President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with members of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) on July 28th in Rize, northern Turkey, to discuss Turkey’s economic, military, and political situation. During the meeting, he made statements regarding the Palestinian issue, including a threat of Turkish military intervention against Israel in its war with Gaza, similar to Turkey’s past actions in Libya and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Karabakh. These statements escalated tensions between Turkey and Israel, leading to a war of words between officials of both countries. Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz responded by warning Erdogan of the fate of the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Israeli bloggers also called for NATO to expel Turkey.
This report will discuss Erdogan’s statements regarding Gaza, review some reactions to these statements, and explore the main reasons behind Erdogan’s remarks, as well as attempt to predict the trajectory of these increasingly intense Turkish statements since the outbreak of the war in Gaza.
Main Reactions to Erdogan’s Statements on Gaza:
Erdogan’s latest statements came on July 28th during a public meeting with the AKP, following a week-long verbal spat with Tel Aviv. Erdogan said, “The point that Turkey has reached in the defense industry should not deceive anyone; if Turkey were very strong, Israel would not be able to do what it has done to Palestine.” He added, “Just as we entered Karabakh (Azerbaijan) and Libya, we might do the same with them… There is nothing we cannot do… We just need to be strong, and then what do we do?… We take these steps.”
These statements provoked widespread reactions from the Israeli side, followed by Turkish and international reactions:
- Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz: In a tweet on “X,” he said, “Erdogan is following in Saddam Hussein’s footsteps and threatening to attack Israel. Just let him remember what happened there and how it ended.” He also attached an edited image of Erdogan alongside former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
- Opposition Leader in Israel Yair Lapid: He wrote in a post on “X,” “Israel will not accept threats from a dictator, and the world, especially NATO members, must strongly condemn his heinous threats against Israel and force him to end his support for Hamas.” He added, “President Erdogan is ranting and raving again; he is a danger to the Middle East.”
Reactions to Katz’s tweet varied, with some saying it threatened Erdogan with the fate of Saddam Hussein, who vowed to burn half of Israel and bomb Tel Aviv in 1990. This reveals the role of Zionists in toppling Saddam Hussein’s regime. Israeli bloggers also called for NATO to expel Turkey from the alliance and hold Erdogan accountable for his “irresponsible” statements.
Others pointed to Turkey’s military strength, saying, “Unlike the occupying state, Turkey is a key member and has the second-largest armed forces within NATO after America, with the strongest military forces in the Middle East and the eighth strongest in the world.” Israeli followers saw Katz’s response as further isolating Tel Aviv, putting Israeli diplomacy at risk due to the recklessness at the top.
- Dutch MP Geert Wilders: Called for Turkey to be expelled from NATO over Erdogan’s statements, writing on “X,” “Fascist Islamist Erdogan threatens to invade Israel. This man is completely insane. Turkey should be expelled from NATO.”
Turkish Reactions:
- Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: Criticized Katz’s statements, calling him “sick.” He said on “X,” “Yisrael Katz, instead of fulfilling his duties as Foreign Minister, continuously makes our country and our president the subject of his own fantasies. This is a disease in every sense of the word.” He added, “The presence of this obsessed liar in the government cabinet is an example of the impudence of the Netanyahu government, which is committing genocide and knows no bounds.”
- Turkish Presidential Communications Director Fahrettin Altun: Said in a post on “X,” “Our president and our country cannot learn anything from murderers like you, perpetrators of genocide, with blood-stained hands.” He added, “One day you will be held accountable for the massacres you committed against our Palestinian brothers, and for your shameful genocide.”
Main Reasons Behind Erdogan’s Statements:
- Escalating Crimes in Gaza: Since the beginning of the Israeli aggression on Gaza following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7, 2023, the occupying state has continued to carry out air raids across Gaza, resulting in over 40,000 Palestinian deaths and 77,143 injuries, mostly among women and children. The occupying state has also destroyed most infrastructure and facilities, including health, educational, and administrative institutions. The ongoing crimes likely prompted Erdogan’s statements, expressing his anger at the Israeli crimes and urging the international community to act to resolve the Palestinian issue and stop the ongoing violence in Gaza.
- Internal and Party Pressure: With the escalating violence in Gaza and increasing Israeli crimes, public pressure on the Turkish government to take a tougher stance against Israel has grown. The Turkish public sees the leadership’s stance as passive in the face of Israeli aggression. Opposition parties in Turkey have exploited the situation, launching a black propaganda campaign against the ruling party to rally public support for themselves, demanding actions to sever ties with the occupying state. Contradictions in official statements and government actions have fueled public doubts about the government’s commitment to supporting the Palestinian cause, leading them to demand more assertive actions from Erdogan, especially after Turkey’s decision to suspend trade relations with Israel.
- Showcasing Turkey’s Military and Economic Power: Erdogan spoke in his statements about Turkey’s military strength and its ability to shift regional balances, referencing Turkey’s military role in the Libyan civil war, where Turkey sided with the western Libyan governments, leading to a complete shift in balances. He also mentioned Turkey’s military intervention in the Karabakh war, where Turkish drones and defense products provided significant support to Azerbaijan, changing the course of the war and achieving victory. Erdogan’s threat to intervene against Israel in Gaza underscores Turkey’s economic strength and its ability to withstand the economic pressures that would result from intervening against Israel.
Conclusion:
Despite Erdogan’s threat of military intervention against Israel, it is expected that his threats will remain within the realm of statements, especially given the many shared commercial and political interests between the two countries. All indicators and political determinants governing developments in the region do not suggest a direct Turkish military response against Israel. Israel seems to be treating Erdogan’s threats as mere rhetoric, as it quickly responded to these statements.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time Erdogan has made such statements. He previously did so with Greece, sending a very harsh message to Greece in September 2022, in a speech he gave in Samsun on the occasion of the “Teknofest” festival. He openly stated that he would not hesitate to impose any type of sanctions against Greece if it did not “know its limits,” adding, “We may come suddenly one night, unexpectedly.” However, the matter did not go beyond mere statements.
References:
- Military Expert: The Turkey-Israel Spat Will Remain a War of Words, Al Jazeera, July 29, 2024. Link
- Israeli Minister Calls for Turkey’s Expulsion from NATO, Al Jazeera, July 30, 2024. Link
- Erdogan’s Threats to Israel: Are They Feasible? Sky News Arabia, July 29, 2024. Link
- Will the War of Words Between Turkey and Israel Escalate? Turk Press, July 29, 2024. Link
- Kamil Ozturk, Will Turkey Enter Gaza? Al Jazeera, August 1, 2024. Link
- Ahmed Fahmy, New Phase in Turkish Politics: Reasons for AKP’s Declining Popularity, Shaf Center for Future Studies, May 29, 2024. Link
- Dr. Yasin Aktay, “We May Come Suddenly One Night?” Al Jazeera, September 90, 2024. Link
