In early September 2024, the Defense Science Board (DSB), an independent advisory committee to the U.S. Department of Defense, recommended that the Pentagon proactively address global crises and potential conflicts arising from climate change. According to the report, climate change is poised to reshape defense and security affairs across various regions of the world, necessitating flexible and effective strategies from nations to mitigate losses and manage potential challenges.
Patterns of Threats
Climate change can impact defense affairs in different regions globally in several ways:
One significant threat is the destruction of military infrastructure. The increasing severity of extreme weather events can severely affect a country’s military infrastructure. Many military bases are located in coastal areas and are vulnerable to destruction due to rising sea levels. Additionally, the increase in severe storms and hurricanes can adversely impact military facilities and vital installations such as airports and military bases. The U.S. Department of Defense estimates that about nine major U.S. military bases are at risk of flooding due to rising sea levels, including Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia, the largest naval base in the world, which faces an increasing risk of flooding from sea-level rise and storms. Furthermore, severe flooding at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska in 2019 resulted in approximately $1 billion in damages, affecting 137 military facilities and significantly impacting base operations.
Another concern is the disruption of military supply chains. Climate change and its negative effects—such as damage to roads, bridges, and ports due to natural disasters—can hinder the military’s ability to transport supplies and equipment efficiently. Moreover, extreme weather can lead to shortages of essential resources like water, food, and even fuel in military operation areas, creating logistical challenges that affect the sustainability of military operations worldwide. China faces a particularly significant threat in this regard, as coastal military bases, especially those in the South China Sea, may be at risk. Disruptions to military supply chains could adversely impact the effectiveness of Chinese military activities overall.
Climate change is also likely to have wide-ranging negative implications for the production of advanced defense technology. Supply chain disruptions can affect the production and delivery of rare minerals and the shipment of precision technological components from various locations. This impact extends to updating defense systems and innovating new equipment with advanced technology. Notably, floods in industrial areas, such as Southeast Asia, have led to factory closures that produce advanced defense equipment, including communication systems and drone control devices.
Another critical issue is the widespread damage to weapons and military equipment. The challenges posed by extreme weather necessitate redesigning weapons and military equipment to suit the new environments of warfare and conflict, whether due to extreme heat or cold. A report from the U.S. Defense Science Board released in September 2024 indicates that the Arctic will become a resource conflict zone amid escalating tensions between major powers, potentially turning into an open battlefield, particularly between the United States, China, and Russia.
Environmental stress on equipment may also impact the readiness of regular armies in warfare. For instance, electronics and sensors are sensitive to temperature changes, which may lead to malfunctions. Additionally, changing weather conditions, such as increased storms or extreme weather, can interfere with satellite and radio communications, diminishing the effectiveness of vital military systems such as GPS and radar.
Moreover, extreme weather phenomena create logistical and strategic difficulties that negatively affect military training exercises. These challenges may disrupt operations, hinder training effectiveness, or even impact soldiers and equipment. Floods, storms, and wildfires—common occurrences in countries like the United States, China, Russia, and some European nations—can significantly disrupt military training, especially aerial operations involving aircraft and drones, as well as complicate rescue missions and support tasks.
Finally, the failure to account for the adverse impacts of extreme weather when formulating military plans can lead to significant defeats for armies, regardless of their advanced weaponry. Weather factors influence soldiers’ performance, mobility, and resource availability, necessitating flexible tactics and strategies in harsh environments. This was notably evident in the Russian-Ukrainian war, where heavy rains in Ukraine turned the terrain muddy, impeding the movement of heavy military vehicles and delaying Russian advances in certain areas. Additionally, cold weather delayed military operations for both sides due to its effects on soldiers, logistics, and the damage to some equipment.
Mechanisms of Response
The negative repercussions associated with climate change on the defense affairs of nations necessitate more flexible policies to mitigate these impacts. This can be addressed in several ways:
1. Developing Early Warning Systems for Different Armies: In light of the growing threats posed by climate change to security and defense matters, it is crucial to enhance data collection systems and the analysis of information related to climate change. This will ensure that armed forces can accurately predict the climatic effects on security and defense. Enhancements include developing early warning technologies and forecasting systems to identify potential threats and respond swiftly to climate changes. For instance, the German Ministry of Defense suggests employing methods such as models and simulations that can strengthen the ability to anticipate and prepare for threats and conflicts arising from climate change.
2. Establishing Defense Units to Update Climate Threats: The Defense Science Board has proposed to the U.S. Department of Defense the creation of a “Climate Planning Cell.” This unit would be responsible for compiling and integrating climate data and decision-support tools for political, strategic, and task planning based on climate considerations. This includes assessing the impacts of climate change on adversaries and collaborating with various defense and national institutions to unify efforts, akin to cooperation with the Air Force, Navy, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), NASA, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The aim is to standardize and collect more data from the global sensor network, ultimately targeting an annual update of defense threats linked to climate change to inform political and military leaders.
3. Enhancing Investment in Defense Research and Development: It is crucial for armies to bolster investments in research and development to keep pace with climate threats and their effects on military operations. This ensures that equipment and weaponry are more adaptable to extreme temperatures or cold weather, thus reducing the risk of damage. Additionally, efforts should focus on improving the sustainability of military infrastructure and employing sustainable technologies that enhance the effectiveness of defense technologies in the near future.
4. Training Soldiers to Adapt to Climate Threats: Defense planning must account for the climate’s effects on future military operations, with the individual soldier being the most critical factor to consider. It is essential to prepare military personnel to confront climate-related challenges. Training programs can cover topics related to climate impacts and how to manage them, alongside practical exercises to assess soldiers’ readiness to handle changing environments, whether in extreme temperatures or areas affected by natural disasters.
5. Expanding Multilateral International Defense Cooperation: Climate change poses a global threat to all nations and their armed forces, making multilateral international cooperation vital. This includes strengthening partnerships with allied countries and international organizations such as the United Nations, the European Union, and NATO to develop integrated defense strategies capable of addressing cross-border climate threats. It also facilitates the exchange of knowledge, experiences, and technologies, as well as developing joint solutions to mitigate climate threats related to defense affairs.
In conclusion, time is the most crucial factor in determining the ability of armed forces to confront climate-related threats. Proactive preparedness and the activation of early warning systems to address such impactful threats to national and international security and defense are essential. This proactive stance will be critical for the future effectiveness of conventional armies and their readiness to overcome the diverse patterns of threats linked to climate change in both the short and medium term.
