European studiesPolitical studies

What are the possible repercussions of the resignation of the Italian Prime Minister?


This month, Italy, the third largest economy in the European Union and the euro area, witnessed great political chaos, which began with the announcement by Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who has held office since February of 2021, his intention to submit his resignation on July 14, after boycotting The Five Star Movement, one of the most important partners in the government coalition, received an important vote in the Senate. The resignation was rejected by Italian President Sergio Mattarella, while prominent parties and leaders in Italian society demanded that he stick to his position and the sensitivity of the timing in which he intends to do so.

Despite his conviction of these pleas, he returned and submitted his official resignation, on July 21, to Italian President Sergio Mattarella at the Quirinal Presidential Palace in Rome; This prompted the Italian president to dissolve Parliament in both the Houses of Representatives and the Senate at a later time of the same day, in a step that became inevitable after the decision of the resignation of the Prime Minister and his government, in addition to the announcement of early parliamentary elections on the twenty-fifth of next September.

crisis context

The absence of support and support for former Italian Prime Minister “Draghi” from the parties participating in the coalition, namely: the center-right Forza Italia party, the League and the populist Five Star Movement, came in the form of a refusal to vote on the confidence vote that Draghi submitted on July 20, despite He is popular with many inside and outside the country, and he is seen as an important European voice in the face of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his war in Ukraine. This rejection and lack of support may be due to a number of political and economic factors, which we review as follows:

1- The decline in the ability to manage the energy crisis: in the context of the economic and geopolitical crisis that Europe is currently witnessing, and the expectations that Italy will witness an energy crisis that may reach its climax this winter in light of the growing Russian pressure on the gas card on the European Union countries that support Ukraine, especially Italy ; The main parties in the coalition government saw that Draghi had failed on that issue.  

The repercussions of the Russian war in Ukraine led to a new state of emergency after the epidemic, and imposed on “Draghi” the need to find solutions to it, despite his attempts until the last moment to deal with that file – which was evident from his visit to Algiers on July 18, to search in a manner Urgent search for alternative energy sources for Russian gas – this did not change the position of the opposition parties, perhaps due to the lack of confidence of those parties in the ability of “Draghi” to manage this important economic file.

2- Fear of the cost of Draghi’s broad support for Ukraine: Despite Draghi’s heavy focus on tax cuts and pro-business rhetoric, the economic malaise in Italy has become endemic, especially with the country’s borrowing costs rising sharply. The crisis has been further complicated by the repercussions of the Russian war in Ukraine, especially with Draghi’s huge support for Ukraine at Russia’s expense, and a firm belief was generated inside Italy, that what Italy is about is the result of pumping huge funds to Ukraine despite Italy’s need for it, and the policies of This “Draghi” has increased Russian pressure against Italy. 

3- The disparities regarding economic policies and immigrants: The rise in public debt has slowed economic growth in Italy over the past two decades, thus impeding efforts to revive the country’s wealth, in addition to high unemployment rates. These economic pressures began to generate a conviction among the right-wing parties participating in the coalition, whose ideas slowly infiltrated ordinary citizens, to reject immigrants as the path to national salvation, policies that Draghi refuses to support.

4- Controversies over new judicial reforms: The controversial judicial reform during Draghi’s presidency, which aims to reduce the length of trials by 25% over five years in criminal cases and by 40% in civil cases, is also likely to be one of the The motives that led those parties to reject the vote of confidence in the government; Critics argue that these reforms risk allowing thousands of criminals to escape justice; By dropping cases when the appeal process is prolonged.

Possible repercussions

Draghi’s resignation will have a number of potential repercussions on the Italian interior and abroad, which can be addressed as follows:

1- Important economic programs are disrupted for the Italian citizen: With Draghi resigning and his government dissolved, Italy will have to wait for elections in order to approve any economic reforms and pass its budget for 2023; Which will certainly affect ordinary citizens; Because without an active government, Italy’s access to more than 200 billion euros from the EU’s Post-Pandemic Recovery Fund until 2026, which is required to ensure its continued flow, is required to pass a series of additional reforms, such as steps to boost competition in markets for products and services.

Also, among the measures that could be affected by the government crisis in Italy before the election date, is the disruption of a new stimulus package worth 10 billion euros, which the Italian Treasury was working on with the aim of helping families and companies cope with rising energy costs.

2-  The possibility of a decline in Italian support for Ukraine : Mario Draghi is a central figure in the West’s response to the Russian war in Ukraine; He was one of the first European leaders to suggest sanctions against Russia, including targeting the Russian oligarchs to increase pressure on Russia. In June, Draghi met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv; To confirm his support for Ukraine, alongside German Chancellor Olaf Schulz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis.

Hence, Draghi’s resignation may mean a decline in the Italian position on the war in Ukraine; In Draghi’s last speech before his resignation, the Senate warned that the turmoil in Italian politics would create an opportunity for Russia to change Italy’s position on Ukraine; It is possible that Rome’s attitude towards Moscow will change after the elections; With Putin sympathizers vying for power.

3- Damage to EU interests at a crucial time: Draghi’s resignation comes at a time when Europe faces some of its biggest challenges in years. It is struggling with the threat of recession after the annual inflation rate in the European Union jumped to 9.6% last June, while it reached 8.6% in the 19-nation eurozone. Fears are growing that right-wing factions may gain increasing support at the polls, especially with those parties questioning the feasibility of the European Union; This raises questions about the cohesion of the European bloc at an important juncture. Although some parties in the coalition have taken a softer stance on the European Union, the Five Star Movement, for example, is still one of the bloc’s main skeptics and supporters.

4- Possible tension in the debt markets: Italy is facing a state of unprecedented political uncertainty after Draghi signed his resignation on July 21; This has raised debt markets’ concerns about Italy’s ability to meet its obligations in light of the current political and economic crisis, which makes Italy risk losing billions of euros in EU funds for post-Covid recovery, if the implementation of major structural reforms is delayed.

5- The deepening economic and social crisis in Italy: the decision to resign is likely to exacerbate social ills with rampant inflation, budget delays and the threat of EU funds for post-pandemic recovery, and push nervous markets into a state of collapse; Coinciding with the collapse of the national unity government, the European Central Bank prepared to introduce its first interest rate increase in 11 years. It is a step, although its main purpose is to contain inflation, reduce liquidity and raise borrowing costs, but this may increase the burdens on Italy, which is already heavily indebted.

In this atmosphere, investors’ fears increase in light of the political and economic uncertainty; After investors’ demand to keep Italian bonds, to become the highest rated in Germany, rose to nearly 245 basis points on Thursday, July 21, they fell again, in an indication of the amount of tension in the Italian stock market and the extent to which it is affected by the current political situation.

Right chances

The Yemeni, left, and center parties are competing in the upcoming parliamentary elections to be held on the twenty-fifth of next September, and there remain favorable opportunities for the extremist right’s forces to enhance their political influence. Recent polls have shown that a bloc of conservative parties, led by the far-right Brothers of Italy, is likely to win a clear majority in the upcoming elections. According to these surveys, the chances of the right-wing coalition led by “Brothers of Italy” leader Georgia Meloni, the center-right Forza Italia and the populist League, to form a right-wing government increase, with the probability of winning the early elections increasing at a significant rate, if the three parties manage to achieve compatibility with each other.

Polls indicate that the “Italy Brothers” party comes at the forefront of the right-wing parties with 24% of the votes, thus making the party in a strong position and close to heading the next Italian government, but the rest of the Yemeni parties did not exceed 10%. So, if the right wins the next elections, two scenarios are feasible: either a coalition agreement is reached within weeks, or that extends for a longer period.

Despite these indicators, the leftist forces may seek to undermine the opportunities of the right, especially that the results of opinion polls are not stable and may witness a significant change in the coming period, which makes the result of the upcoming parliamentary elections completely different from what is expected; There is still sufficient time before the elections, when the form and nature of alliances and the content of electoral platforms may change; The Left Democratic Party may have to ally itself with the Five Star Party; In order to strike the right-wing bloc, especially that the Democratic Party, according to an opinion poll conducted by the SWG Institute, on July 18, got 22%, a rate close to what the “Italy Brothers” got, while the Five Star Movement won about 11%.

All in all, the political crisis is not foreign to Italy. Its next government will be the seventieth government since World War II. However, the political map at the present time, in light of the tensions and economic and geopolitical crises, makes events move at a rapid pace, which imposes on the shoulders of the next government many challenges that require dealing flexibly and faster than usual. To avoid the recurrence of such disagreements and political chaos in a short time.


key words:

The political crisis in Italy

SAKHRI Mohamed

I hold a bachelor's degree in political science and international relations as well as a Master's degree in international security studies, alongside a passion for web development. During my studies, I gained a strong understanding of key political concepts, theories in international relations, security and strategic studies, as well as the tools and research methods used in these fields.

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