On September 1, 2024, thousands of supporters of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador gathered in Mexico City to back his judicial reform plan. Obrador used the rally to continue his aggressive rhetoric against Washington, which has expressed opposition to the plan. Obrador stated, “Let our friends and neighbors in the United States understand this.”
These remarks followed the Mexican president’s announcement on August 27, 2024, to freeze relations with the U.S. and Canadian embassies—though not with the two nations themselves—after their ambassadors criticized proposed judicial reforms that would have judges elected by popular vote. At the same time, he reassured that U.S.-Mexico relations would remain unaffected, likely an attempt to ease concerns about potential impacts on trade relations between Mexico and its northern neighbor.
Despite the fact that these reforms, if passed, would remove more than 5,000 judges from their positions, from the Supreme Court to local courts, Obrador argued that the reforms are necessary to prevent corruption and rulings that allow drug traffickers to go free. However, others see these measures—citing a series of his attacks on judges who have ruled against some of his plans—as a pretext to undermine judicial independence and strengthen the influence of the national political movement led by the Mexican president.
Reasons for Tension
The tension in U.S.-Mexico relations stems from several key factors:
U.S. Criticism of Judicial Reforms in Mexico: A primary reason for the current tension between the U.S. and Mexico is President Obrador’s plan to reform Mexico’s judicial system. Obrador seeks to amend the constitution to have judges elected by popular vote rather than appointed by the Mexican government. The U.S. views this step as a threat to Mexican democracy, as it could lead to the politicization of the judiciary and weaken its independence, which is a fundamental pillar of democracy and crucial for upholding the rule of law. The U.S. embassy in Mexico has expressed various concerns about the issues that could arise if judges were elected through popular vote. A memo from the U.S. embassy in Mexico emphasized that while Washington supports the concept of judicial reform in Mexico, it has significant concerns that electing judges through popular vote would neither address judicial corruption nor strengthen the judicial authority of the Mexican government.
Increasing Illegal Immigration from Mexico to the U.S.: The issue of illegal immigration across the southern border, which many Americans see as a national security problem, remains a constant source of tension between the U.S. and Mexico. Economic disparities, violence, and lack of opportunities have driven millions of Mexicans to migrate to the U.S. in search of a better life. According to the Pew Research Center, as of 2020, there were nearly 11 million people born in Mexico living in the U.S., both legally and illegally. There are also complaints from the Mexican side about the treatment and detention conditions of migrants, including incidents where U.S. border patrol agents have disposed of migrants’ personal belongings. U.S. political rhetoric has often portrayed Mexican migrants negatively, contributing to xenophobia and stereotypes against Mexicans. The approach of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, including the proposal to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and demand that Mexico pay for it, escalated tensions, leading to diplomatic spats and protests from the Mexican government.
Escalating Mutual Criticism: Tensions between the two countries have escalated due to exchanges of statements between U.S. and Mexican officials. U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar publicly criticized President Obrador’s judicial reform efforts, calling them a significant threat to democracy in Mexico and warning that they could undermine U.S.-Mexico trade relations by eroding trust in the Mexican legal system and encouraging drug cartels to exploit politicized and inexperienced judges. President Obrador angrily responded to these criticisms, viewing them as interference in Mexico’s internal affairs and announcing a halt in relations with the U.S. embassy in Mexico.
Drug Trafficking and Organized Crime: Drug trafficking and organized crime are additional sources of tension between Mexico and the U.S. The U.S. demand for illegal drugs has fueled a multibillion-dollar drug industry in Mexico, controlled by drug cartels. These cartels are responsible for violence, corruption, and instability within Mexico, posing a threat to U.S. national security. The U.S. government has supported Mexico’s efforts to combat drug trafficking through initiatives like the Mérida Initiative, providing funding, training, and equipment to Mexican security forces. However, the military approach has often been criticized for escalating violence and human rights abuses. The flow of firearms from the U.S. to Mexico, which contributes to gang violence, is another contentious issue, with Mexican authorities accusing the U.S. of not doing enough to curb the illegal arms trade.
Differences in Trade and Economic Policy: Despite the close and enduring economic relationship between the U.S. and Mexico, there are several trade and economic disputes between the two countries. These disputes stem from a wide range of issues, including tariffs, trade policies, regulations, and economic conditions. The U.S. has raised concerns about Mexican labor practices and environmental regulations, leading to threats of tariffs. On the other hand, Mexico has expressed concerns about U.S. protectionist policies that threaten its exports. The U.S. has demanded stricter rules of origin and stronger labor protections, which Mexico views as an attempt to limit its competitive advantage.
Wide-ranging Implications
The tensions between Mexico and the U.S. have several far-reaching implications, including:
Economic Impacts of Trade Disputes: Tensions in economic and trade relations between the U.S. and Mexico have led to growing uncertainty in the economic relationship between the two countries, affecting trade and investment flows. Trade disputes over tariffs and trade practices can disrupt supply chains and impact businesses that rely on cross-border trade. Economic and trade tensions have led to reciprocal tariffs, increasing the cost of certain goods and negatively affecting consumers and businesses in both the U.S. and Mexico. This has caused economic pressures and higher operational costs.
Damage to the U.S.’s Global Image: The focus of former President Donald Trump’s and current President Joe Biden’s administrations on border security and a strict stance against illegal immigration has affected the U.S.’s global image, especially with its human rights violations, such as family separations and the detention of migrants in harsh conditions. These policies have been criticized by human rights organizations. The U.S. rhetoric on immigration has also increased anti-immigrant sentiments and xenophobia within the country, leading to social polarization and incidents of hate crimes against Mexican and other Latin American communities in the U.S.
Impact on Mexico’s National Security: The military approach to combating drug trafficking has increased violence in Mexico, with thousands of lives lost annually due to violence linked to organized crime. The flow of weapons from the U.S. to Mexico exacerbates this violence, creating a vicious cycle of insecurity. These security issues have strained diplomatic relations and required ongoing cooperation between the U.S. and Mexican governments.
Exacerbation of Diplomatic Crises Between the U.S. and Mexico: Tensions over issues like immigration, trade, security, and proposed judicial reforms have led to diplomatic strains that could affect bilateral cooperation on various fronts. Diplomatic spats, such as those related to funding the U.S. border wall and tariffs, could hinder constructive dialogue and collaboration on critical issues like economic development, climate change, and regional stability.
A Delicate Balance
In conclusion, the current tensions between Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s announcement to freeze relations with the U.S. and Canadian embassies—after their ambassadors criticized proposed judicial reforms that would have judges elected by popular vote—reflect the complexities of contemporary international relations, where national sovereignty and domestic sensitivities play a significant role. Overcoming these challenges requires a delicate balance between addressing internal challenges and maintaining positive relations with international partners.
