Continuing an annual tradition in U.S. intelligence agencies, these agencies, led by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, released their annual report on the threats facing U.S. national security (2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community). On Tuesday, March 12, 2024, the Senate Intelligence Committee held a hearing to discuss the report, which featured several U.S. intelligence agency heads, including Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence; William Burns, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); Jeffrey Kilos, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA); Christopher Wray, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); and others.
During the hearing, a summary report was presented, derived from the main report prepared by U.S. intelligence agencies. It consisted of two sections: the first focused on traditional threats from state actors (including an assessment of risks from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) and some conflicts and fragile regions; the second focused on unconventional and transnational threats, covering issues such as technology, migration, human trafficking, terrorism, and health risks.
Traditional Threats:
The report highlighted major threats from state actors and fragile regions, including:
China: China aims to become a dominant global superpower by preparing early for challenges and countering U.S. influence. China skillfully combines economic power, military strength, and technological dominance to bolster the rule of the Chinese Communist Party, assert its regional claims, and expand its global influence. Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and strategic relationships with countries such as Russia enhance its capabilities.
China’s continuous pursuit of technological superiority is evident through substantial investments, intellectual property acquisition, and advancements in areas like artificial intelligence, DNA sequencing, and chip production. Additionally, China poses challenges and threats in areas like chemical and biological warfare, actively working to develop a modern national defense and military force, including upgrading its nuclear capabilities, which will increase its confidence in its abilities. However, China faces internal challenges, such as economic slowdown and public discontent with harsh policies, which could hinder its ambitions. Moreover, its international tactics have led to increased resistance from other countries, and its domestic espionage laws have limited the interest of major companies, while also facing challenges related to declining birth rates and reduced marriage rates.
Russia: Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine has caused significant damage both domestically and internationally, deteriorating Moscow’s global reputation and resulting in substantial military losses. Nevertheless, it remains a genuine threat to the West. Russia seeks to assert and defend its interests globally and undermine the United States and the West by strengthening ties with China, Iran, and North Korea, which poses a significant challenge to Western countries.
Despite its considerable losses in the war with Ukraine, the current situation favors Moscow, especially as it continues to develop its long-range capabilities and ammunition, allowing it to sustain its fighting capacity over extended periods. Moscow will increasingly rely on nuclear and anti-strategic deterrence capabilities while rebuilding its ground forces. However, the Russian air and naval forces will continue to provide Moscow with some global power projection capabilities. Additionally, Russia represents an ongoing cyber threat, using cyber disruptions as a tool of foreign policy to influence other countries’ decisions and continually improving its espionage capabilities.
Iran: Iran aims to solidify its status as a regional power while posing a threat to U.S. interests and its allies’ influence in the Middle East. It leverages military successes, support for proxies, and expanding diplomatic influence to achieve its goals. On the nuclear front, Iran has significantly expanded its program, reducing the International Atomic Energy Agency’s oversight and positioning itself to produce a nuclear device if desired. Iran’s hybrid warfare approach, combining conventional and unconventional capabilities, including armed proxies, presents a persistent threat to U.S. interests in the region. Iran also possesses the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the region, focusing on improving their accuracy, lethality, and reliability. Its missile capabilities, drones, air defense, and naval assets pose threats to U.S. and partner assets in the Middle East.
However, Iran faces internal challenges such as poor economic performance, high inflation, and societal grievances. Its heavy reliance on oil exports to China, amidst a declining Chinese growth rate, is a vulnerability, along with the succession issue of Supreme Leader Khamenei, who is over 80 years old.
North Korea: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un continues to develop both nuclear and conventional military capabilities that threaten the United States and its allies. North Korea aims to reshape the regional security environment in its favor and seeks stronger ties with China and Russia for financial gains, diplomatic support, and defense cooperation. It engages in missile launches to highlight the threat posed by its military, especially in response to the trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Kim Jong-un remains committed to expanding North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, ordering increases in nuclear weapons stockpiles and the production of nuclear materials for weapon creation.
North Korea’s cyber program represents an evolving and active threat in terms of espionage, cybercrime, and targeted attacks. Its cyber capabilities have matured, enabling it to achieve strategic objectives against diverse targets, including the United States and South Korea. North Korea will continue its ongoing cyber campaign, focusing on cryptocurrency theft, money laundering, and maintaining IT workers abroad to generate additional funds.
Conflicts and Fragile Areas:
The U.S. intelligence report indicated that Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023 and the subsequent Israeli military response in Gaza heightened regional tensions. It noted that Iran’s agents and allies are engaging in activities against the U.S. and supporting attacks on Israel, while the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza is putting international pressure on Israel. Additionally, Iran-backed attacks pose a threat to stability in Lebanon, Iraq, the Gulf, and the Red Sea.
Both Iran and Israel are unlikely to seek direct conflict. The report highlighted that the governance structures and security in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as the humanitarian situation and reconstruction efforts in Gaza, are key elements shaping the long-term Israeli-Palestinian relationship.
The report also covered several other hotspots:
India-China Border: Despite the lack of major clashes since 2020, large-scale troop deployments and sporadic encounters increase the risk of miscalculations and escalation into armed conflict.
India-Pakistan Border: Although both countries maintain a fragile calm after renewing the ceasefire in early 2021, Pakistan’s history of supporting anti-India armed groups and India’s increasing willingness under Prime Minister Narendra Modi to respond with military force raise the risk of escalation. Regarding Azerbaijan and Armenia, relations are expected to remain tense without a bilateral peace treaty, though Azerbaijan’s reclaiming of Nagorno-Karabakh has reduced fluctuations.
Internal Conflicts in Certain Countries:
Afghanistan: The Taliban regime consolidates power, imposes a theocratic rule, restricts freedoms, and fails to address humanitarian and economic issues. Regional powers are cautiously engaging with the Taliban while focusing on containing problems within Afghanistan.
Sudan: The prolonged conflict increases the risk of violence and terrorism spreading beyond Sudan’s borders, foreign involvement, and humanitarian crises. Warring security forces receive foreign military support, hindering peace talks.
Ethiopia: Concurrent internal conflicts intensify ethnic tensions and threaten atrocities against civilians. Ongoing conflicts in the Amhara region and unresolved regional issues are persistent threats.
African Sahel Region: Poor governance, public grievances, and a lack of military resources increase the likelihood of crises in the Sahel—particularly coups—spilling over into neighboring countries. Contributing factors include weak regional institutions, exploitation of unrest by major powers, and Western partners prioritizing security over democracy and governance.
Haiti: Weak government institutions are losing control to gangs, leading to economic decline and worsening humanitarian conditions. Gangs resist the deployment of foreign national troops and demand the government’s removal.
Venezuela: President Maduro maintains power through control of state institutions and support from China, Iran, and Russia. Migration remains high due to economic opportunities and poverty issues.
Transboundary Risks:
Disruptive Technology: Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and biotechnology pose various ethical and security challenges. For instance, stealth technology impacts security and defense considerations, prompting a search for new detection systems. Risks include fake videos and viruses.
Digital Authoritarianism: Foreign states use digital and physical means to suppress critics and expatriate communities abroad, constraining their influence. Digital influence operations involve public opinion manipulation, while physical repression includes assassinations and abductions.
Weapons of Mass Destruction: The spread of nuclear weapons challenges global non-proliferation efforts. North Korea’s ongoing nuclear threats and tensions between Pakistan and India heighten the risk of nuclear escalation. The report also anticipated chemical weapons use beyond inter-state conflicts, as seen in Syria and targeted killings by North Korea and Russia.
Climate Change: Climate and environmental changes intersect with geopolitical tensions and weaken global systems. Climate-related disasters deepen economic challenges in poor countries and increase risks of conflicts over scarce resources.
Health Security: Shortages in national health systems, public distrust, and misinformation hinder countries’ ability to address health threats. The report predicts a global shortage of at least 10 million healthcare workers by 2030, primarily affecting low- and middle-income countries.
Migration: Conflicts, violence, political instability, poor economic conditions, and natural disasters drive migration within and across borders. This strains countries’ capacity to absorb newcomers and manage public discontent, with potential increases in irregular migration to wealthy countries due to political unrest and economic challenges in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
Drug Trafficking: Organized crime groups in the Western Hemisphere trade illegal drugs, endangering millions and contributing to global drug demand and health crises. Mexico remains the primary drug supplier to the U.S.
Money Laundering: Transnational criminal organizations launder billions of dollars through U.S. financial institutions using various fraudulent schemes, shell companies, and money laundering operations.
Cybercrime: Internet crimes, especially ransomware attacks, target critical services and infrastructure, with increasing cyber defense vulnerabilities in low-income countries.
International Terrorism: The nature of terrorist threats has evolved; small cells or individuals inspired by foreign terrorist organizations are a concern. However, ISIS and al-Qaeda remain active, with ISIS focusing on global attacks and al-Qaeda maintaining its networks.
Private Military Companies (PMCs): PMCs, linked to U.S. adversaries like Russia, pose a threat to global security by escalating violence in fragile areas. These companies have become essential in modern military operations and are seen by China, Russia, and Turkey as positive factors in protecting their overseas interests.
In conclusion, this report is a condensed and published version of the original, unpublished report. It provides insight into the perceived dangers and threats to U.S. national security as understood by American intelligence agencies. Notably, the same four countries (China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran) remain identified as the most significant threats to U.S. national security, as in the 2023 report. The current report also integrates the Russia-Ukraine war within the section on Russia, whereas the previous report had a separate section dedicated to it (specifically its economic impacts). This change may reflect a shift in the American collective perception of the war, now viewed as a routine element within the broader Russian threat.
