African studiesSecurity studies

The most Dangerous five years in the history conflict over the Nile River

Prepared by: Mohsen Ramadan El-Koumi – PhD Researcher in Islamic Culture (Management major) Egypt

The Arab Democratic Center

Will Ethiopia be Israel’s guardian of the Nile?

A question that represents the slogan for this period of time and is considered an essential basis for study

Summary :

The research represents a historical account of the events of the conflict over the Nile in a period of five years, from 2011 to 2015. As it is the most accurate and most dangerous years of conflict than the rest of the periods, although it does not carry with it military roughness, but it is characterized by dynamism, speed and attempt to resolve the results on the ground (such as building the Renaissance Dam and starting mobilization) and also for the diversity of the parties to the conflict, some of which are characterized by process and achievement, others are dependent or betrayed more accurately. Description. The period was described by the process by Ethiopia, which started with an attempt to collect the voices of the Nile Basin around the agreements to redistribute the water of the river and ended with the declaration of principles in Khartoum, “March 2015”, so that the dispute over the years of filling was not the existence of the dam originally and the extent of its legality.

Abstract:

This study illustrates a historical presentation of the events of the conflict over the Nile River in a time period of five years, starting from 2011 to 2015. As It is the most significant and critical period of the conflict, despite the fact that it does not carry military roughness, but it is characterized by dynamism and speed and trying to force on-ground unilateral practices (such as building the Renaissance Dam and the commencement of filling stage); in addition, . This period has been described as practical from the Ethiopian side who tried to assemble the voices of the Nile Stream Countries on a new re – distribution agreement of river water and ended up with the Declaration of Principles in Khartoum ” in March 2015 ” which altered the course of dispute to be over the years of filling the Dam and not the existence of the dam at all and the legitimacy of its existence. This period caused a confusion for the watchers due to the dramatic shift in attitudes from strength in Egypt’s and Sudan’s side to a state of weakness, . What are the hidden issues that causes these extreme changes that provided Ethiopia with strength to exclusively control and the strong status? . On the other hand, did Israel hasten to support and administer this file with Ethiopia, and that the negotiating administration was an Israeli file with bure Zionist mentality in all its stages

an introduction :

The struggle over the waters of the Nile represents a long history as a struggle of existence, not luxury, as it exists from ancient times, and history has still been written for us by legendary epics that reflect the meaning and outcome of the eternal conflict, and why not, and the waters today occupied a place that aspires to be at the forefront of all concerns discussed by the international community The reason is due to scarcity and also poor distribution and consumption. Add to that pollution, and it is not hidden in light of this atmosphere that afflicts water. It is practiced by some countries, especially those that control the headwaters of rivers, on the riparian states, especially the downstream or downstream (Al-Anani, 2013) [1] That is why the modern period of colonialism is considered one of the most important periods of this conflict, which he says “Please benefit” the Norwegian academic and professor of scientific history at the University of Oslo, Norway, expressing in his book “The Nile in the British Age” (European governments took advantage of the colonial domination of the African continent in general, and in The river basin in particular, in managing the division of specific areas of influence for easy control, and then controlling the capabilities of the people of the Nile Basin, as the Nile waters used a pressure factor on the governments of these peoples, whether before the border was demarcated by the colonizer, or after the peoples ’attempts to fight the battles of their political independence And the economic alike) (Tafdet, 2019) [2] .

If the period of political colonization of the brown continent is an essential stage in the history of the conflict, the independence period is also considered an important period, rather it is the most dangerous one because the charge d’affaires is the original and not the colonialist, because the decisions taken by the state itself should be in the public interest of the state as a people, land and political system.

Objectives of the study:

The objectives of the study revolved around several main points, including:

The definition of the period from 2010 to 2015 AD being the most accurate and dangerous period in the history of the conflict, because of the speed of changing positions and it was concluded with the Declaration of Principles that contributed to undermining the opportunities for Egyptian change of reality
Evidence of Israeli interference in the conflict equation
Show that the construction of the dam is essentially contrary to international rules and laws.
A demonstration of the multiple Ethiopian quarrels that aim to clamp down on Egypt and Sudan and control their water sources, and that the Entebbe Agreement is only a model of these quarrels .
the study Problem :

The problem of the study is concentrated in the lack of research and previous studies in the conflict in the Nile Basin specifically in this period of time, as well as the diversity of events and the speed of their change in a short time, especially that it is considered a period marked by peaceful diplomacy while it is more dangerous than the movement of armies. Therefore, monitoring of events relied on outputs and reports of technicians and experts.

The study hypotheses:

The research is based on several hypotheses, namely:

The time period from 2010 to 2015 is the most accurate and most dangerous era in the history of the conflict over the entire Nile Basin, given that it has given Ethiopia strength and impedance to complete its water project and enabled itself without the use of a weapon or military effort, which it did not previously possess over the course of the conflict while the position Egypt has eroded and has become a fragile degree of acceptance of the fait accompli as the weakest period of conflict time.
The Israeli hand and the Zionist mind manage Ethiopia’s dam file and outline its steps.
The Declaration of Principles signed between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in Khartoum in 2015 had wasted Egyptian-Sudanese rights and weakened the negotiating position of both.
Study Approach :

The study was characterized by two colors of research methods, including

The research relied extensively on the historiography approach as a research study approach, as the study monitored during the previous time periods the infiltration of the Israeli hand and an attempt to gain positions within the Nile Basin through the Ethiopian harmony, as well as the course of events and the dates of the agreements
The deduction method was adopted where we can, through the rules of international law and previous agreements, infer the original Egyptian and Sudanese right to the waters of the Nile and that international rules do not allow Ethiopia to build the dam, and that Egypt and Sudan’s signing of the Declaration of Principles is the most dangerous in this simple time period and it came to destroy recognized international rights that were Under it, Egypt can change the equation of conflict even if it is a rough change by the force of arms.
Study plan :

The study plan included:

The first topic: The history of the Israeli presence in the Nile file
The second topic: the Entebbe Agreement and the path of objection to it
The third topic: Renaissance Dam and the impact of the Declaration of Principles on changing the equation of conflict
The first topic :

1/1 The history of the Israeli presence in the Nile file

Since ancient times, Israel has endeavored to impose colonial domination on most Arab countries, especially African ones, especially those that enjoy a distinct strategic location, such as the Nile Basin countries, to benefit in achieving its ambitions in that region (Ubaid, 2013) [3]In pursuit of its dream “from the Nile to the Euphrates” that recurrent chant, which constitutes a firm belief among the Zionists, and on the other hand, the misfortune of this slogan among the jealous of the sons of the Arab nation is an endless anxiety as they were raised to see Greater Israel as representing anger and wound that does not end in their chest All of them are between the dream of others and the anxiety of these. Each team seeks to prove existence, but the Zionist steps were more accurate and comprehensive in the impact, as it drew its steps and dreams from their first meeting in 1897 in their fateful conference “Basel”, which was one of the most important results of the establishment of the World Zionist Organization led by Tudor Herzl who succeeded in Promotion of the idea of ​​returning to Palestine. Indeed, the organization succeeded in diaspora from all the Bekaa to the extent that their sixth conference in 1903 reached the number of participants 600 members and the Zionist societies branched and multiplied to achieve the number of 1,572 associations. (Palestinian, World Zionist Organization, 2015) [4] .

But what is the Israeli role in the Nile file ?? It is noticeable that from the first day of the World Zionist Conference, the Nile file was present at the discussion table, in which several files were included, including controlling the sources of the Nile through looking at Africa, especially that Uganda was among the countries proposed for the establishment of the State of Israel next to Palestine and Argentina, and that the Nile file is considered an entry point. To ensure Zionist sustainability in Palestine, but the Uganda file remained a strategic alternative in the event of the failure of plans in Palestine led to a severe and dangerous division among the Jews when it was presented at the sixth conference. Palestine, 2013) [5]With emphasis on the exploitation of Uganda as an entry point to control the brown continent, to which Ethiopia was added after that after an American-Israeli preparation to play a prominent regional role, especially with the Nile file and the countries of the basin.

Israel monitored the evaluation of the African voice in international forums and its ability to represent 31% of the total votes in the General Assembly, and therefore decided to move towards Africa, especially after:

He refused Israel’s membership in the “Bandung 1955” conference, which was held in Indonesia in the presence of heads of African and Asian countries and lasted for six days. As a result, the Non-Aligned Movement advocated by the Indian leader Nehru called into the conference and rejected the membership of Israel, in which he became the last one in complete isolation, so I decided to Increase the rate of acceptance internationally, so I headed to a penetrating and infiltrated Africa

The Strait of Tiran and the Gulf of Aqaba were opened for Israeli navigation after the three aggressions against Egypt in 1956 in the framework of settling the problems of the occupation in Sinai, which helped facilitate communication with the brown continent due to the fact that part of Egypt came under Jewish control, so Israel was able to establish diplomatic relations with the countries of the Anil Basin, including ( Kenya, Congo, Uganda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Ronda) (Ubaid, 2013) [6] where maps were recorded in the years (1961, 1962 and 1963) in the Department of African Affairs in Egypt, military agreements the most serious of which were with Ethiopia and thus easy for them to deal with Africa as a whole but After the “Setback 67” and the meeting of the African Awakening and total solidarity with Egypt, Israel lost its diplomatic ties again.

1/2 The effects of the peace treaty on Israeli-Israeli relations

The “Camp David 1979 Peace Treaty” agreement between Israel and Egypt had a strong impact in restoring and even valuing the Israeli-Israeli relations. As a result of that, the visit of (Yitzhak Shamir) (Zaire) in 1982, and precisely in 1989, Israel was able to restore its relationship with eight African countries.

After this agreement, the Egyptian side started talking about the excess of Egypt’s consumption from the Nile River and published it in the official newspapers in the end of 79 and the beginning of the 80’s. From fresh water, Sadat announced his idea to divert Nile water to the Negev, and the hottest interactions on the issue rose after the Al-Ahram newspaper published in August 1980 the correspondence between Sadat and Beijing, and between Sadat and the Moroccan monarch, King Hassan II, about the “New Zamzam” project, in a message published by “Al-Ahram” On August 13, 1980, from Sadat to Beijing, he says: “You may also remember that I offered to provide you with water that could reach Jerusalem passing through the Negev until it was easier for you to build new neighborhoods for settlers in your land, but you misunderstood the idea behind my proposal and said that the national aspirations of your people are not Offered for sale ..Although the removal of illegal settlements should not be commented on any condition, I am ready to go to this extent to solve this problem as another contribution to Egypt for the sake of peace. The hadith did not mention the transfer of water to Jerusalem, but rather to the Negev, and that the transfer of the Nile water to the Negev is a great idea, but we must differentiate between the material aspects and spiritual issues that we have rights in Jerusalem that cannot be violated ”(Zuhairi, 1989).[7]

The case was transferred to the People’s Assembly, and according to Zuhairi, quoting the newspaper “The People”, the mouthpiece of the opposition Labor Party, on November 24, 1978, the Majlis’s session witnessed a violent battle between the government and the opposition, led by Engineer Ibrahim Shukri, the party’s president. Delivering Nile water to Israel, and Kamal Hassan replied to the Minister of Foreign Affairs, that President Sadat raised this issue in his conversation with Beijing in Al-Arish and after receiving 80% of the Sinai lands, and only the issue of Jerusalem and autonomy remained, and put it forward in order to find a just settlement for Jerusalem, and the Philippines is how he is ready to sacrifice for the sake of Jerusalem, and Beijing rejected the idea from the start and the matter ended, and did not respond in the exchanges between them when the negotiations stopped due to the Israeli Knesset’s actions on Jerusalem, and no executive measures were taken on this issue. [8] (Zuhairi, 1989)

Ethiopia’s quarrels continued with Egypt and Sudan, and a long tone did not end with its main theme looking at the water distribution and fair distribution agreements until we got away from all previous agreements and started preparing for new agreements, the first of which was the “Entebbe March 2010” agreement.

1/3 Israeli pre-preparation and the “Entebbe 05/14/2010” agreement

Interests between Ethiopia and Israel were intertwined, as the latter relied heavily on Ethiopia to try to control the waters of the Nile. The “Entebbe 2010” agreement was not the first attempt to influence Egypt’s and Sudan’s water share, and it was not the result of the moment. The river is the product of a series of arrangements in the region and the permanent Israeli shipping, which aims to redistrict the water again, especially after African countries, especially Eritrea and Ethiopia, saw a remarkable development in Israeli support for their economy, which began in 1974 and presented its time to the Israeli Knesset, to begin the fruits of cooperation to flourish and return to the Afro-Israeli relations Once again after the Camp David agreement, Israel’s isolation of Africa will end after a long period, but what are the estimates of Israel’s demand for the Nile waters with the “Camp David” agreement?

The beginning of the thread with which Israel identifies proportions of the Nile water was in an article under the title “Water of Peace” by the Jewish writer “Elisha Klee” published in the newspaper Maariv on September 27, 1978 AD and he presented in his article that if Israel wants to face its coming days in the settlement of Jews, it should Buying water from Egypt via pipes passing under the Suez Canal from Rafah and Al-Arish with a length of 250 km, so that the average transportation is 30 cubic meters per second to accommodate the population increase from the expected displaced, and following the Zionist project and the ruler in the article “Holistic” Israel requests in the Camp David agreement a share representing 1 % Of Egypt’s share of the Nile River, but he refused the request explicitly for fear of Egyptian public pressure, especially since the “Camp David” agreement came in light of an atmosphere of Arab tension that isolated Egypt for a period of its Arab brothers. The alternative is to establish the El-Salam Canal as a first step, and he presented the project of delivering water to Sinai and from there to Jerusalem under the name (ProjectNew Zamzam) to transfer the waters of the Nile to the pilgrims of Al-Aqsa Mosque, where he announced this in his interview with the October magazine on 12/16/1979 AD (Fadl)[9] However, this was met with severe rejection, and the scenes of this matter have already been mentioned in the first part of the article.

No wonder, then, in this Israeli demand for the agreement, especially that the delivery of water to Sinai and from there to the Negev was an ancient dream. The documents revealed, especially the diaries of the founder of the International Zionist “Theodore Herzl” which were published in 1960 according to the fact that he was dreaming of the Nile water reaching Sinai through the concession project which It was presented to the Egyptian government in 1903 by “Lord Cromer” himself on behalf of Herzl, and this project was not only an indication of the plans of the Jews in Sinai, but also the constant. It was made up of military, engineering, and Zionist experts from London, Argentina, Vienna, and South Africa, with the aim of settling European Jews in Sinai and ensuring the arrival of water for them in preparation for the Great Leap “Palestine” (Zuhairi, 1989) [10] .

Israel did not laze for one moment, but continued to support African countries to revive its idea again by controlling the African countries and the ongoing technical and economic support. We saw how it restored its relationship with eight African countries in one year. Israel relied on forming committees from American experts on behalf of Israel to conduct studies. And various projects within Africa, where I submitted projects that totaled 23 water projects in 1992 alone, and on top of these projects is the transportation of water to the Sinai, and then it is easy to transport it to Israel after which it sought to penetrate the “Andujoo” gathering that originated from an Egyptian invitation and an international formation in it (Egypt Sudan, Zaire, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda) with the aim of providing water resources to the Nile Basin countries in response to the successive population increase, noting the absence of Kenya and Ethiopia from the gathering (Khalil, 1998) [11] Where Ethiopia is the most important source of the Nile water, as eleven rivers flow from it all feeding the Nile, and this absence may be the straw that Israel relied on to change the general African mood.

The second topic: the Entebbe Agreement and the path of objections to it

1/1 Pre-Entebbe Idea:

The Nile Basin countries continued to hold various umbrella meetings, including the “Nile of 2000”, whose idea was sown in 1997 until it was formalized on February 22, 1999. The agreement included achieving sustainable economic and social development through equitable utilization of the benefits of the Nile’s resources. The World Bank and United Nations organizations contributed. In developing these agreements, a secretariat for the agreements was established in Entebbe, Uganda, an eastern Nile office in Addis Ababa, and an office for the tropical lakes in Kigali, Rwanda.

In the midst of these African efforts to collect votes for the Nile Basin countries, whose goal is to redistribute the waters of the Nile again under the concept of equitable distribution, whose first and last aim is to contribute to undermining the Sudanese share, which was approved by all previous historical agreements. Water issues are a path far from the Nile Basin Initiative, signed in 1999. It also implies not recognizing the historical and acquired rights of the downstream states Sudan and Egypt under the 1929 and 1995 agreements. Therefore, Egypt announced its official position that it would not sign any agreement unless it explicitly stipulated to guarantee its share of the Nile water. (Fadl, Brief Profile of the Entebbe Agreement, 2017) [12] What added to the dispute between Ethiopia, the leader of the previous initiatives, and Egypt was the issuance of the Nile Basin Atlas as a result of its various initiatives. Sinai was removed from the map of Egypt, as Ethiopia had submitted a complaint in advance to the United Nations regarding the division of the Peace Canal, which I doubt that this complaint would not have been made mainly if Egypt secured its delivery time. Water to Israel, which did not happen as a result of the Egyptian opposition.

2/1: Perceptions of Entebbe 2010:

The Entebbe Agreement was signed on May 14 2010, in which Ethiopia and the conferees presented their desire for a new map of the distribution of river water between countries and claiming that what is now in place is unfair to the rest of the countries and that the only beneficiary of the water are Egypt and Sudan. Entebbe’s perceptions in the papers and files of the meeting included However, what was reached previously from the agreements from 1891 to 1959 all express an era of old agreements that were carried out under colonial influence and this assumption is not currently applied to the end of that period and that the countries have become sovereign and independent from before.

The rules of international law and the theory of emergency conditions give the right to signatories to pre-existing agreements to withdraw from the agreements that they signed as long as an emergency event prevents implementation.

Accordingly, the path of the Sudanese objections to Entebbe 2010 started from the first day to sign the agreement, according to what BBC Arabic published in its meeting with the Egyptian Minister of Irrigation. He said, “Mohamed Nasr Allam” said (Egypt will take all necessary measures to assure all international organizations that this agreement is against International law is not binding on Egypt and represents an infringement on its water rights) (Arab, 2010) [13] and indicated that Egypt will resort to international law to preserve its rights, adding that in practice “there is no risk to“ Egypt’s share or its uses ”of the waters of the Nile Because that is “practically maintained and at the level of state agreements. Then followed by Egyptian efforts, which included essential points in the response, the most important of which are:

* The principle of respecting the previous agreements, which allocated fixed water quotas to Egypt and Sudan, and that there is no way to redistribute again, especially as there is a series of agreements signed before throughout the course of the history of the conflict, and they were:
The 1891 protocol between Britain and Italy, which obliges Italy not to establish any works or dams on the Atbara River, which impedes the flow of the Nile River in order to preserve the rights of the downstream countries.
The 1902 agreement between Britain and the Great Empire of Ethiopia not to establish any works or dams on the Blue Nile prevent the flow of the river
Owen River Agreement in Uganda in 1953 regarding Egypt’s participation in building the Uganda Dam to generate electricity and not harm Egypt’s share of the Nile
The 1959 agreement for the full use of the Nile water between Egypt and Sudan in Cairo, to ensure maximum benefit from the Nile, to control and increase its revenue, and to exploit the water resulting from the construction of the High Dam in Aswan and the Rusaires reservoir in Sudan .. According to this agreement, Egypt will prove the share of Egypt 55.5 km3 The share of Sudan is 18.5 km3.
* Follow the rule of prior notification because all working rules followed in international law, such as cases of international rivers of riparian states, that the interested state commit to prior notification and commitment not to harm the shares of other activists, and that the notification must precede the action and planning originally
* General consensus, or something similar to unanimity, which was not achieved by the agreement due to the lack of consent of Sudan and Egypt, Burundi was late to sign, and the agreements in this regard must be subject to general consensus, and that there are countries that have not signed and therefore this agreement is dropped.
* The rules of equitable utilization of watercourses establish the right of Egypt based on:
Helsinki base in 1966, which observed basic criteria for the equitable utilization of the Nile water and based on factors of relative weight in terms of distribution, soil nature, geographical, geological, and social factors, climate, economy, and population preparation
– The United Nations Convention on the Distribution of International Rivers between the Riparian State in 1997, which has been available for signature for states for a period of 3 years at the United Nations and summarized its various articles on two basic principles.
Not to cause harm to riparian countries
Prior notification to other countries of the actions intended to work on international rivers within the region in which they pass.
2/3 The legality of the Masroudani objection to the Entebbe Agreement:

The foundations of the call for Entebbe 2010, in which the assembled countries raised the idea of ​​redistricting the waters of the Nile, were considered legally republished by what they had originally established the agreement with:

The base of international heritage:

The principle of international inheritance of treaties, as the Vienna Convention emphasized 23/8/1978 to succeed states in treaties, which was approved by the principle of international heritage of treaties, and that includes asserting the legitimacy of previous Nile water agreements, which the source countries claim are invalid and take as a measure to insist on changing them.

What was approved by the Organization of African Unity, of which Ethiopia is a part, in 1963 AD and 1964 AD and confirmed it despite its rejection of colonial divisions. The continent, its unity and cohesion, and then the Organization of African Unity recognized these divisions and borders between countries, so it is first of all to respect the agreements reached regarding the rivers and the relations of the riparian countries.

Theory of emergency conditions:

Ethiopia and the Entebbe 2010 contractors have taken the theory of emergency conditions, according to which the signatory states have the right to withdraw from the agreement as a result of the emergency conditions. In fact, international law actually recognizes that the fundamental change in the conditions that prompted the contracting parties to take it and accept some conditions gives the right to both parties Contracting retreat provided that a result of a fundamental change in the remaining obligations, so the right to demand the termination of the treaty or the suspension of its implementation is entitled, and this is not available in the Ethiopian case at all or in the countries of origin, but on the contrary, Egypt is the owner of the right and benefit from this rule and the international theory by virtue of a fundamental change in the number of its population and its growth Originally, as Egypt’s share was approved by the Tripartite International Committee from America, Britain and India in 1928, when Egypt’s share was set at 58 billion cubic meters, and this is not sufficient now in light of the approximate population of 110 million. Therefore, a fundamental change has occurred in these agreements that makes Egypt the inherent right to Change their share and raiseThe value of that share is according to the theory of emergency conditions and the fundamental change in the demographics, whereby the Nile represents about 97% of water and development, unlike all the riparian states, and with this we find a community of Entebbe who adheres to a theory that is the right of Egypt to want to adhere to.

The movement of the Nile Basin countries towards Egypt and Sudan lies behind it a Zionist move with distinction in terms of planning, polarization and stirring unrest in the region. Perhaps the Nile file may serve it in liquidating the entire Palestinian issue by raising the dispute between the Nile Basin countries in a way that guarantees African penetration.

The third topic: The Renaissance Dam and its techniques and the effect of the Declaration of Principles on changing the equation of conflict

After mobilizing psychological and American-Israeli dependence, Ethiopia was able to be a source of concern in the Nile Basin and a strong supporter to undermine the share of Egypt and Sudan from its water. After that, for a Renaissance Dam, its planned capacity changed from 11.4 billion cubic meters suddenly to 74 billion 3 and the construction of the last three stopped until the completion of the Renaissance Dam, which I confirm that Ethiopia will not hesitate to complete it after the experience of the Renaissance Dam, which passes with complete smoothness and a solid agreement.

1/3 Is the Al-Nahda Dam a damaging mosque in the city?

A question that combines history and politics. The “Dirar” mosque in Madinah is a mosque founded by the hypocrites, and its goal was to separate the believers. He cited this position and not sympathy for him. Did Ethiopia ever need this dam?

The arguments of Ethiopia in the fairness of the water distribution in it are considered because it has 24 river basins, the annual rainfall amounts to 950 billion 3 of which 450 billion 3 represent in the Nile Basin alone within the Ethiopian lands and that the constant in the nature of the climate and the Ethiopian plains confirms that Ethiopia does not need this dam at all if it needs Ethiopia to generate electricity, for example, it would have been sufficient to generate it from solar energy cells, as the nature of the climate there is always sunny as an alternative because the combined consumption of Ethiopia does not exceed 2000 megawatts and that Kenya consumes 400 megawatts from Ethiopia and that the electricity transmission network from Ethiopia to Sudan has a carrying capacity that represents 100 megawatts at the latest And that if Ethiopia tries to sell the electricity generated from the dam, it needs a transportation network estimated at an additional billion dollars. Dr. Asfaw Benny, a professor of mechanical engineering at the University of San Diego in the United States, revealed through the Qada website that the Renaissance Dam cannot produce 6000 MW because it needs an average flow rateIt is 4700 m3 / second while the average flow of the Blue Nile is 2350 m3 / second (seventh, 2020)[14] . In the technical context, after discovering a defect in the concrete base, which has eroded, there are pictures that confirm that Ethiopia worked to treat it during the drought. The height of the dam has been reduced from 175 m to 155 meters from the concrete structure, and the number of working turbines has been reduced from 16 turbines to 11 only to reduce the productivity of electrical energy From 6450 to 4125 MW, this confirms that all technical studies of the dam have begun to change upon implementation, and promises to the previous question: Did Ethiopia need the dam ?? Also, Ethiopia could have made it a seasonal dam that deals with floods, such as the Raisid Dam

3/2 The Committee of Experts is fair to Egypt and Sudan:

After a series of political consultations and deliberations starting from 2010 until 2012 and the efforts made in that, a committee of international experts was approved to start its work in May 2012 with a total of ten experts from (Germany, South Africa, France, England, in addition to 6 from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia by 2 for each country ) To produce 4 visits to the dam and 6 meetings for the technical study, and before that four meetings for the preliminary studies of the file. The technical report was issued at the end of May 2013 in 48 pages. It included an evaluation of all studies submitted by Ethiopia and reached 153 studies, including “103 drawings” and “ 7 maps ”and“ 43 studies ”

The report concluded that

All studies submitted by Ethiopia are not relevant and they are old and do not estimate the effects of the dam, especially the environment and social areas.
The report emphasized Ethiopia’s violation of the rules of international law regulating the mechanism of dealing with international rivers, such as the Blue River, in terms of non-prior notification and its non-recognition of old agreements, especially the Egypt and Sudan agreement signed in 1959.
Most of the studies submitted by Ethiopia have noticeable technical deficiencies and shame and they do not rise to the technical level of the dam project, which carries these hopes and is reliable in this way and that huge in implementation
The report does not contain the negative effects resulting in the case of God forbid, the collapse of the dam, which must include before starting planning for the project originally as its main draft under the name of the legal, social and technical effects of the dam.
The filling period of the entire dam of 74 billion cubic meters represents a negative impact on Egypt if it coincides with the drought period, which hinders the work of the high dam as a product of Egyptian electricity other than the accompanying water deficit.
The report mentioned other details about the geological and environmental impacts and the many dangers. It is possible to refer to the newspaper Al-Youm Al-Sabah on April 27, 2014 under the title (We publish the full report of the Committee of Experts on “Renaissance Dam)” (the seventh day) [15] .
After this equitable technical report for the interests of Egypt and Sudan, and based on it, the Egyptian diplomatic position has become, rather, the Egyptian military position in dealing with the dam has become strong, especially since all countries and institutions of the World Bank wishing to finance and lend to the dam have completely stopped funding in appreciation of the report and anticipated a strong Egyptian position that may be A deterrent response in time. Where the President of Egypt announced at the time “Mohamed Morsi” on 10/6/2013, that is only ten days after the report, the man declared openly with a mass public address in which he said (if a drop of the Nile is reduced, then our alternative blood), but after these strong words based on a strong and supported position Technically and internationally, in recognition of the Egyptian right to its share through the previous law and artistic opinion, what happened to Egypt’s shift from a position of strength to begging Ethiopian consent?

Some attribute that the reason for this is due to Ethiopia exploiting the period of the internal disintegration of the Egyptian meat, due to the bloody events that occurred in Egypt in the early second half of 2013, and replacing the elected government with a formal one to beautify the form of military administration intervention and scene management by exploiting the anger of some and the distinction between In Egypt, internally, opinions about these events varied between a supporter of what happened and between exhibitions and what was published by the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram is part of this in its issue issued on 4-7-2013 under the title (Leaders in “Al-Wasat”: Al-Sisi’s statement is a coup with the blessing of Al-Azhar and the Church and leads to a transitional phase Cloudy landmarks) It is known that the Wasat Party is an Egyptian political party Kimin is classified as an Islamic reference and was not a day calculated by the ruling party in Egypt. This was a description of the state of societal discord in the aftermath of events in 2013. As for the external, the African Peace and Security Council considered that what happened in Egypt is a change of government in an unconstitutional manner, and on the basis of that he commented The Peace and Security Council of the African Union on Friday (July 5, 2013) Egypt’s membership in the 54-nation bloc, due to “unconstitutional power grabs” i.e. recognition by the Union that it is a military coup, (Arab, African Peace and Security Council suspends membership Egypt, 2013) [16] After Egypt went through this crisis, Egyptian diplomatic stances began to choose the direction of “anxiety, expressions, condemnation and condemnation.” BBC Arabic website published on July 20, 2013, Egypt expresses “deep concern” regarding a water crisis The Nile with Ethiopia (Arab B., 2013) [17] .

On the contrary, the Ethiopian side was quick to take executive positions on the ground that bear the seriousness and foreshadow a more dangerous trend. One of the first things that Ethiopia embarked on was popular mobilization. For the Ethiopians, the project would be a national project, not just investments for foreign companies, and this is what the Ethiopian parliament blessed

And according to what was published by the BBC Arabic website on the position of the Ethiopian Parliament, the new agreement, known as the “Framework Cooperation Agreement”, allows the countries of origin to implement irrigation and hydroelectric projects without obtaining Egypt’s approval first.
“The parliament has approved a law that makes the agreement a domestic law,” said Ethiopian government spokesperson Shimiles Kamal. (Arabi P., Ethiopian parliament approves a controversial agreement on the Nile, 2013) [18]
It is noticeable that the dates and speed of the Ethiopian achievement in dealing with events in Egypt and the exploitation of the suspension of Egypt’s membership in the African Union and the approval of the Ethiopian parliament for the legitimacy of the framework cooperation, as if the steps agreed in advance drawn by skilled political calligrapher.
3/3 What was confirmed by the experts’ opinion was lost in the Declaration of Principles

The ten international experts committee was formed, whose terms of reference were agreed upon after the meeting of water ministers from the three countries Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on November 29, 2011. The committee’s opinion was considered an important aspect in the diplomatic, legal and technical conflict of the Renaissance Dam. Its fruits have added strength to the position of Egypt and Sudan to their strength, as the report has demonstrated the technical weakness of the Ethiopian side, and the report may show poor intentions on the Ethiopian side and its lack of technical and diplomatic readiness because of the refutation of the report for Ethiopian studies.

Through the Agreement of Principles, which was announced in Khartoum in 2015 in the presence of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, and with which the right of Egypt and Sudan was explicitly wasted, as the terms of the agreement stipulated several risks

As it is considered a reversal of all previous agreements and it came on a plate of gold for Ethiopia or rather for Israel, which the latter sought to control the Nile River and made many efforts over the years to reach complete control of the Blue Nile so that it could then negotiate its waters through Ethiopia and its new dam However you like. For the agreement to revive new hope for Israel, which it has always dreamed of for many years, and with this agreement, the Egyptian position has weakened and Egypt’s water right was lost after it was strong, according to the fair and fair report of the International Committee.

But what are the serious reasons for this agreement?

According to Dr. Nader Nour El-Din, professor of water at the Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, to Al Arabiya Net, that signing the document means agreeing to Ethiopia to officially build the Renaissance Dam as of next Monday, March 30, and the return of foreign funding that had been stopped after the success of the Egyptian diplomacy in urging Participating countries to stop it, including China, Korea, the World Bank and Italy.
He said that the dam in this case will be officially and legitimately carried out by consensus and consent between the countries of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, and therefore the international funding for the dam, which is 5.5 billion dollars from the National Bank of China and one billion dollars from Italy and similar from South Korea, will be returned in addition to the World Bank’s approval to offer Ethiopian bonds for financing with the guarantee of the dam. After that, the pace of its construction and completion will accelerate completely before the final non-binding report of the consultant office and the international expert is issued 15 months after the signing of the agreement, indicating that Egypt’s approval of the Renaissance Dam implies its approval of a series of five other dams in Ethiopia. (Arabic, 2015) [19]

He said that Ethiopia imposed the word “respected” instead of the word “binding” on the report of the dam’s consultative office, meaning that Egypt and Sudan have no right to object to the report, and Ethiopia has the right to continue building the dam without paying attention to any objections. A
frightening effect.
He said that the impact of the dam will be frightening and disastrous for Egypt, which will not be able to achieve any agricultural development and will lose between 3 to 5 million acres, while reclamation projects will stop in the Sinai, Toshka and the northwest coast, especially since Ethiopia and after the establishment of the other five dams will hold more than 250 billion cubic meters behind its five dams.

The indications for wasting the agreement, “declaring principles” for the Egyptian and Sudanese right to the waters of the Nile, are as follows:

The commitment of the signatory states to the weakest form of binding is the unilateral will, which enables Ethiopia to disavow any clause in the agreement that may present an obstacle to it.
The word “cooperation and goodwill” appeared in the agreement extensively, and this does not have practical evidence in the agreement, especially in the principle of exchanging information and data, which confirmed that Ethiopia was manipulating information and data and that it was misleading to all international committees, and this is with the testimony of international experts, so how is goodwill assumed in an agreement affecting water security there Clear indications of misinformation, according to the findings of experts in their previous reports.
The principle of causing harm, as the agreement came to be significant harm, and the declaration did not differentiate between the types of damage and its assessment and the mechanism of its occurrence, even in dealing with the damage. The declaration tended to be discussed in mitigating or eliminating the damage and did not specify the mechanisms that required that. The damage in the agreement came in a general form and was not defined to the damage nor specific. Because of its type and size, and because Ethiopia itself has a precedent with Lake Turkana in Kenya, the G3 Dam, which was built in 2015, and as a result, the lake’s water level decreased to displace the fishermen, and the researcher at Human Rights Watch said, “Flex Horn”, “Ethiopia is in a hurry.” To develop its resources so that people along the water line are completely marginalized, excluded from the equation. ” So how can we not appreciate the damages of the dam and assume good will (News, 2017) [20]
The principle of regional integration and sustainability We note that energy has not been defined in addition to any “electric energy” and this opens a path for any business related to energy of all kinds as well as the principle of regional integration and most of the participants in investments have already come from outside the region
The principle of fair and appropriate use and this principle completely abolishes the Sudanese rights previously approved by all agreements. This principle came with great cunning since it did not refer to any water entitlement for the two downstream countries.
Egypt’s approval of the eighth item assessing Ethiopia’s efforts in implementation and following the recommendations of the International Committee of Experts, meaning that Egypt and Sudan confirm that Ethiopia follows the recommendations of the International Committee, and that Ethiopia is implementing the instructions, and this is the most dangerous item that exists, whereas the Ethiopian Minister of Irrigation, Water and Electricity, “Motoma Makasa”, said a text in a newspaper (The political microscope on February 19 2016) “The studies that the consulting firms will conduct on the Renaissance Dam are not binding on his country.”
The principle of the safety of the dam is one of the most dangerous provisions of the declaration for its approval, a principle of goodwill in implementing the recommendations of the international technical committees and the word “goodwill” with implementation in the recommendations has no place of expression originally because it will be an excuse for Ethiopia to violate the recommendations and when the arbitration will be the response that we implemented in good faith according to the declaration of principles did not The announcement mentions the safety factor for the project as a whole and did not refer to alternative plans in case of collapse, God forbid, and what are the compensation for the affected countries.
The principle of the peaceful settlement of disputes The Declaration endorsed cooperation in the settlement of the dispute through consensus, consultation and good intentions, and did not refer to mechanisms for a solution, as I refer in the event of the dispute the matter again to the heads of the three countries without reference to the course of international arbitration
Results :

After this review of the study’s subjects, it is clear from them several results:
The old Israeli intervention, its desire to control the Nile and its constant support for the Ethiopian file to create the expected division in the Nile Basin countries
The assumptions and attempts made by the Entebbe Agreement to disavow previous agreements.
The good diplomatic management of Egypt during the period of objection to Entebbe and the extent of the attendance of the Egyptian diploma
Full fairness from the Committee of International Experts and the extent of impartiality in dealing with the file
Egypt and Sudan have the power to retaliate after the Committee of Experts, which announced on May 31, 2013 and the Egyptian President, Mohamed Morsi, waving power at the time.
The Egyptian position flabbed after the events in July 2013
Ethiopia’s exploitation of the problems inside Egypt and taking strong positions and executive steps on the ground
Following his declaration of principles in Khartoum 2015 and his administration’s rights to Egyptian-Sudanese rights
The seduction of the Egyptian and Sudanese peoples in the Declaration of Principles agreement, and it was Ethiopia’s main call to strengthen its position, violating all the international rights and agreements signed previously.
Recommendations:

The necessity of withdrawing immediately from the agreement to declare the principles by virtue of the emergency circumstance, especially as there are indications in the Ethiopian evasion from the agreements and in violation of even the declaration of principles and change of the dam action plan, which causes a disaster for the downstream country
Monitoring the infrastructure of the dam through the photos taken and making a comprehensive file presented in a technical manner to the Security Council, and that the discussions of the committees be done technically, not only diplomatically.
Work to stop filling so that a catastrophic catastrophe does not occur and the threat to destroy the dam before filling is complete due to its seriousness and Ethiopia’s violation of the agreements and recommendations of the committees
The official address of the companies investing in the project about the severity of the dam on the Egyptian and Sudanese side
The necessity of using the technical studies of the international committees to stop filling, especially since the safety factor is very weak.
Demanding an urgent meeting of the Arab League and submitting reports of violations and gravity of the dam to take a comprehensive collective position.
Participation in the power generation project by other companies, away from the dam turbines and the threat of selling at lower prices than the dam’s electricity.
Contributing to the establishment of development projects within the Nile Basin countries, and speeding up this, may be a reason to stop filling
The decisive response to the Ethiopian bragging in responses and statements, such as the statement of the Ethiopian Foreign Minister (we had a river and it became a lake).
The necessity of drawing a precautionary plan in the event of drought and the disruption of the High Dam turbines.
Adoption of an emergency evacuation plan in case God is unable to collapse the dam after complete filling.
Conclusion:

Perhaps history will be unable to make his observations on these semi-decisive years in the history of the conflict. Since this date, the situation has changed, so Ethiopia’s allegations are not an illusion, but a fact, and it has taken the lead in negotiating, strength and exerting pressure, while Egypt has become in the defense position and to complete the papers that the Declaration of Principles dispersed in March 2015 ”, and therefore a strong conclusion emerges that the Israeli hand provided the Ethiopian negotiator with all the cards of the game and that there was a deception of the Egyptian and Sudanese peoples that had occurred and that the Jewish agenda was present in the file of the dam from the first paper in it to its conclusion, and this agreement will be witness to an era that Ethiopia has the helm of water in My downstream country and that God Almighty cannot in the event of the dam collapse will be a resounding collapse, especially since its foundation was originally a concrete dam not a cumulative dam like the high dam and doubtful of the hardness of its material and that the safety factor in it represents 1.5 of 9 and it is the weakest safety factor for a project of this size.

Reference

1- (Ibrahim Muhammad Al-Anani, Settlement of Disputes Using International Rivers, Nile River Model, Article 11, No. 39, p. 33, State Information Service, Cairo, 2013.

2- (Trigi Taft, The Nile in the British Age, p. 7, The National Center for Translation, Cairo, 2019)

3- (Mona Hussein Obaid, Israeli Policy towards the Nile Basin Countries, Egypt and Sudan as a Model, Academic Academic Journals, Iraq, p. 49)

4- (The World Zionist Organization, Palestinian Encyclopedia, 10/28/2015)

5- (Settlement of Zionist projects outside Palestine, Palestinian Encyclopedia, 8/13/2013)

6- (Mona Hussein Obaid, Israeli Policy towards the Nile Basin Countries, Egypt and Sudan as a Model, Academic Academic Journals, Iraq, p. 51)

7- (Kamal Zuhair, The Nile in Danger, Al-Ahali Newspaper Library, Cairo, 1989, p. 15)

8) Kamal Zuhair, The Nile in Danger, Al-Ahali Newspaper Library, Cairo, 1989, p. 17)

9) Omar Fadlallah, Water War on the banks of the Nile, A Dream of Israel Happens, p. 23, Dar Nahdat Misr, Cairo, 2013.

10) Kamal Zuhair, The Nile in Danger, Al-Ahali Newspaper Library, Cairo, 1989, p. 31)

11) Mahmoud Khalil, The Water Crisis in the Middle East, p. 32, The Academic Library, Cairo, 1998

12) Fadl, A brief summary of the Entebbe Agreement, 2017)

13) BBC Editor, Entebbe Agreement Against International Law, Not Binding to Egypt, BBC Arabic, 2010

14) (The site of the seventh day, a Sudanese researcher reveals: providing Khartoum with cheap electricity from the Ethiopian Dam, “Lie 23/6/2020)

15) Site of the seventh day, we publish the full report of the Committee of Experts on the “Renaissance Dam” 4/27/2014)

[1] (BBC Arabic website, African Peace and Security Council suspends Egypt membership, 7/13/2013) 16)
17) BBC Arabic, Egypt expresses “deep concern” over the Nile water crisis with Ethiopia, 7/20/2013

18) BBC Arabic., The Ethiopian Parliament approves a controversial agreement on the Nile, 7/13/2013)

19) Al Arabia Net, detailing the principles of the Khartoum Document and the Renaissance Dam Plan, Al Arabiya Net website, 3/23/2015

20) (Sky News Arabia, an Ethiopian dam that “partially dries up” a lake … and raises criticism, 2/14/2017)

SAKHRI Mohamed

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