that they had stopped their activities permanently or temporarily. Of this total, more than 135,000 companies have had to temporarily suspend their activities while 6,300 have ceased their activities permanently. By category of business, very small businesses (very small businesses) represent 72%, SMEs (small and medium-sized businesses) 26% and GEs (large businesses) 2% of businesses temporarily or permanently shut down.

The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has created a real economic crisis on a global scale. And Morocco has not escaped it. Several sectors saw their activities come to a complete or partial halt after the establishment of the state of health emergency.

The Moroccan economy is an economy that is primarily focused on consumption, trade and tourism, Morocco will experience serious losses in 2020.

We will try to unveil a reading on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Moroccan economy by focusing on the key sectors affected. The main sectors affected so far are tourism, automotive and textiles.

The growth rate of the Moroccan economy forecast for the current year will be 2.6%. In 2020, it would stand at 4.6%, or 2 points more [19]. These are forecasts before the covid19 crisis, but because of the latter and according to studies carried out in this context forecasts a decline in GDP between 3% and 6.5% in 2020 and a doubling of the budget deficit to 7.5% of GDP [20] .

Also in relation to the economy of Morocco, some studies have estimated losses of around 30 billion dirhams in the second quarter of this year and growth forecasts that should fall to less than 6.8%. This has led his Majesty King Mohamed VI, may God assist him, to take certain preventive health, economic and other measures to face this pandemic with the creation of a new special council in this crisis situation, which The main objective of the council is to watch over the pace of economic development in Morocco [21] .

A sharp decline in growth excluding agriculture is also expected this year. However, it should not collapse. A watch committee has been set up to react to the effects of the pandemic. Expense deferrals until the end of June have already been announced as well as monthly lump-sum allowances for employees of companies in difficulty. Discussions are also underway to help workers in the informal sector. The financing will be provided by a support fund which has already reached nearly 30 billion dirhams (MAD), or 2.5% of GDP, including the State endowment of 10 billion MAD, the rest coming from voluntary contributions [22] .

We now analyze the effect of this crisis on growth, consumption, investment and trade;

  • The growth

Following the quarterly meeting of its board of directors on March 17, the Moroccan Central Bank revised down its national growth forecasts for 2020 from 3.8% to 2.3% given the combined effect of the poor grain harvest and the global spread of the pandemic. “The current conditions suggest that we are heading towards the weakest growth of the last 20 years”, according to the High Commissioner for Planning. Bank Al-Maghrib has therefore decided to reduce its key rate from 25bp to 2% in order to support national economic activity. The Moroccan Conjuncture Center, for its part, expects growth limited to 0.8% in 2020 [23] .

  • Consumption and investment

Given the freeze in business activities, the expected rise in the unemployment rate as well as the health measures undertaken (confinement, closure of restaurants, cafes, factories, etc.), a drop in household consumption (excluding necessities) and investment should be expected [24]

  • Trade

The current impact on trade seems contained in view of the observed normal conditions of transit and transport of goods. Risks of supply to the Moroccan market in imported inputs and a drop in foreign demand remain, however, possible. Indeed, the crisis could impact Morocco’s foreign trade, which represents 32% of GDP. According to a CFG Bank study, a 20% drop in total volumes of goods traded is expected, equivalent to a loss of 2.6 million tonnes each month from March 2020.

 In terms of the trade balance, a slowdown in exports remains probable in view of the disruption of supply chains, the lengthening of the processing times for cases and the drop in foreign demand addressed to Morocco. At the same time and given the current poor cereal harvest, the country is forced to import massively basic products such as wheat or corn. As such, a decree in the process of being adopted provides for the suspension of customs duties on imports until June 15 of common wheat, durum wheat and legumes (peas, lentils, beans, white beans) until see you again. This increase in imports could be offset by the decline in oil prices (currently less than USD 30 per barrel) which should allow the country to reduce its energy bill.

 In view of the tensions that seem to emerge on foreign currency reserves, the Director General of Customs has sent a request to the Association of AIVAM Vehicle Importers in order to reduce imports to the strict minimum by negotiating with suppliers to postpone them. . It should be noted that as part of the measures taken in the context of the Covid-19 crisis, shipments of surgical masks, antiseptic preparations and protective masks have been subject to licensing. A European company reported having encountered restrictions on the export of pharmaceutical products from Morocco (the Delegation checks if the problem affects more than one company).

However, the Moroccan economy has started to show signs of good health and to focus on sustainable development, new energies, the attraction of foreign capital, the increase in trade, the improvement of the business climate, but this does not happen. will not prevent it from facing the fallout from this health crisis. Indeed, based on the primary and tertiary sectors, without omitting the textile, the automotive industry and new technologies, the Moroccan economy expects to experience its worst crisis in three decades.

Moroccan economic players and government must revise their growth ambitions downwards. Having counted on a growth rate of 3.5% in 2020, a rebalancing of the trade balance, in particular given the fall in the price of oil and the reduction of both domestic and foreign debt, they must resign themselves to managing a slowdown with high financial and social costs.

  • Economic effects of covid19 by key sector

By analyzing the impact of the corona virus on the Moroccan economy by sector, we notice that the degree of impact of Covid-19 on trade varies from one sector to another. It was found that some exporting sectors, for example; the food industry, textiles and automobiles are leading the sectors most affected by this covid19 crisis. However, there are other sectors that have not experienced the same losses, notably the fruit and vegetable sector.

Since the outbreak of the pandemic and the entry into force of containment around mid-March, transport, real estate, the automotive and aeronautics industry have been almost at a standstill while other sectors such as the supermarkets, the pharmaceutical industry and new technologies are increasingly in demand [25] .

An analysis is now being carried out of the main sectors that have suffered major consequences due to the Covid19 pandemic

  • Tourism 

Tourism is one of the sectors that will pay a heavy price for this Covid19 health crisis. The study quotes the National Tourism Confederation (CNT) which assessed the impact of the Covid-19 crisis at MAD 34.1 billion in loss in terms of tourism turnover in 2020 and MAD 14 billion in loss in terms of turnover for the hotel industry, for an overall drop of nearly 6 million tourists (-98%), which will cause a total loss of 11.6 million overnight stays [26] .

  • Transportation

Air transport is suffering from the precautionary measures applied and the drop in demand. The pandemic could lead to losses of at least 4.9 million passengers in Morocco and a shortfall of 728 million USD. In addition, air traffic disruptions could put more than 225,000 jobs at risk [27] . Road and rail transport will be affected by the crisis because of the ban on the movement of passenger transport vehicles from March 24.

  • Manufacturing industry 

The impact of Covid19 on industry can manifest itself, on the one hand, in the supply of raw materials and inputs which are less and less available, and, on the other hand, in the drop in foreign demand. Associated products (e.g. automotive sector) are particularly affected because they consist of items manufactured in various countries:

Automotive sector   The objective of reaching 1 million vehicles per year by 2022 is very threatened; the sector is currently at a standstill following the decisions of Renault and PSA, locomotives of the automotive sector in Morocco, to temporarily suspend their activity in the Kingdom as of March 19.

It should be noted that the temporary shutdown of Renault’s activity at its two production sites in Tangier and Casablanca concerns 11,000 employees, and the suspension of PSA’s activities at Atlantic Free Zone affects 1,600 employees and has repercussions. on its equipment manufacturers and its 66 suppliers. However, in the long term, this suspension of activity could have repercussions on the 180,000 individuals employed by the automotive industry, the 250 automotive suppliers operating in Morocco around nine ecosystems (Wiring, vehicle interior & seats, metal stamping, battery, PSA, engines, Renault, Delphi and Valeo).

Textile / clothing Until now there is not a clear vision for the operators of this sector, the textile sector, employing more than 160,000 individuals within 1,200 companies, encounters both a problem at the of its foreign supply and demand.

  • Extractive Industry

The extractive industry in turn has suffered negative losses due to the situation of the world economy, the phosphate sector seems for the moment immune and we know very well the crucial role of the agricultural sector in the Moroccan economic fabric.

* The phosphate   sector This sector has experienced more or less a degree of resistance compared to other sectors, so some studies have shown that the extractive industry could suffer the depressive effect of the world economy, but that the phosphate sector seems immune for the moment.

* Agriculture   Small farmers and cooperatives are the parties most affected by this covid19 crisis. The cancellation of the annual agricultural fair “SIAM” this year will generate additional losses and will cost the segment of cooperatives and economic groups more than 12 M MAD of goods with a risk of loss of turnover between 60% and 80%. Regarding fruit and vegetables, the Association of Producers and Exporters of Fruit and Vegetables (APEFEL) indicates that exports of fruit and vegetables to the EU are currently increasing due to the slowdown in Spanish, Portuguese and Spanish production. Italian. Likewise, prices are also increasing compared to normal market conditions [28] .

  • Financial sector

The main index of the Moroccan Stock Exchange MASI lost 21.6% between February 28 and March 20. The Moroccan Capital Market Authority (AMMC) has decided, as of March 17, 2020, to revise downwards the maximum variation thresholds applicable to financial instruments listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange. As such, the maximum variation, upward and downward, of the price of a financial instrument during a single session may not exceed 4% of the reference price for equity securities whose quotation is in continuous mode. This threshold was limited to 2% of the reference prices for equity securities whose quotation is in fixing mode and for debt securities.

Figure 7: Evolution of the MASI (Between February 28 and March 17)

Source:  leboursier.ma

The MASI has, in fact, lost 24.16% between February 28, 2020, the last trading session before the appearance on Monday March 2 of the first case of Coronavirus in Morocco, and Tuesday March 17 (date of entry into force of the provision limiting variations in thresholds) [29] .

  • Effects of covid-19 on public finances:

With the slowdown in economic activity experienced by Morocco in the era of covid19, several discussions took place at several levels, including within Parliament, on the need for an amending finance law. The Istiqlal Group of the first chamber insisted on it, as it had also done in 2018. If everyone, including the Minister of the Economy and Finance, agrees that Finance Law 70.19 for the 2020 has been overtaken by the advent of Covid-19, given that the economic and financial assumptions on which it was built have lost their relevance, the dialogue continues on how to proceed with this revision [30] .

This forces decision-makers and the various stakeholders to think of a new model of public finance management in particular and of governance in general.

Still in relation with the finance law which has already been adopted, it should be noted that the main basic assumptions on which the law 70.19 was composed are 6 assumptions namely: the price of a barrel of oil, the cereal production, the price average butane gas, the growth rate, the trade deficit and debt. These assumptions have all become obsolete, and with a big difference in the values ​​initially retained.

The sudden changes in these assumptions have almost forced the government to a kind of “manual control” of public finance management and ad hoc decision-making, at the pace of meetings of the Economic Watch Committee (CVE), thanks to the systematic recourse to facilities granted by Articles 60 and 62 of the Organic Law on the Finance Law (LOLF). Some say that our government does not like Amending Finance Laws (LFR), despite the very short deadlines given to Parliament for their review and approval [31] .

However, on Tuesday June 16, 2020, Bank Al-Maghrib decided to reduce the interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.5%, following its meeting in the second quarter of 2020 and fully liberalize the account. reserve to banks ” [32] ..

According to the same source, we note that Bank Al-Maghrib has worked in the same direction to take specific measures to support the refinancing of bank loans intended for participatory banks and microcredit associations. It should be noted that these new decisions, as well as the various implementing measures have been initiated, in particular the widening of the scope of the acceptable guarantee in the form of refinancing operations, and the strengthening of the bank’s unconventional programs and the temporary relaxation of prudential rules, in addition to measures taken by the government, are helping to mitigate the pandemic and support the recovery of the economy and employment.

Of course, this crisis has real consequences on the Moroccan economy and on public finances in particular; this crisis which can happen at any time and it is necessary to adopt a rigid economic system but also flexible which can resist this kind of scourge. Public finances in turn have been negatively impacted by this virus, which will give rise to disruptions in the Moroccan financial system, which can be summarized as follows:

* A reduction in ordinary revenue of 10% (84.8 billion dirhams at the end of May 2020 against 94.2 billion dirhams in 2019). This reduction is explained by:

* The decline in VAT receipts (first cash resource) by 10% following the decline in consumption and imports

* The decline in RI revenues of 9.6%

* Decrease in Tic by 17%.

* An increase in ordinary expenses of 10.6% compared to 2019 (102 billion dirhams against 92.2 billion dirhams)

* A decline in investment spending with a rate of 11% (27 billion dirhams against 30.4 billion dirhams in 2019)

* A budget deficit – 25.5 billion dirhams (- 19.5 billion in 2019) with COVID 19 fund effect and – 43.6 billion dirhams without COVID 19 fund effect.

  • Debt in Morocco in the era of covid19 and the problem of financing the economy

In view of the negative impact of  Covid-19  on the national economy and taking into account the stoppage of activity recorded by several sectors of activity such as tourism, textiles and the automotive sector, the fall in revenue corporate tax and income tax, a significant decline cannot be avoided.

In addition, the decline in external demand will undoubtedly result in a drastic fall in revenue from customs duties and value added tax [33] .

Debt has increasingly become a solution and a necessity for Morocco because of the critical situation of the Moroccan economy, due to the covid19 pandemic. A double emergency is required today for the Kingdom: to support businesses and households facing the partial shutdown of activity, then to revive the economy when the Covid-19 pandemic recedes. Only many people fear that when the crisis is behind us, Morocco will find itself weighed down by more debt.

However, it is essential to remember that the initial situation of a country’s public finances is decisive in order to get back on the road to recovery.

However, the public debt was already significant and worrying in 2019. As the figures show, at the end of 2019, the outstanding external debt of the Treasury stood at 161.5 billion DH. At the end of December 2019, the outstanding external debt outside the Treasury stood at MAD 178.3 billion. During the same year, resources from external public sector borrowing amounted to an overall volume of DH 39.4 billion DH 25.5 billion was mobilized by the Treasury and DH 13.9 billion by other public borrowers [34 ] .

Because of the covid19 crisis on the Moroccan economy and on its revenues in particular, Morocco has released an amount of 3 billion dollars from the IMF, which will increase the amount of debts for this year. It is certain that debt is considered today as a magic solution in order to revive the Moroccan economy and the sectors which have been most affected by this pandemic. The question that arises here, could Morocco achieve a growth rate that would allow it to pay these debts?

It is a first that  Morocco has resorted to the precautionary and liquidity line (LPL) of the  International Monetary Fund  (IMF). And this, for an amount of 3 billion dollars. Objective: to face the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic. This unprecedented drawing is “repayable over five years, with a three-year grace period,” the kingdom’s central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib, said in a statement. Its mobilization comes “within the framework of the agreement under the LPL concluded with the (IMF) in 2012 and renewed for the third time in December 2018, for a period of two years, with the intention of using it as insurance against extreme shocks, ”said the same source.

 The LPL is an instrument designed “to serve as insurance or to help resolve crises in a wide range of situations,” the IMF also says on its website. In the meantime, the Shereefian kingdom has received a loan from the World Bank of 275 million dollars intended for disaster risk management [35] .

A large amount and a very serious debt, but in any case, the LPL system of the IMF serves as a guarantee for developing countries or economically destabilized to calm the international markets and especially in such crisis situations, and the beneficiary countries do not are not required or often do not need to activate these sums.

In this regard, Morocco, and following the negative effects of the covid19 epidemic, has decided to resort to it at a time when “the pandemic; of unprecedented magnitude, suggests a world economic recession much deeper than that of 2009 ”, which will consequently impact the local economy, argued Bank Al-Maghrib. This recourse “will help to mitigate the impact of this crisis on our economy and to maintain our foreign exchange reserves at an adequate level”. This sum will be “allocated primarily to the financing of the balance of payments and will not impact the public debt, which constitutes a first in our financial transactions with the IMF”, underlines again the Moroccan institution.

  • Axis 3: Results & modalities of restarting the Moroccan economy:

Through this axis, we will address the different possible scenarios of the restart of the Moroccan economy after the covid19 crisis, with a view to drawing out the recommendations and the methods required for a safe revival of the Moroccan economy.

Morocco had to face a double shock. On the one hand, in terms of supply, some sectors are at a standstill, others have slowed down. On the other hand, demand is also heavily affected, since citizens no longer consume because of the confinement. All in a year of drought.

Of all the expected assumptions, the only certainty is that the longer the duration of confinement, the greater the impact on growth will be. The forecast of negative growth of 3.2% thus corresponds to the duration of confinement announced so far by the public authorities. But if the confinement continues for another month, we will easily achieve -7% growth [36] .

3.1 Possible scenarios for the Moroccan economy after the Covid-19 crisis:

No one will be able to deny that the consequences of the Covid-19 crisis will be too heavy for Morocco and in particular on the economic level. They already are. They have neglected no region of the world or any sector of activity. Morocco will be affected for a simple reason, the world economy has become strongly globalized, under the effect of the relocation of production and the globalization of trade. However, we know very well the role played by foreign direct investment, tourism and trade in the national economy [37] .

In the same vein, Mr. Mohamed Benchaaboun, the Minister of Economy, Finance and Administrative Reform, said that the reflection for after Corona had been launched some time ago, indicating that a preventive reflection had been place within the vigilance committee to define the scenarios that could be implemented in relation to the next two phases ” [38] .

This reflection, according to the Minister of Finance, goes hand in hand with the immediate measures taken to help businesses and families alleviate the effects of the crisis and the establishment of a health emergency, explaining that it was agreed in within the framework of the economic vigilance committee of a proactive reflection methodology based on the definition of scenarios that can be implemented for the next two phases.

The government official added that the revival of the national economy will only be achieved by mobilizing the necessary resources and ensuring that priority is given to their use in the national economy, noting that “this is what that we are currently doing through meetings with different ministerial sectors to establish a measure that optimizes public spending in this exceptional period [39] “.

As the threat of a major global economic crisis hangs over the world, Morocco appears to be bracing for post-coronavirus life, and the country is putting all of its players to work.

Morocco will continue to work within the framework of a special commission to closely monitor developments and take the necessary economic policy measures to strengthen the resilience of the national economy to shocks caused by the current health crisis.

It is also necessary to rethink the public service and to stress the importance of the roles of the State, which must increase its economic potential and achieve development, with regard to the education, health and social sectors. social security, and create investments in infrastructure that affect the vast majority of citizens. Tax reforms should also be undertaken to develop state resources equitably, which means “progressive taxation” as real tax reform in which everyone contributes to the extent of their available capacities.

3.2 Figures and discussions on the social and economic consequences of Covid19:

Globally, in terms of social consequences, statistics assume a loss of 225,000 jobs to 25 million job vacancies and that 436 establishments will suffer very heavy losses. Private sector incomes will decline by around 60% and between 8.8% and 35 million people will exceed the poverty line [40] . At the national level, it should be noted that certain statistics have been made to evoke the effect of the Covid19 on Moroccan society, thus making it possible to assess many losses, namely the loss of employment where an increase in employment is expected. unemployment index at 10.5% with 208,000 jobs lost.

Nevertheless, the state of emergency applied to deal with the spread of the pandemic has helped develop the sense of solidarity through the donations and support granted to poor individuals.

It has also developed a sense of belonging, where the state has shown that public health is ahead of economic interests due to the closure of borders [41] . On a personal level, the sense of recognition has been revisited, the individual will become more careful about what he had as basic rights, namely, his freedom to move around, to socialize.

However, it should not be overlooked that the state of emergency can create a certain psychological imbalance in some individuals, especially in people who are not able to manage their social isolation. Since the latter will be detached from their habits which once represented their comfort zone, this state could generate a feeling of fear, loss, and even lead to depression.

Therefore, we can summarize the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic at the national level as follows:

* For every day of confinement, a loss of $ 101 million

* Containment causes Morocco to lose 6 points of its GDP for the year 2020

* Negative growth of the national economy of around 1.8% for the second quarter of 2020

* The balance of payments deficit will widen to 33 billion dirhams

* The value of exports of phosphate and derivatives decreased by 40%

* Suspension of the activity of 11,300 companies

* Losses in the tourism sector estimated at 34.1 billion dirhams

* The hotel sector will lose 14 billion dirhams [42]

Beyond the impact of Covid-19 on the economy, GDP will also suffer from drought and agricultural value added, which represents around 12% of GDP, is expected to decline by 2.7% in 2020.

Being also highly dependent on the European economy, the Kingdom’s economic activity will inevitably be impacted by the decline in European growth. As a reminder, the EU represents more than 58% of Moroccan exports, 59% of the stock of FDI, 70% of tourist receipts and 69% of transfers from Moroccans Residing Abroad (MRE) [43] .

  • Recommendations for a successful restart of the Moroccan economy 

On this point, we will proceed with some guidelines and tests to trace the transitional path of the Moroccan economy for the coming years in order to better emerge from this pandemic crisis of covid19.

In Morocco, the mechanism for developing a recovery plan is underway through three initiatives:

  1. Parliament’s request to the EESC to carry out an impact study and assess the consequences of the Covid-19 crisis on economic and social plans;
  2. The stimulus plan proposal made by the CGEM;
  3. The last financing guarantee mechanism developed by the CVE, in addition to the measures already taken as soon as this committee was set up and the Special Fund for the management of the pandemic (Support to employees affiliated to the CNSS, to RAMED beneficiaries, deferral system for bank, tax and social security payments, etc.) [44] .

Our country must enter into a program and a major project to finance the revival of the Moroccan economy, which has suffered considerable losses due to the crisis induced by the pandemic of the new coronavirus (Covid-19).

Thus, today, our country has no choice and is called upon to get into debt internally and externally as far as possible, but that supposes that this debt finances innovation, scientific research and the promotion of educational system. We must also use the domestic market to raise funds.

Qualifying as “judicious” the decision to restart the economy, it is necessary to base oneself on the currency, the tax and the public debt which constitute “three essential modalities” for the recovery [45] of the Moroccan economy.

The first modality must act on the point of supply and demand by money; to do this, it is necessary to offer subsidized interest rates to the profits of sectors deemed to be priorities.

As for the primordial role played by taxes at this critical moment, we must think of a tax reform based on the reduction of the value added tax (VAT) in order to stimulate demand, reduce inequalities and not ruin money. benefit the purchasing power of citizens.

We also add the submission of high-end products imported from abroad to a very high tax rate during this period of transition, or even restructuring of the national economy; all this in order to improve the trade balance and orient consumption towards Moroccan products which are considered as products which can compete with foreign products.

However, this transition will not be easy for Moroccans in view of the heavy bill of covid19; for example, unemployment, business bankruptcies, loss of export market share due to disruptions in value chains, costs related to the reorganization of VSEs and SMEs, which are considered for ourselves the biggest challenge for the Moroccan economy in recent years. It is certain that this will take a long time.

As of now, we can be quite optimistic and judge that this restart has several advantages for Moroccan companies and for the national economy in general, if we respect the health measures to succeed in this step and avoid any risk associated with the recovery or a new spread of this virus on the national territory. At this stage, a guide of instructions has already been made available to companies, which should have the capacity to integrate the social and societal dimension into their strategic approach, which is considered a key factor for improving the company. Moroccan.

And finally, we can recommend and put in place a plan that contains two steps for a successful recovery;

* The first consists of an immediate revival of retail trade, construction, textiles, automobiles, the pharmaceutical industry, the food industry and paper,

* The second stage should affect the rest of the sectors to boost activity, such as the informal branches (repairs, intermediate goods, etc.) which are “of vital importance for the economy”.

Before going to the conclusion of our paper, and by coincidence with the royal speech on the occasion of the feast of the throne, His Majesty King Mohamed VI announced several projects and reforms, especially on the economic and social level, the reason which led us to present the main points of this Royal speech at the time of covid19, there are seven of them [46]  :

  • Developing a roadmap for a plan that will challenge the covid19 pandemic, if there will be a second wave of this virus,
  • The launch of a stimulus plan of 120 billion DH, or the equivalent of 11% of the GDP, to allow the production sectors to get back on their feet, increase their capacity to create jobs and preserve sources of income;
  • The creation of a strategic investment fund to fulfill a mission of supporting production, accompaniment and financing activities of large public-private investment projects, in a variety of fields;
  • The launch of a major reform of the public sector to correct the structural dysfunctions of public establishments and enterprises;
  • The creation of a National Agency whose mission will consist in ensuring the strategic management of State holdings and in monitoring the performance of public establishments;
  • The launch, over the next five years, of the process of generalization of social coverage for all Moroccan citizens, this plan will start on January 1, 2021, following a specific action program;
  • A severe analysis and reform of social systems and programs, especially through the Unified Social Register (RSU).

Conclusion

From the first days of this pandemic, it was noted that economic activity around the world was strained with a partial shutdown for some sectors and even total for others such as tourism for example. This crisis has therefore resulted in losses exceeding 900 billion dollars; according to the WTO, it also caused world trade to fall by less than 13% with a recession of the world economy of –3%, ie the worst recession in world economic history. In addition, nearly 170 countries will experience a drop in their GDP per capita.

This crisis has called into question the foundations of the current global economic system. Countries and governments are therefore now confronted with a major need which requires them to make radical and profound changes in their economic strategies.

The Moroccan economy, for its part, being an economy centered, above all, on consumption, trade and tourism, Morocco could experience considerable losses. So far, the main sectors affected are mainly tourism, automobile and textiles. The impact of Covid19 on trade and consumption seems limited for the moment. Risks of a drop in supply and foreign demand, particularly from the EU, could, however, arise in the future in certain sectors, the automobile industry among others.

By analyzing the impact of the coronavirus on the Moroccan economy by sector, we notice that the degree of impact of the Covid19 on trade varies from one sector to another. While some exporting sectors, for example the food industry, textiles and the automotive industry are leading the sectors most affected by this covid19 crisis, the fact remains that other sectors have not experienced the same losses, especially the fruit and vegetable sector.

On the other hand, on the social level, it should be noted that certain statistics have been produced to measure the effect of Covid19 on Moroccan society. They have thus made it possible to assess the many losses, namely the losses of job where the unemployment index is expected to increase to 10.5% with 208,000 jobs lost. Nevertheless, the state of emergency applied to deal with the spread of the pandemic has made it possible to develop the sense of solidarity and to attenuate to a certain extent the negative effects on an already weakened society, through the donations and support granted. to destitute individuals as well as by the indemnities granted by the CNSS to employees whose structures have been forced to close.

Thus, to remedy the considerable losses due to the crisis induced by the Coronavirus pandemic (Covid19), Morocco is required to develop a program to revive the Moroccan economy. But the recurring questions are: What are the key areas that need quick help? How to finance this plan to revive the Moroccan economy? What will be the new economic model of Morocco post covid19?

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  • List of figures:
  • Figure 1: Growth projection – Euro Zone, 2000-2021,
  • Figure 2: Growth projection – Emerging and developing countries, 2000-2021,
  • Figure 3: Global growth, 2000-2021,
  • Figure 4: Net portfolio investment outflows between 2008 and 2020,
  • Figure 5: change in GDP in%, 2000-2021,
  • Figure 6: change in the current account and budget balance, 2000-2021,
  • Figure 7: Evolution of the MASI (Between February 28 and March 17).
  • Menu :
  • Map 1: presentation of the extent of the covid19 crisis in the world.

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