The Balkans region has recently witnessed numerous shifts in geopolitical power and political influence after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as various international and regional powers, such as China and Turkey, vie to assert their influence in the region. Since the Balkans is located in Southeastern Europe, any changes in the political power balance there will have significant implications for European security.
A 2023 research paper from Germany’s Hanns Seidel Foundation, titled “Geopolitical Shifts in the Balkans,” analyzes the political landscape and key international and regional actors attempting to exert influence in the region. It also discusses the political transformations and the necessary measures Europe must take to assist the Balkan countries in achieving stability and democracy, eventually enabling them to qualify for EU membership.
Key International Players:
Defining the countries of the Balkans can be challenging due to geopolitical reasons and differing opinions on the region’s boundaries. However, according to the common definition, the Balkans include ten countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia. Given the number of countries in the region, several international actors, each with varying interests and influence, are expected to play significant roles, influenced by several factors, including internal conflicts. The report highlights the following key players:
Russia: Russia’s role in the Balkans is not limited to the Ukraine conflict and its repercussions. It has long been involved in controlling local actors, fueling internal conflicts, and keeping the region fragile. For instance, Russia has supported the president of the Republic of Serbia for years in his efforts to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Economically, Russia’s influence is evident in the energy crisis the region faced after the Ukraine war, prompting Europe to allocate a €1 billion aid package to alleviate the war’s effects.
United States: Washington has played a significant role in restoring relative peace to the region over the past 30 years, particularly during ethnic conflicts and wars when Europe failed to provide effective assistance. The U.S. remains a key player, evidenced by the number of Balkan states that have joined NATO.
Turkey: Ankara has leveraged its strategic location between Asia and Europe and its influence in the UN and NATO to become a major political player in the Balkans. Turkey’s geopolitical interest in the region stems from its geographic proximity to Europe, leading it to invest efforts in maintaining security and stability, such as deploying troops and police to joint international forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo.
Gulf States: In recent years, the Gulf countries have shown significant economic interest in the Balkans, which could translate into geopolitical influence in the future. For example, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased investments in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, particularly in aviation, infrastructure, and defense sectors.
China: Beijing is a political competitor to Europe in the Balkans, pursuing strategies that involve unconditional economic support to cultivate loyal allies. China’s strategic influence in the region has grown, evidenced by agreements such as the 2016 Serbia-China cooperation agreement, which fosters positive media representation of China in Serbian outlets. The COVID-19 crisis also boosted China’s influence, especially in economically struggling countries like Serbia.
Europe: Compared to other international actors, Europe’s influence in the Balkans has weakened, particularly as post-Ukraine war financial aid and investments have been insufficient. The EU’s lack of a unified stance on the Balkans is another challenge, though some progress has been made, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina being granted “candidate” status for EU membership late last year.
Serbia and Political Shifts:
The report examines the geopolitical shifts in the Balkans resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war, noting a growing trend toward Europe and away from Russia. Serbia, with its deep political, historical, and cultural ties to Russia, exemplifies this shift. Russia has been a major ally to Serbia, particularly on the issue of Kosovo’s independence, and continues to be seen as a protector of Slavic peoples. The two nations also share a majority Orthodox Christian Slavic population.
Energy is a crucial factor in Serbia’s dependence on Russia, with nearly 100% of Serbia’s natural gas imports coming from Russia at relatively low prices. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has also repeatedly proposed Belgrade as a potential venue for negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Moreover, Serbia relies on Russia for its defense industry, with its defense spending increasing by 70% between 2015 and 2021. Russia and Belarus are the main suppliers of arms to Serbia.
However, there are growing reasons for Serbia to shift away from its reliance on Russia. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is eager for his country to assert itself as an independent power in the Balkans, not merely a Russian ally. Serbia has also made economic and technological strides in recent years and aims to deepen ties with the EU, especially with Germany, its second-largest trading partner after Italy. One of the clearest signs of Serbia’s distancing from Russia was its vote in favor of condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine at the UN General Assembly on March 2, 2022.
Proposed Directions:
Based on its analysis of emerging political actors and shifts in the Balkans, the Hanns Seidel Foundation recommends that European countries adopt specific foreign and security strategies if they wish to strengthen their influence in the region and counter the rising influence of Russia and China. A coordinated U.S.-European strategy with NATO is suggested to curb the roles of these powers, along with efforts to align the policies of major European players, as differences remain between capitals like Berlin and Paris.
The report also emphasizes the importance of enhancing Germany’s diplomatic ties with Hungary, which has signed gas supply agreements with Russia, and boosting efforts to promote democracy and stability in Balkan countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina. Strengthening dialogue, democratic institutions, and the rule of law in these countries is key.
Finally, the foundation urges the EU to accelerate negotiations with candidate countries from the Balkans seeking membership, as this remains Europe’s strongest card for extending its political influence. Financial aid and investments, especially from Germany, are also crucial to address local crises exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, such as the energy crisis.
In conclusion, the foundation calls for meaningful European dialogue on security policies, a focus on military reform, and knowledge-sharing with Balkan countries to help them stabilize their security environments.
Source: Hanns Seidel Stiftung, Geopolitische Machtverschiebungen im Balkanraum, Herdegen, Matthias, 2023.
