The term “major power” in the international relations dictionary usually refers to the United States and Russia (formerly the Soviet Union). However, with the beginning of the 21st century, China has started to challenge Russia for the second place in this ranking. Observers note that Russia is currently (and in the near future as well) increasingly declining, particularly economically, though it still surpasses China in its ability to impose its political will on others, especially in the military realm.
These three countries as major powers will play an extremely important role in the remaining years of this decade, interacting and competing to achieve their national interests.
Transformations of Major Powers:
American William T.R. Fox, a professor of foreign policy and international relations at Columbia University, was the first to coin the term “major power” in the mid-20th century. This term refers to a “highly powerful state capable of imposing its will on other states.” It is also commonly understood that the reason for a major power’s significant influence is its military, technological, economic, and cultural superiority, along with the strength of its governmental policies.
Historically, the Persian Empire was the first major power in the world. Over the years, this empire amassed immense wealth and governed over 44% of the world’s population. Rome, Egypt, and Turkey were also early major powers due to their wealth and cultures. Closer to the present time, the British Empire is considered the first modern major power; at one point, 25% of the world’s population lived under its rule.
In contemporary times, one can confidently expect that other nations and entities will join this classification.
Forecasting the Near Future:
As we try to forecast the coming world order, researchers and analysts are undoubtedly engaging in in-depth studies of political, social, and economic trends and their causes in each of these three major powers. This article will focus on presenting the changes in trends and balance of power over the remaining six years of the current decade in the United States, Russia, and China.
Indeed, there is one common factor among these three major powers: change is on the horizon.
China’s Situation:
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, held in 2022, indicated a retreat and change. With the end of the presidential term, an increased focus on security concerns, especially in the Asian phase, and a reduction in private sector maneuvers, the robustness of the deeper central governance system was emphasized.
I personally recall my visit to China in 1976 when I was a young member of an official government delegation amidst the famous Cultural Revolution. On the surface, the state seemed like an inefficient giant, reflecting a society with limited capabilities to meet basic consumer needs, and cultural indoctrination—symbolized by the spread of standardized gray clothing and bicycles—was widespread. However, even at that time, we could sense a latent desire for change and creative expression despite the challenging circumstances.
By 1978, with the start of the reform process, the average GDP growth rate reached about 9%, and more than 800 million people were lifted out of poverty. China’s economy expanded nearly fortyfold, with significant contributions from non-governmental sectors.
China appears determined to become a global leader in high-tech industries by 2025. It is working to reduce dependence on foreign technologies to enable Chinese companies to compete locally and globally, while simultaneously addressing issues such as an aging population, rising debt, and ongoing disruptions in the real estate sector. China has significant potential as an innovator, a force in renewable energy, and in developing its capital markets. It now holds the largest number of patents and has heavily invested in energy transition (particularly in electric vehicle technologies). China’s domestic stock and bond markets are now the second-largest in the world, and it was the largest capital-raising market in 2022.
On the other hand, the West is focusing on China for 2027 as a short-term indicator of China’s direction toward Taiwan. There are speculations that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the military to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan by that year. However, the Chinese president himself has denied these claims and the possibility of such an event occurring either in 2027 or 2035. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that China’s military budget increased by 7.2% in 2024, raising regional and global concerns. China justified this by citing increased defense needs and joint cooperation. It is worth noting that the United States has the highest military budget in the world, surpassing the combined budgets of the next nine countries.
Russia’s Situation:
When the war in Ukraine erupted, Russia initially believed that its “special military operations” would end decisively and quickly. Conversely, Ukraine and the West thought they could defeat Russia swiftly and that its economy would not withstand and finance the military operations for this war. However, all these expectations proved incorrect as military operations reached a stalemate (though slightly in Russia’s favor). The International Monetary Fund expects Russia’s GDP to grow by 3.2% this year and about 2.8% in the next two years.
Recently, after his re-election in March 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced his senior advisors. For example, Putin appointed economist Andrei Belousov as Defense Minister, perhaps to address complaints related to irregular military supply flows. Putin also moved Sergei Shoigu, his former Defense Minister and close ally, to a new role as Secretary of the Russian Security Council, replacing Nikolai Patrushev. The latter, who had been a long-time National Security Advisor, was moved to an unspecified position. These changes may be an attempt by the Russian president (without causing a major upheaval) to emphasize his sense of responsibility for this ongoing war and its indecisive results, as well as to reaffirm his authority, especially after the Wagner incident, where Defense Minister Shoigu was publicly challenged.
How Russia will deal with Europe in the future will be a top agenda item. However, what Russia will focus on in the near future—since it is more important to it—is understanding U.S. policy under Biden’s re-election or Trump’s potential return. In response to Western encroachments and in preparation for the coming years, we have seen increased Russian presence in various parts of the world. In the context of advocating for a multipolar world and stopping the spread of corruption and the greed of major Western companies and governments, Russian presence has expanded in Africa, including Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Madagascar, Mali, and the Sahel region. Cold War slogans have resurfaced under the guise of preventing Western dominance, alongside renewed interest in engaging with China, the BRICS group, and others.
The United States of America:
All eyes are currently on the upcoming U.S. presidential election, between candidates who have each previously held the title of President of the United States. Thus, neither can serve more than a four-year term at best. Both are over 70 years old, and they have differing views on America’s role, policies, and responsibilities. Although neither candidate is the preferred choice of their party, Biden and Trump are seen as the only candidates capable of defeating their opponents.
The outcome of the election will likely be determined by each candidate’s stance on issues such as the economy, abortion rights, immigration, and age. Regardless of economic policies, other factors mentioned are usually not decisive in elections. Both candidates and the issues that will decide their political fate are a clear reflection of the current American “search for self,” as it were, as Americans try to define their identity domestically and the role their country should play on the international stage. Foreign policy will not be a major consideration at the moment, especially concerning Russia and China. Regarding Gaza, the situation might be electorally costly for Biden due to dissatisfaction among Democrats and the pro-Israel lobby, as neither feels inclined towards the current president.
In conclusion, I expect the United States, China, and Russia to remain, in this order, “major powers” until 2030, unless a military conflict occurs; in such a case, Russia may advance past China.
All three powers are undergoing change and reorganization, and will thus be highly tactical, calculating every step carefully and in the short term throughout this century, while monitoring any indicators that better define the future of the other two powers after their current leadership changes during this decade or the next. What truly concerns me is that mistakes resulting from poor governance or misjudgment could have lasting and impactful consequences globally.
Re-electing Biden might mean the continuation of a confrontational stance towards Russia, especially with Putin’s re-election. However, China remains the greatest challenge facing America from the current administration’s security perspective. Thus, developments in China, particularly economic issues and technology transfer, will be closely monitored by this administration. If Taiwan unifies with China, it is expected to provoke a stronger reaction from Biden. In contrast, if Trump is elected, he is less inclined towards aggressive dealings with other major powers or others; thus, aggressive strategic confrontations would likely be less intense and tense during his term, especially if paired with economic gains for both sides.
Regarding Middle Eastern relations, China will continue to grow economically and politically, albeit slowly. Russia stands on a reactive curve, picking Western weaknesses to gradually gain some strategic assets, especially in logistics facilities. As for Israel and Iran, the three powers are unlikely to use force or be aggressive, whether regarding the Israeli peace process or limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Yemen, Libya, and Sudan are expected to be arenas for repositioning and balancing for the United States and Russia, but they remain of lesser importance to China.
The most important conclusion to be drawn is that the roles of the United States and Russia will not align with the past, and China has a long way to go before it can claim leadership if it truly aims to play that role. Therefore, greater openness on all fronts and diversification of relationships is the best option for Arab countries, with increased reliance on national capabilities and regional relations.
