On September 9, 2024, the Saudi capital, Riyadh, hosted strategic dialogue meetings between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and several other countries on the sidelines of the 161st ministerial meeting of the GCC. The seventh joint ministerial meeting for strategic dialogue between the GCC and Russia was held with the attendance of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Another joint ministerial meeting for strategic dialogue between the GCC and India took place with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and the joint ministerial meeting between the GCC and Brazil featured Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira. This article discusses the most important implications and messages from these strategic dialogues and explores the future of Gulf relations with these three countries in light of the meetings’ outcomes.
Significance and Partners:
These meetings reflect two important realities for the Gulf Cooperation Council states:
The increasing international importance of the Gulf states on the global stage. This growing significance is prompting major and emerging global powers to enhance their cooperation with the Gulf, benefiting from the region’s sources of power in the international system. These sources are diverse—some traditional, such as the well-known oil resources, while others are newer and linked to the active policies Gulf states are now implementing, which have made them key players in numerous international and regional issues. Among the most important elements of Gulf power are:
A. Control over global energy sources: The Gulf states are some of the world’s largest exporters of oil and natural gas, and their decisions regarding production and exports have a substantial impact on the global economy. Importantly, this influence in energy markets is not limited to fossil fuels but also extends to clean energy markets, where Gulf investments have been growing significantly, both within the GCC states and globally.
B. The strength of the Gulf economy: The Gulf economy has been witnessing remarkable growth in both its power and global standing. According to the Secretary-General of the GCC, Jassim Al-Budaiwi, in September 2023, the combined economies of the six Gulf states now rank eighth in the world in terms of size, with a GDP exceeding $2.4 trillion, and this figure is expected to rise to $6 trillion by 2050.
The total value of sovereign wealth funds in the six states stands at $3.225 trillion. This immense economic power encourages cooperation with these states from other nations.
C. Influential role in global policies: The Gulf states have become major players in various regional and global issues. Examples include the UAE’s key role in successful prisoner exchange deals between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the positive contributions of other Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, in resolving crises in the region, from Gaza to Sudan, Yemen, and Libya. Additionally, the humanitarian contributions of the Gulf states are globally impactful.
The Gulf states are committed to a policy of diversifying partners based on a “win-win for all” principle. These strategic dialogues with major or emerging global powers should be viewed in the context of the Gulf’s broader strategy of diversifying its international partnerships and preparing for a post-oil era. A key example of this diversification was the Gulf-China talks held in Riyadh on September 11, 2024, chaired by the Secretary-General of the GCC, Jassim Al-Budaiwi, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. These discussions covered regional and international issues and explored ways to enhance cooperation and follow through on the outcomes of the first Gulf-China summit held in Saudi Arabia in December 2022.
Hence, it can be observed that these Gulf dialogues are expanding to include all major global powers, including the United States, China, the European Union, Turkey, and Africa. Some of these strategic dialogues have already yielded important outcomes and free trade agreements, such as the free trade agreement with South Korea in December 2023, following a similar agreement with Pakistan signed three months earlier. The GCC previously signed free trade agreements with Singapore on December 15, 2008, and with the European Free Trade Association (comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein) on June 22, 2009, and with New Zealand on October 31, 2009. On September 8, 2023, the GCC approved an extension of its joint action plan with Japan from 2024 to 2028. Current negotiations aim to sign free trade agreements with the European Union, Turkey, China, Japan, India, Russia, and Australia.
A Promising Future:
There is no doubt that any strategic dialogue between two countries or blocs begins with a shared recognition of significant mutual interests that need to be institutionalized to maximize benefits. This is true for the Gulf’s strategic dialogues with Russia, India, and Brazil, and the future of these relations can be outlined as follows:
Gulf-Russian Dialogue: Russia is a major international player, being the largest oil producer outside OPEC and engaging in constructive dialogue with the Gulf and other OPEC countries to stabilize global oil markets through the OPEC+ group. Russia is also one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, with veto power, and holds the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads. Its military ranks second globally, and it is the largest country by land area, covering northern Asia and about 40% of Europe. These facts highlight the importance of strategic dialogue between the Gulf and Moscow, especially given several critical developments, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has entered a more dangerous phase that threatens to escalate out of control, and the growing Gulf-Russian coordination in global energy markets.
This strategic dialogue is significant not only for the two parties but for the world at large. It could allow the Gulf states to play a greater role in seeking to resolve the Ukraine crisis and prevent it from spiraling out of control, given the positive relations the Gulf has with both sides of the conflict. The successes achieved by the UAE in facilitating prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine could serve as a foundation for further efforts. This dialogue also opens the door to greater Gulf-Russian cooperation in global oil markets through OPEC+ and coordination on how to address the many crises in the region.
As a result, the Ukraine crisis and regional conflicts dominated discussions during the strategic dialogue between GCC foreign ministers and Russia in Riyadh on September 9, 2024. The meeting reviewed Gulf-Russian relations and explored ways to strengthen and develop them across various fields. It also addressed the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine crisis and international efforts to resolve it politically, while supporting all efforts to achieve international peace and security.
Gulf-Indian Dialogue: The Gulf has long-standing historical ties with India, stretching back centuries. These ties are diverse, spanning cultural, political, economic, and strategic dimensions. Although this strategic dialogue between GCC foreign ministers and their Indian counterpart is the first of its kind, considerable efforts have been made to institutionalize the relationship. The GCC’s ministerial council, during its 89th session in December 2004, approved entering into negotiations to establish a free trade area between the GCC and India. In August of the same year, both parties signed a framework agreement for economic cooperation, agreeing to enter into negotiations to establish a free trade area.
The economic dimension is the cornerstone of the strong relationship between the two sides. In 2022, trade between the GCC and India amounted to around $174 billion, accounting for approximately 11% of the GCC’s total trade. Gulf investments in India totaled around $6 billion, with projects spanning various sectors. Additionally, more than seven million Indians work in different Gulf countries, and their remittances are a significant contributor to India’s economy. In turn, India is of growing importance to the Gulf, as it boasts the world’s fastest-growing economy and is a large and increasingly important market for other countries.
Undoubtedly, the launch of this first strategic dialogue will enhance the positive prospects for their shared relationship, especially with some ambitious strategic projects on the horizon, including the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor. This project was signed during the G20 summit held in India in September 2023, and it is expected to bring significant benefits by serving as a key artery linking major industrial centers, manufacturing bases, logistical hubs, and key ports in the UAE.
Gulf-Brazilian Dialogue: Brazil is the sixth-largest economic power in the world and ranks seventh in terms of population, with over 210 million people in 2024. It is also the leading economic power in Latin America. These indicators highlight the importance of the first-ever strategic dialogue between this emerging global economic power and the GCC, which resulted in significant outcomes that will enhance future cooperation. Among these outcomes was the signing of a memorandum of understanding and a joint action plan for the period from 2024 to 2028. This plan includes several areas of cooperation, such as dialogue on political, security, economic, education, health, culture, media, youth, sports, agriculture, and food security issues.
Three Observations:
The strategic dialogues hosted in Riyadh between GCC foreign ministers and their counterparts from Russia, India, and Brazil suggest several important observations:
- The Gulf’s commitment to moving forward collectively and jointly to coordinate relationships and positions with emerging global powers, reinforcing unity and solidarity among the GCC states and their pursuit of common interests within the framework of Gulf joint action.
- The three countries involved in the dialogues—Russia, India, and Brazil—are members of the BRICS group, which recently agreed to include the UAE and Saudi Arabia, enhancing cooperation and coordination with these powers not only bilaterally but also within the BRICS framework.
- The Gulf’s independent foreign policy approach allows these countries the flexibility to operate internationally and gives them the opportunity to influence the course of international and regional issues, free from the pressures of polarization policies.
