The past two decades have been marked by a series of unexpected events that triggered significant geopolitical consequences around the world, such as the outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2011, Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. elections, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, and Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022. These events have forced countries to reassess their geopolitical strategies, making it essential to develop a forward-looking vision for global events, focusing on their strategic impact to mitigate negative consequences.
In this context, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs released a report in May 2024, offering a foresight on anticipated global political shifts in the near future, particularly those impacting Germany and Europe. The report outlines five scenarios, including Europe’s shift towards illiberalism, China winning the space race, a radical reform of the United Nations Security Council, changes in Washington’s policy towards Ukraine, and the emergence of a new pandemic originating from Russia.
Europe’s Shift Towards Illiberalism:
The report predicts the emergence of an unusual political alliance in Europe by 2027. This alliance will be formed by the newly elected French president, the Italian prime minister, and the Swedish prime minister, who will stand together to announce a European political vision that departs from traditional liberal values. This new vision will be rooted primarily in right-wing political ideologies, reflecting the growing power of right-wing parties, not only in their respective countries but also within the European Union’s Parliament, Council, and Commission.
The foresight scenario is based on the rising prominence of right-wing parties. Since 2020, these parties have been split into three distinct blocs. The first is the moderate bloc, represented by the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). The second is the extreme bloc, exemplified by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The third includes right-wing European parties that did not originally belong to any EU-wide political family, such as Hungary’s Fidesz party, which joined the ECR after the 2024 European Parliament elections.
The right-wing movement has steadily gained a larger electoral share over time. In 2009, it held 15% of the seats in the European Parliament, which increased to 25% in the 2019-2024 legislative term. According to this foresight model, the right-wing’s electoral gains will continue to rise, culminating in a right-wing party winning the French presidency in 2027. Notably, the fragmentation within the right-wing factions is gradually diminishing as they gain new influence within the European Union.
It is expected that the right-wing will pursue several strategies to accelerate Europe’s shift towards illiberalism. These include strengthening Europe’s relations with Russia and establishing the EU Agency for Demography and Sustainable Development to help member states develop strategies aimed at boosting birth rates. This would ensure that the resulting human capital is harnessed to enhance competitiveness and prosperity, including the implementation of unified tax credits for large families across Europe.
The report also anticipates the failure of efforts to regulate migration and asylum rights in Europe. In response, the French president is expected to call for a national referendum in 2027 on halting immigration, which may lead the EU to officially close its borders and expel asylum seekers. Although the EU Agency for Demography aims to fill the labor market gap, it is likely to fall short, and the proportion of irregular migrant workers is expected to continue growing.
Chinese Leadership in the Space Race:
The report predicts that by 2028, China will announce the beginning of a new era of space under its dominance, marking the end of American control over this domain. This will follow China’s first manned lunar mission in collaboration with Iran and Hungary. This forecast is based on China’s space advancements starting from 2021, including its launch of a Sino-Russian initiative to create an International Lunar Research Station.
Despite Russia facing Western sanctions due to the Ukraine war, which has relegated its role to a secondary one, China has continued to develop this initiative, turning it into a multi-lateral alliance by 2026. Surprisingly, European countries will join this alliance after Trump’s excessively aggressive stance against China and its space collaborators in his second presidential inauguration speech in 2025. The report assumes Trump will win the upcoming election in November 2024, leading to a weakening of European-American space relations, as Europe realizes that Trump’s policies aim to position the United States as the top space power.
China has succeeded in many space activities, including building a satellite navigation system and testing anti-satellite weapons (which involve signal jamming and cyber capabilities). Additionally, China is conducting extraction missions for various minerals and helium gas from the lunar surface. The report notes that unless China can build strong partnerships in space, it will struggle to maintain its lead over the United States for long.
Expansion of the Security Council:
In another forecast, the report anticipates radical changes in the Security Council by 2028, with its membership doubling from 16 to 27. Six countries will receive semi-permanent membership, sharing veto power with the five permanent members. These semi-permanent seats will initially be allocated for eight years, with regional distribution considered, and such members can only be removed by a two-thirds majority of the UN General Assembly. The report suggests Germany is a prime candidate for semi-permanent membership and anticipates that permanent members might agree to forgo their veto power if they are involved in military conflict.
However, these changes in the Security Council would not bear fruit without other contributing factors, such as the Council’s repeated failures to maintain international peace and security, and the widening gap between the five permanent members: Russia and China versus the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. This gap has made it rare to make relevant decisions, especially with escalating conflicts in Ukraine, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Horn of Africa.
Musk’s Intervention to End the War:
According to the report, 2025 may bring statements from Elon Musk through his social media platform “X” (formerly Twitter), urging Ukrainian forces to ceasefire and negotiate a peaceful resolution, accepting the territorial losses to Russia by the end of 2024.
Musk leverages his technological influence to pressure both Washington and Kyiv, amid favorable conditions with a declining American public support for funding Ukraine in the war, and increasing calls to focus on rebuilding a strong United States. Musk’s pressure tactics include his company SpaceX, which is a vital partner for the U.S. government in space. “Starlink” is the sole provider of satellite communications in low Earth orbit, noted for its high resistance to attacks due to its large number of supporting satellites.
The political community is aware of Starlink’s role in facilitating communication for the Ukrainian community and military; Musk provided free internet access via his satellite network to the Ukrainian military shortly after the war began. However, as the war continues, Musk’s concerns about financial and political costs grow, leading to the idea of ending his support for Ukraine, according to the report’s projections.
Upcoming Epidemic from Russia:
In 2027, the world faces a grave threat to human health, food security, and biodiversity due to a disease (a type of anthrax) emerging from melting ice in Russia. This anthrax quickly spreads through birds, causing a global epidemic. Although Russia reports no deaths, the increasing number of cases reveals the poor state of global health infrastructure and the need for effective global health governance, equitable medical measures in case of a pandemic, and cooperation with civil society to raise awareness about these diseases and prevention methods.
Amid these predicted events, there will be a gradual lifting of the ban on scientific cooperation between Germany, Europe, and Russia due to the new epidemic affecting all countries. Denmark will be a significant European contributor to this scientific cooperation due to the outbreak in Greenland within its borders. Additionally, China and Russia will engage in close communication to prevent the epidemic’s spread due to their geographical proximity, similar to their cooperation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In conclusion, the researchers at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs do not guarantee that their projections regarding these five global political events will come to pass. Nevertheless, it is crucial to consider all possible scenarios so that nations and governments can prepare by formulating appropriate German and European policies to address future risks.
