Since the conclusion of the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, the relationship between India and Armenia has witnessed remarkable development. Yerevan has begun to seek diversification in its international partnerships, driven by a desire to restructure its traditional foreign policy, which had heavily relied on Russia. In this context, with these shifts in Armenian foreign policy, India has emerged as a promising potential partner for the country located in the South Caucasus region. This partnership provides mutual economic and security benefits, making it a fruitful collaboration for both parties. Consequently, India has become a strong ally across various sectors, particularly in defense, economy, and technology, not to mention providing political support internationally on issues of mutual interest.
Growing Cooperation
The convergence between India and Armenia is characterized by several features, as both countries work to develop their bilateral relations across various common areas. The most significant aspects can be outlined as follows:
1. Growing Defense Partnership: Defense cooperation between India and Armenia forms one of the fundamental pillars of this convergence. New Delhi has become the main supplier of arms and military equipment to Yerevan in recent years, particularly since 2022, challenging Russia’s traditional role as the supplier, which accounted for over 93% of Armenia’s arms imports from 2011 to 2020. However, due to Western sanctions imposed on Russia and its resource shortages resulting from recent developments, Armenia has turned to India as a primary partner to supply the necessary military equipment and training that bolster its security and stability.
In 2020, Armenia signed several contracts with India to purchase various military systems, with a total value of around two billion dollars. This included the “Akash-1S” air defense missile system, of which Armenia requested 15 units valued at 720 million dollars, expected to be delivered later this year. A report from the Indian Ministry of Finance indicated that Armenia has become the largest importer of Indian weapons after sealing deals to purchase “Pinaka” multiple launch rocket systems and “Akash” anti-aircraft systems, valued at approximately 600 million dollars at the beginning of the 2024-2025 fiscal year. Furthermore, New Delhi has committed, under multi-million dollar defense agreements, to supply the Armenian army with howitzers, anti-tank missiles, and counter-drone equipment. This reflects the strategic efforts of both nations to reshape their military relations, culminating in India appointing its first defense attaché in Yerevan this year, thereby enhancing its military diplomacy with Armenia.
2. Mutual Support in National Issues: India and Armenia share a common goal of creating regional balance against the trilateral alliance between Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. While Ankara and Baku supported Pakistan’s stance on the Kashmir issue, which raised concerns in New Delhi, Yerevan, in contrast, clearly expressed support for India’s position on this matter, strengthening relations between the two countries and establishing a foundation for countering opposing regional alliances.
Regarding the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, Pakistan has publicly supported the Azerbaijani cause since the first Karabakh war and has not established diplomatic relations with Armenia. India, however, has adopted a more neutral stance, supporting diplomatic efforts to reach a long-term solution and encouraging countries to achieve lasting peace and security, amidst evident military support for Armenian forces, especially given the decline in Russian military support for Yerevan.
3. Expanding Technological Cooperation: Technological collaboration between India and Armenia has received a strong boost as both countries enhance partnerships in digital technology fields. For instance, in 2023, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at promoting digital transformation and exchanging innovative technical solutions, as part of efforts to develop Armenia’s digital infrastructure. This paves the way for Yerevan to benefit from India’s leading experience in this area.
Additionally, Armenia is showing increasing interest in utilizing India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI), which can facilitate secure and swift financial transactions between individuals and businesses. This interest aligns with the growing presence of Indian labor in Armenia, particularly in sectors like construction and delivery services, further enhancing commercial ties between the two countries and supporting economic exchanges.
4. Proposing Trade Connectivity Plans: The economic partnership between India and Armenia is of strategic importance as both countries seek to develop an international transport corridor linking India with European markets via Iran and Armenia. This corridor represents a significant opportunity to elevate Armenia’s status as a logistical center for international trade, while also assisting India in overcoming traditional logistical challenges in trading with the European Union and Eurasian markets. This corridor offers India a strategic alternative to address connectivity issues with the EU via Russia, given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and through the Suez Canal, due to the continued threats from Houthi forces in the Red Sea. Thus, economic cooperation between India and Armenia is a crucial foundation for building a multidirectional trade network that transcends traditional geopolitical and economic obstacles.
5. Engaging in Multilateral Partnerships: The convergence between India and Armenia includes both countries participating in multilateral partnerships, notably the trilateral partnership (India-Iran-Armenia), which may contribute to enhancing the aforementioned international transport corridor, thus fostering trade and economic connectivity among the three nations. Iran’s Chabahar Port serves as a focal point for this partnership, as Armenia obtained access to it in January 2024 to facilitate trade exchanges with India.
In addition to the trilateral partnership, discussions are underway to establish a quadrilateral cooperation involving Armenia, Greece, France, and India, aimed at bolstering defense and political cooperation among these countries. This was strongly emphasized during the talks between the Greek and Armenian defense ministers in March 2024.
6. Strengthening Diplomatic Relations: Diplomatic relations between India and Armenia have seen significant activity in recent years, with both nations intensifying mutual visits and diplomatic talks. This was exemplified by Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Yerevan in October 2021, which marked the first visit by a senior Indian official since Armenia’s independence in 1991, reflecting New Delhi’s desire to strengthen its relationship with Yerevan and keep pace with the geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus region.
Subsequent mutual visits continued; in 2022, the then-Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan visited India, while Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan also visited India that same year. Furthermore, Armenian Economy Minister Vahan Kerobyan participated in the “Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit” in January 2024. On February 18, 2024, the Indian Foreign Minister met with his Armenian counterpart on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Common Motivations for Strengthening Ties
India is seeking to establish strategic relations with Armenia, aiming to attract it in a way that achieves their shared goals in the region. The main motivators for the rapprochement between the two countries can be summarized as follows:
One of the key factors driving this collaboration is Armenia’s efforts to leverage New Delhi’s international standing. This alignment arises from geopolitical shifts in the region, particularly following the recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, where Armenia lost control over the territory. In this context, Armenia perceives that India could play a role in balancing the unstable geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus, especially given Moscow’s distraction with various issues, including the Western sanctions stemming from its war with Ukraine. This distraction diminishes Russia’s focus on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Consequently, in the face of this Russian vacuum, India is viewed as a capable power that can play a pivotal role in the region due to its strategic and economic interests. Some in Armenia believe that Prime Minister Narendra Modi could persuade competing international and regional powers to reconsider their prolonged support for Azerbaijan and give Armenia some attention to help it overcome its military and economic challenges, facilitated by India’s strategic relationships with these powers.
Additionally, Armenia is actively working to reduce its dependence on Russia. Its efforts to strengthen ties with India reflect a desire for relative autonomy, particularly in security and defense matters. This pursuit intensified after the absence of Russian support during the September 2023 conflict, when Azerbaijan seized complete control of Nagorno-Karabakh, eroding Armenian trust in Moscow as a reliable ally. This loss of confidence has compelled Armenian leadership to look westward and seek new partnerships, particularly with India and Iran.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has exposed the decline of Russian support, especially regarding effective security guarantees for Armenia. Following this setback, and Russia’s reluctance to assist in resolving the dispute with Azerbaijan, Armenia announced a shift in its foreign policy. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan suspended Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and began reviewing its strategic relations with Russia while enhancing ties with the European Union. However, despite these maneuvers, the accompanying actions have been cautious, raising doubts about the Armenian authorities’ intentions and their concerns regarding potential Russian backlash.
Furthermore, Armenia is attempting to secure new security alliances. The rapprochement with India is part of a broader strategy aimed at diversifying partnerships and enhancing Armenia’s presence on the international stage. With regional tensions escalating, particularly with Baku, Yerevan seeks to strengthen its defense capabilities through cooperation with New Delhi, especially as India has emerged as a preferred supplier of advanced military equipment. This collaboration has enabled Armenia to diversify its arms sources, reducing reliance on a single supplier and thereby increasing its strategic strength in the region. Nevertheless, Armenia is cautious not to repeat past mistakes by overly depending on one ally. In this regard, a trilateral defense partnership between Armenia, India, and France may present a strategic option for Yerevan.
India, on its part, is eager to expand its international economic influence. The country seeks to bolster its international trade, particularly through the South Caucasus, establishing new trade routes to European markets. In this context, collaboration with Armenia represents an opportunity to enhance the international transport corridor linking India with Eurasian and European markets via Iran and Armenia, thus overcoming traditional obstacles such as the conflict in Ukraine and issues in the Red Sea.
Moreover, Armenia aims to diversify its economic partnerships. The country needs to broaden its economic ties with globally influential nations, and cooperation with India is seen as a strategic opportunity to achieve this goal. This partnership also aims to increase the volume of trade between the two nations, which amounted to approximately $127 million in 2023. Both countries are exploring potential cooperation in various economic sectors, including information technology, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals, with the objective of elevating and expanding their trade exchange.
Armenia is also emerging as a market for Indian arms exports. New Delhi views Armenia not only as a pivotal point in its vision for the South Caucasus but also as a potential strategic partner in its burgeoning defense industry. This interest aligns with India’s ambition to become a net defense exporter, particularly as its defense exports have surged by 334% over the past five years, benefiting around 75 countries globally from India’s defense arsenal. Hence, India’s initiatives toward Yerevan are part of Prime Minister Modi’s ambitious campaign to triple defense exports, aiming to boost military manufacturing products from nearly $3 billion in 2024 to over $10 billion under the “Make in India” initiative by 2028-2029.
Armenia is keen to have India sign a strategic partnership agreement to elevate their existing defense cooperation to a new level. Notably, Indian defense exports to Armenia now account for approximately 90% of Armenia’s total arms imports, which include drones, radar systems, and more.
In addition to defense and economic cooperation, the relationship between India and Armenia encompasses cultural aspects as well. The Indian diaspora constitutes the second-largest group of foreign citizens in Armenia, following the Russian community, which could reshape the local labor market. According to the Armenian government’s statistical committee (Armstat), Armenia is experiencing an increasing influx of Indian nationals, with around 54,600 Indians entering the country in 2023, a rise of approximately 21,600 compared to 2022.
In conclusion, Indian-Armenian cooperation is poised to advance to a strategic partnership level, contributing to India’s focus on the South Caucasus region, particularly in light of Armenia’s crucial role in this area and the planned trade corridors. This partnership will likely enhance defense, economic, and technological cooperation between the two countries, which are all prominent features of their growing ties. Additionally, this collaboration will bolster India’s capacity to counter the trilateral alliance between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan, aligning with India’s ambitious plans to play a more significant role on both regional and international stages.
