American StudiesPolitical studies

Will the FBI prevent Trump from running for the 2024 elections?


After FBI investigators raided the home of former President Donald Trump at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, against the backdrop of investigations conducted by the US Department of Justice on suspicion of violations of the anti-espionage law, and the retention of sensitive defense documents; Legal experts worked hard to consider the repercussions of this on the chances of “Trump” running for a second presidential term in the upcoming presidential elections in November 2024. The matter also caused a wide political debate in American circles between two groups, the first of whom sees the need to support the former president politically in order to run in the upcoming presidential elections. Especially in light of the politicization of the inspection process and criminal investigations and dealing with them based on conspiracy theory, while the second sees the need to involve another Republican candidate.

Trump’s Chances Diminished

Supporters of the opinion that the chances of the former US president declining to run for the upcoming presidential elections are based on a number of arguments that can be found in detail in the following points:

1- Accusations of Violation of US Law : Federal law of 1978 makes it a crime for anyone with government records or documents to knowingly and unlawfully conceal, remove, distort, erase, forge or destroy such documents. If convicted, he can be fined or sentenced to up to three years in prison. If he holds a federal office, he loses it, and he is barred from holding any office in the US government. Accordingly, the conviction of “Trump” of violating the law by removing, concealing or destroying government documents, means that he will not be eligible to take office again, and therefore he cannot run for the next presidential election.

2- Trump’s potential prosecution:  The FBI raid and investigation of Trump’s home for destroying sensitive records, obstructing justice, and violating the Espionage Act; A major escalation increases the chances of a political battle erupting if he is brought to trial, a battle that is likely to undermine his chances of running for the presidential race in 2024, especially as it exacerbates legal pressures on him and on other fronts that are being investigated, including his role in The events of the storming of Congress on January 6, 2021.

3- The possibility of the Republican Party heading for an alternative candidacy:  In an opposite direction to the conspiracy theory promoted by “Trump” and a number of his supporters to gain the sympathy and support of his supporters and obtain more gains in the upcoming elections on the one hand, and in parallel with a number of prominent opinion polls that indicated a decline On the other hand, the popular support for “Trump” and the unwillingness of citizens to run for him again; The Republican Party may push for a new presidential candidate, especially with some Republican voices rejecting allegations of fraud in the past presidential elections, and seeing that “Trump” has harmed American democracy. In this context, some believe that the criminal investigations against Trump portend his possible downfall. Which necessarily means opening the way for other candidates.

4- Being prosecuted in multiple cases : A year and a half after leaving the White House, Trump faces a number of legal challenges; In the foreground are two criminal investigations; The first relates to  his  role in changing the results of the past presidential elections, and the  second relates to  tax evasion and other financial charges. The fate of the investigations into the congressional storming on January 6, 2021 cannot be overlooked. Accordingly, some argue that the outcome of these political and criminal investigations may undermine Trump’s political future in light of the unknown fate of their fate and the difficulty of predicting their results.

Candidacy

Supporters of the opinion that “Trump” can run in the upcoming presidential elections are based on a number of counter-arguments, the most prominent of which can be identified through the following points:

1- The possibility of obtaining broad Republican support : The search of Trump’s home and the charges against him caused widespread political tension expressed by a number of members of the Republican Party, which may cast a shadow over their potential support for his candidacy in the upcoming elections, especially since he was already considering Announcing his intent to run for the 2024 presidential election in the next few months, specifically before the mid-term congressional elections in November 2022.

2- Absence of legal impediments:  It is not possible to be certain that Trump will be prevented from running in the upcoming elections, even if he is found guilty of destroying official documents. A number of legal experts confirmed that the aforementioned law is not related to running for the presidency or not, but rather the US Constitution, which limits the requirements for candidacy to criteria related to age, nationality and residence, and does not address the issue of criminal conviction as a possible reason preventing candidacy. It cannot be certain that government prosecutors will ultimately indict Trump; There is no doubt that his conviction will open the door to differences of opinion among the jurists, although it is unlikely to impede his possible return to the White House.

3- The presence of legal precedents for American presidents:  Former President George W. Bush was previously convicted of driving under the influence, but eventually took over the presidency, as the previous law was scrutinized in 2015 after Hillary Clinton used a private servant. For e-mail in government work during her tenure as the US State Department, this was accompanied by a similar legal debate between various legal jurists, even if “Clinton” ran in the presidential race in the end, especially since the US Constitution determines the criteria for eligibility to run for the presidency, and the rulings of the Supreme Court indicate that That Congress can’t change it. The constitution allows Congress to remove some people from office, including the president, without the criminal law having that power.

A new legal crisis

Finally, Trump is facing a new judicial crisis as the Republicans and Democrats prepare for the congressional midterm elections and the upcoming presidential elections. In light of the ambiguity of the results of possible criminal investigations, it is difficult to determine the chances of “Trump” running for the presidency, although some experts indicated that his indictment and possible conviction may prompt prosecutors to ask the Supreme Court (which is dominated by conservatives) to consider the issue of the former president’s eligibility to run for the upcoming elections from the United States. lack thereof.


Interregional Source for Strategic Analytics

SAKHRI Mohamed

I hold a bachelor's degree in political science and international relations as well as a Master's degree in international security studies, alongside a passion for web development. During my studies, I gained a strong understanding of key political concepts, theories in international relations, security and strategic studies, as well as the tools and research methods used in these fields.

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