At a time when at least half of the planet’s population (4 billion people) suffers from water shortages for at least one month a year, it is expected that by 2025, 1.8 billion people will face “absolute water scarcity,” according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. In response to this issue, the United Nations Environment Assembly issued a resolution in March calling on countries to better manage aquatic ecosystems and enhance cooperation in water management to support sustainable development. The World Water Day in 2024 also highlighted the critical role of water in promoting peace and stability or triggering conflict globally.
In this context, the importance of the March 2024 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, titled “Confronting Scarcity: Water and the Future of the Middle East,” written by Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS, becomes evident. The report presents the key findings of the Water Insecurity Experiences (WISE) measure developed by the center, focusing on the status of Middle Eastern countries in this scale and discussing various policies and experiences to address water scarcity in the region.
Water Security Scale:
The Water Insecurity Experiences (WISE) measures are innovative tools used by researchers and policymakers alike, aiming to enhance the capacity to measure lived experiences of water insecurity and translate this understanding into development actions that help implement policies. These measures have been applied globally through the IWISE scale in Gallup World Polls for 2020 and 2022, assessing human experiences with water—whether individuals can reliably access enough water for household use—and thus determining the degree and spread of water insecurity on a scale ranging from moderate to severe.
To date, representative national data have been collected for 40 countries, providing insight into those most affected by water insecurity. Cameroon leads with more than half of its population (63.9%) experiencing water insecurity, followed by Peru (48.2%) and Zambia (48.1%). On the other hand, large populous countries like India, China, and the United States enjoy high levels of water security. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), approximately a quarter of the populations in Algeria (28.9%), Egypt (27.2%), and Tunisia (22.9%) suffer from water insecurity, while 85.5% of Morocco’s population enjoys high water security.
Middle Eastern Challenges:
Despite the critical role of waterways in the Middle East, the researcher attributes the region’s water crisis to decades of mismanagement, population explosions, and rising temperatures. These factors have led to the degradation of land and depletion of the region’s limited water supplies. The challenges can be summarized as follows:
Rising Temperatures: By 2050, every country in the MENA region will face extremely high water stress. If temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius, the region will experience a 75% reduction in freshwater availability. By the end of the century, temperatures in many countries in the region are expected to rise by 5 degrees Celsius.
Cross-border Conflicts: The researcher notes that countries most vulnerable to climate change are also those affected by conflicts. Nations such as Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan are either engaged in internal conflicts or impacted by violence in neighboring countries. Water insecurity increases their vulnerability, potentially dragging them into further crises beyond their borders.
Economic Challenges: Middle Eastern countries face rising water insecurity amid economic challenges. The shift away from fossil fuels, combined with donor fatigue, has strained public finances. Additionally, climate-induced water scarcity could reduce GDP in Arab countries by up to 14% by 2050.
Despite these challenges, the researcher explains in detail that the primary reason for the current water crisis in the Middle East lies in the practices adopted during the era of water consumption expansion since the 1950s, coupled with rapid population growth, which led governments to expand agriculture. As a result, renewable freshwater resources have sharply declined.
On the other hand, Middle Eastern governments have built hundreds of dams, some of which are among the largest in the world. However, the challenges soon surfaced as water levels dropped and evaporation rates increased. After the era of water expansion, water scarcity emerged due to other factors, including:
Deterioration of Water Flows: Decades of unsustainable water use have dried up waterways and oases. Some rivers in the region are now mere remnants of their former flows. Untreated wastewater, gray water, and agricultural runoff have exacerbated water scarcity by polluting limited freshwater supplies.
Over-extraction of Groundwater: Governments continued searching for water to meet unsustainable demand, providing diesel subsidies that allowed farmers to pump groundwater from increasing depths. The region’s current water usage far exceeds the replenishment capacity of shallow and deep aquifers.
Decreasing Per Capita Water Availability: As water availability dwindles, people live on ever-decreasing amounts of available water, as reflected in daily water use measures that assess access to basic water needs. The situation is particularly dire for the poor and displaced populations in the region.
Inadequate Government Policies: Despite agriculture’s shrinking share in many Middle Eastern economies, it remains a significant water user. Additionally, water losses due to leaks and theft—known as “non-revenue water”—are substantial. Local authorities are often forced to cut water supplies due to increasing scarcity.
Social Consequences of Water Scarcity: Water rationing in agriculture pushes those dependent on the struggling sector to seek work elsewhere. Without a safety net, many migrate to cities in search of opportunities, exacerbating the challenges of rapid urban growth and contributing to unemployment and crime rates.
Trends in Addressing Scarcity:
While unsustainable water use practices have become ingrained in the social, political, and economic fabric of societies, there remains an opportunity for governments to adopt policies aimed at addressing water scarcity. These policies focus on both water management and increasing supply through the following measures:
Regulating Agricultural Water Demand: The researcher suggested that policies aimed at reducing agricultural water demand in regions of stable agriculture might represent a politically challenging starting point, but are necessary. She gave the example of the Water Innovations Technologies (WIT) project in Jordan, which helps families and farmers implement simple activities and solutions to save water. The cost of each activity was divided by the amount of water saved to determine the cost-effectiveness of each cubic meter of water saved. This figure was about 170 times higher for agricultural investments than for domestic investments.
Utilizing Technology: Drip irrigation and sensors that precisely determine when soil needs more water contribute to efficient water usage. Though seemingly complex, these offer relatively low-tech and cost-effective solutions. Agricultural weather stations also measure meteorological data such as temperature, rainfall, and air humidity.
Aligning Incentive Programs with Restrictions: Simply imposing restrictions on water consumption is insufficient. It is clear that incentives to encourage water conservation are crucial, especially for farmers. Providing continued support for farmers who use water-saving systems is essential in the short term. Additionally, supporting crops that consume less water may also be necessary to shift away from more water-intensive crops.
Adopting Hydroponic and Vertical Farming Methods: These methods are also promising, enabling farmers to use 80-99% less water than traditional open-field farming. If these energy-intensive practices can be powered by renewable energy, they may be scaled up effectively.
Using Treated Water: Reusing treated wastewater is another politically feasible solution. Treating wastewater and greywater helps protect freshwater supplies, increases water availability for non-domestic uses, improves health outcomes, and mitigates climate change impacts.
Building Trust for Progress: The researcher emphasized the need for more long-term planning and cooperation to improve water security within and between countries. This requires greater transparency from governments and increased awareness from citizens. Engaging civil society as an ally, rather than a threat, can yield positive results. Activists, scientists, and academics can contribute to reducing water waste and raising awareness about the need for change among local communities.
In conclusion, the report stated that while reforms in unsustainable water practices have a technical foundation, their implementation requires a political mindset that seeks to develop the right mix of investments, incentives, and restrictions for stakeholders in each context. Although the report acknowledged the challenges posed by decades of unsustainable behaviors and policies, as well as the limited time available, it stressed that governments, multilateral development institutions, and aid organizations must recognize that stability and the future of the Middle East depend on securing this essential element for human existence.
Natasha Hall, “Surviving Scarcity: Water and the Future of the Middle East”, CSIS, March 22, 2024,
