Information has become increasingly crucial and decisive for the defense and security agencies of countries worldwide in achieving strategic and operational goals in areas of conflict, cooperation, and overall human and social interactions. The information environment is expected to undergo changes that present both opportunities and risks. These changes encompass current and emerging technological advancements and their impact on social and cultural developments in societies. Consequently, there has been a heightened interest in the information environment among defense agencies in many countries, especially advanced ones, accompanied by increased awareness of the processes and effects resulting from these changes.
In this context, the RAND Corporation conducted a study in 2024 exploring how technological developments in the information environment shape culture within the timeline of the next generation, specifically from 2035 to 2050. The study describes the technological change landscape in the next-generation information environment, develops a conceptual framework to interpret the links between technological change and culture, assesses its impacts, and proposes recommendations for managing these changes, particularly for the UK Ministry of Defense.
The “Next-Generation” Information Environment:
The information environment consists of the processes through which individuals, groups, and society are exposed to, store, consume, and use information for decision-making or communication. It includes three fundamental dimensions:
- The Physical Dimension: Refers to the physical characteristics of the information environment, such as the infrastructure facilitating communication and information processing, and the technological tools and machines connecting devices equipped with sensors to other devices via the Internet, known as the Internet of Things (IoT).
- The Virtual Dimension: Encompasses how information is transmitted virtually and exchanged among people or within the community, such as through social media platforms like Facebook and X (formerly Twitter).
- The Cognitive Dimension: Refers to human cognitive capabilities and the factors influencing how information is perceived and translated into behavior, including social, cultural, linguistic, and psychological elements of human perception and behavior.
These dimensions impact five critical processes in the information environment: how individuals, groups, and society at large are exposed to information, including online; their consumption of it; how it is processed and used in decision-making; how it is communicated to others; and how it is collected and stored.
There are ten categories of technological advancements, each encompassing a range of new technologies:
Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI technologies offer significant opportunities and risks in the current information environment, with numerous future development areas of high impact. Ongoing advancements include artificial neural networks, natural language processing, unsupervised machine learning, and deep reinforcement learning.
Biotechnology: Applying biotechnology to data storage increases the potential for storing information as DNA sequences, facilitating high-density storage of large amounts of data and eliminating the need for large and costly data storage facilities in the future.
Extended Reality: Future technological developments in extended reality include real-time holographic imaging and neural display, meaning realistic digital representations of humans instead of computer-generated avatars, as well as interactive augmented reality applications.
Human-Machine Interaction Interfaces: Research indicates that advancements in this field may lead to technologies that facilitate new patterns of communication and interaction between people with the aid of technology.
Information and Communication Technology (ICT): Includes advancements in contemporary technologies that facilitate communication, and information technology concepts such as blockchain applications for information processing systems.
Advanced Materials: Involves a few but relevant applications for the future information environment, including expected advancements in next-generation electronics like silicon and graphene for high-performance and rapid data storage.
Sensors: Advances in sensing technologies enable innovation in mobile devices, augmented reality technologies, and the anticipated expansion of the Internet of Things.
Space Technology: Future developments may include advancements in small satellite technologies facilitating global communication and communications technologies in deep space.
Quantum Technology and Encryption: Quantum technology applications relate to the information environment concerning new communication infrastructures and advanced data storage capabilities.
Security and Privacy: Concerns the risks of privacy, security threats, and cybersecurity guarantees.
Information security is a critical dimension of the next-generation information environment, potentially amplifying or mitigating challenges related to privacy, information integrity, and reliability due to other technological advancements. The study predicts that the development of the web will significantly alter online cultural spaces. However, it remains unclear whether the conceptual foundation of the web and other information security solutions can be effectively implemented or if they may lead to unintended consequences.
Privacy and Identities:
The study proposes a four-stage framework for analyzing the cultural impacts of technological changes. The first stage involves understanding technology as a “driver” of cultural change, noting that this role depends on understanding the intended use of technology, the underlying intentions behind its development, user applications, and regulatory frameworks. The second stage involves generating a cultural topography, considering culture’s presence at any level of human interaction, not just the nation-state level.
The third stage involves understanding environmental interactions by creating a roadmap that identifies specific contexts for technology use and its potential interactions with culture. The fourth stage involves evaluating the impact or integration of technologies, meaning integrating all outputs from the previous stages to consider whether the technologies are likely to be assimilated into culture or mediate cultural change. Speed of advancement in information security could be a major factor in the cultural impact of emerging technologies as a whole.
In a related context, the study highlights four broad topics within the future cultural context of the information environment concerning the effects of technological advancements: leading the changing landscape of cultural identities, potentially reducing the significance of demographic and geographic determinants; “hybridization of human identity” through technological empowerment; raising concerns about cultural norms and values regarding privacy, fairness, and accountability; and continuing to amplify cognitive biases affecting how individuals handle information, exacerbating difficulties in establishing and understanding facts, enabling social movements, and increasing the shaping of social and cultural change paths.
On the other hand, the study discusses human enhancement technologies, which enhance human capabilities both physically and cognitively. This relies on advancements in various technological fields, including sensing technologies, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence. Human enhancement technologies could significantly alter future capabilities in navigation and information handling, transforming many dynamics within the information environment.
There are two factors for enabling potential cultural change through technology concerning human enhancement technologies: First, significant levels of human enhancement might be socially and culturally disruptive, challenging existing concepts of personal and human identity, such as universal human rights. Second, advanced human enhancement might challenge existing social forms among people, leading to new social hierarchies and divisions between “haves” and “have-nots.” Finally, alongside potential technological limitations, ethical and normative considerations may restrict available levels of human enhancement in the next-generation information environment.
Key Findings:
The primary goal of the study is to draw conclusions about the information environment and its interactions and then reach recommendations for the UK Ministry of Defense to manage this environment effectively. As the information environment evolves, the Ministry of Defense will need a more precise understanding of these dynamics and their direct and indirect effects. Accordingly, the study identified three groups of implications for the UK Ministry of Defense concerning its ability to:
Understand Future Trends in the Cultural Impact of Emerging Technologies: The Ministry of Defense should comprehend the details of these impacts, identify different expected scenarios, and understand how these scenarios might affect defense strategically, operationally, and tactically. To support this, the Ministry should expand the study’s conceptual framework to understand the impact of future technologies on culture, including applying the complete framework through more comprehensive studies, possibly targeting fewer technologies in greater depth.
Operate Effectively in a Changing Information Environment: The Ministry of Defense should continue monitoring emerging research on the effects of augmented reality, mixed reality, and virtual reality technologies and the potential for social manipulation. Additionally, the Ministry should seek to understand strategies and methods for engaging with the public and remain aware of the impact of technological change on shaping cultural identities, particularly in the UK.
Navigate a Changing Social and Cultural Context to Develop and Exploit Emerging Technologies: The Ministry of Defense should continuously explore and monitor cultural norms and values regarding the use of key emerging technologies and how they affect perceptions of acceptable use in defense contexts. Proactively exploring the normative context of technological innovation could help the Ministry understand relevant ethical and normative standards to integrate into technological development.
The study concludes that from 2035 to 2050, the information environment will be shaped by diverse technological advancements across various research disciplines in science and technology, ranging from the gradual development of new and current technologies. Technological progress is expected to impact various fields in how we consume, share, and interact with information. Therefore, deepening the understanding of the cultural impact of new and emerging technologies, staying informed about emerging research on social manipulation threats, and continuously exploring and monitoring cultural norms and values around the use of key emerging technologies are crucial.
Source:
Slapakova, L., Fraser, A., Hughes, M., Aquilino, M. C., & Thue, K. (2024). Cultural and technological change in the future information environment. RAND Corporation.
