The campaign for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is working hard to win over any voter groups that could help secure a victory in the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November 5, 2024. In doing so, the campaign has placed a clear emphasis on American voters living abroad, recognizing them as a crucial factor and an opportunity that could be leveraged to secure higher voting numbers in the race, especially since they have the legal right to participate in the election. Official data from the U.S. Department of State indicates that there are approximately 6.5 million American citizens abroad who are eligible to vote, out of a total of 9 million expatriates. This is a significant number that could influence the outcome of the election, particularly in swing states.
Although former President Donald Trump’s campaign is also working to attract voters abroad and has organized efforts to encourage them to vote for Trump in various countries, including the United Kingdom, using campaign volunteers, various estimates and analyses suggest that the Democratic Party is more focused than the Republicans in this regard, and that their chances of success are stronger.
Harris’s Strategy
Due to the efforts made by the Biden campaign in the 2020 election, the Democratic candidate was able to surpass Trump by seven million votes. While these votes do not represent the total number of voters abroad—since about 900,000 Americans living abroad cast their ballots—some of these votes resulted from educational campaigns carried out by influential former ambassadors on social media platforms. These ambassadors, in collaboration with the “Democrats Abroad” organization, succeeded in encouraging voters to register electronically to obtain absentee ballots. For instance, the state of Georgia received 18,475 votes from Americans living abroad, while over 18,000 overseas votes came from Arizona. Biden won both states by margins of 11,779 votes in Georgia and 10,457 votes in Arizona, helping him secure the electoral votes needed for victory. Harris’s campaign aims to replicate this success in the current race.
To achieve this, the Harris campaign is employing several key strategies, including:
Raising Awareness About the Legal Right to Vote: Although there are legal provisions granting Americans abroad the right to participate in elections, many remain unaware of this right. For example, in the 2016 presidential race between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and former President Donald Trump, only about 8% of eligible overseas voters participated, amounting to roughly 512,696 votes. The main reason for this low turnout is the lack of awareness about their voting rights and the process of how to cast their votes. Harris’s campaign is working to inform overseas voters of the ways in which they can participate in the upcoming election.
Allocating Funds to Attract Voters in Swing States: Acknowledging that her position against Trump is not particularly strong in the election and encouraging voters to go to the polls and vote for her, Harris is making moves on all fronts. As part of her focus on overseas voters, the Democratic National Committee announced the allocation of approximately $300,000 in August 2024 to assist American residents abroad—specifically in Europe and Mexico—who hail from key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There are an estimated 1.6 million eligible voters from these swing states living abroad, and the funds are aimed at helping them register to receive absentee ballots.
Highlighting Trump’s Foreign Policy: Foreign policy issues and the United States’ relationships with global partners are significant determinants for voters abroad, as they are directly impacted by U.S. foreign policies. Trump’s approach, which tends to favor American isolationism and distancing from allies, could increase hostility toward Americans abroad, whether they are ordinary citizens or investors whose businesses might be affected by tariffs that Trump plans to impose, or immigration policies that would impact many individuals worldwide, not just in the U.S. As such, Democrats believe that voters abroad tend to lean toward the Democratic Party due to their focus on foreign policy over domestic issues, estimating that 75% of overseas voters support liberal policies. Democrats are emphasizing the divisions that Trump might exacerbate if he returns to the White House, presenting Harris as the remedy to the challenging future they believe Trump would bring.
Leveraging Influential Political Figures: Democrats are utilizing various social media platforms to engage with voters abroad. Prominent Democratic figures are delivering messages to Americans overseas, encouraging them to support Harris. For instance, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi shared a video in which she stated, “This election is too important to ignore,” emphasizing that overseas votes helped Biden win the 2020 election, as well as contributed to Senator John Ossoff and Senator Raphael Warnock’s victories in the 2022 midterm elections. Pelosi stressed that these votes would be crucial in this year’s election, urging voters to cast their ballots for Harris.
Clarifying the Correct Voting Procedures: While the U.S. government cannot directly endorse Harris due to the Hatch Act, which prohibits federal employees from expressing political preferences, the U.S. State Department, through its official platforms, has been providing guidance on how overseas citizens can register to vote. The department has explained that the process has become much smoother in recent years, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic, which prompted many states to allow electronic voting. The department also clarified that voting can be done by visiting U.S. embassies and consulates in various countries.
Organizing Virtual Fundraising Events: Virtual fundraising events are not solely focused on raising money but also aim to encourage broader participation in the electoral process by highlighting the benefits voters may gain from the election of a particular candidate and the losses they may face if the other candidate wins. To this end, the “Democrats Abroad” organization has held several virtual fundraising events, including one in August that raised around $100,000. The organization’s president, Erin Kotecki Vest, stated, “Our message is that no matter how many miles away you are, every U.S. election affects your loved ones, family, and friends back home. It will impact the coming years and decades. This will affect you.”
In conclusion, while voters living abroad do not represent a large voting bloc capable of dramatically altering the election results, they do have the potential to sway the outcome in certain states, as seen in 2020. This presents an opportunity for Harris to overcome her opponent, Trump, although various factors could influence these voters’ decisions. Among these factors are Biden’s foreign policies, which have contributed to the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza, the return of Taliban control in Afghanistan, and other international issues.
However, Trump could exploit electronic voting and mail-in ballots to cast doubt on the election results, continuing his narrative of election fraud. Additionally, there are other factors Trump could use to his advantage, including the possibility of foreign entities hostile to Washington interfering in the election by spreading disinformation to sway American voters. Overall, Trump’s strategy seems to focus on creating general confusion, which could help him regain the White House by any means necessary.
