Uganda, located in East Africa, experienced a surge in internal unrest during July 2024, directly linked to a social media campaign initiated by youth groups calling for popular marches and a move towards the parliament on July 23, 2024, in protest against widespread corruption in the country. Despite the authorities’ refusal to issue an official permit for the demonstrators, they went ahead with their plans, resulting in the arrest of around 104 individuals on charges related to public order offenses, according to an official statement by the Ugandan police on July 27, 2024. Although the intensity of the protests has somewhat subsided, the events have left deep repercussions on the Ugandan scene that will continue in the coming period.
Influential Features
There are several key features associated with the popular protests that took place in Uganda in late July 2023, as follows:
Increasing Corruption Rates in State Institutions: High corruption rates in state institutions were the main driver behind the youth-led calls for marches and popular protests on July 23, 2024, against the ruling regime led by President Yoweri Museveni. Uganda suffers from widespread corruption within state institutions and many public officials are involved in such issues. This has resulted in Uganda being ranked 142 out of 180 countries in the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International. Consequently, an anti-corruption campaign first appeared on social media in late 2023, but the Ugandan authorities did not pay much attention to it, expecting it to be short-lived and limited in impact.
Warnings from the Ruling Regime Against Popular Demonstrations: This was exemplified in a televised address by President Yoweri Museveni on July 23, 2024, where he warned protesters against continuing their efforts to organize a protest march to the parliament against corruption, describing it as “playing with fire.” He emphasized that these planned protests would not be tolerated at all and indicated that it would hinder the country’s efforts to generate wealth. He also accused some of the organizers of working with foreign parties to create chaos in the country.
Increased Pressure on Political Opposition: This was evident when security forces closed the headquarters of the largest opposition party, the National Unity Platform, on July 22, 2024. They announced that this step was a precautionary measure against public mobilization before the planned protests. This was rejected by the party leader Robert Kyagulanyi, who issued a post on the social media platform “X,” stating that security forces had surrounded and raided the party headquarters and arrested many of its leaders violently. He also mentioned that the party was not part of organizing the protests that occurred on July 23, 2024, but supported and endorsed them.
Strict Measures by Ugandan Police Against Protests: The authorities did not issue any permits for the marches and protests, and when they occurred, the ruling regime deployed police and army personnel in the capital, Kampala, to control the situation. However, this did not prevent the protesters from starting their marches and protests, leading to the arrest of around 104 individuals on charges of disturbing public order and threatening it, according to a statement issued by the Ugandan police on July 27, 2024. It is noteworthy that this is the first time the police have announced the number of protesters arrested during demonstrations.
Spreading of Protests from Kenya to Uganda: The start of protests in Kenya, located on Uganda’s eastern border, from June 18, 2024, served as a catalyst for popular marches in Uganda. These protests are the largest in Kenya since President William Ruto took office after winning the 2022 elections. The protests began in opposition to the 2024 Finance Bill, which included tax increases, passed by the parliament on June 25, 2024, leading to intensified protests calling for reforms and accountability and eventually demanding the resignation of the ruling regime. These protests resulted in at least 50 deaths, around 413 injuries, and approximately 682 arbitrary arrests, according to the Kenyan National Human Rights Commission. These events led the Kenyan president to withdraw the new Finance Bill in late June 2024 and form a new government on July 20, 2024.
Potential Implications
There are several potential implications of the recent escalation of popular protests in Uganda, including:
Potential Expansion of Popular Protests Against the Ruling Regime: This is linked to the possibility of the ruling regime adopting some non-structural reforms to appease the protesters, similar to what happened in Kenya, such as holding corrupt officials accountable and reducing the number and salaries of parliamentarians. This is driven by the fear that the protests may expand to include more population segments, especially as English-speaking activists, mostly from the middle class, succeed in mobilizing poorer Ugandans through local languages.
Government Expansion in Restricting Political Mobilization Tools: The ruling regime is likely to move towards imposing more restrictions on social media, as it was the main starting point for the popular marches and protests that began on July 23, 2024. Other measures may include restricting the activities of opposition political parties and civil society organizations that can be influential in mass mobilization due to their human and social capital.
Continued Decline in the Political Legitimacy of the Ruling Regime: This is supported by President Yoweri Museveni’s long tenure in power since 1986, one of the longest in Africa. The dominance of one political party, the National Resistance Movement, has led to increasing popular criticism, especially among the youth, due to widespread misuse of public funds and failure to prosecute corrupt officials. Protests first emerged as a tool against the ruling regime in the late 2000s, notably with the “Walk to Work” protests in 2011 against high fuel prices. Protests have become a significant feature in Ugandan politics since 2017, continuing with the formation of the “People Power Our Power” movement by popular musician Bobi Wine in 2018.
Increasing International Pressure for Anti-Corruption Efforts: Some major powers have already taken actions against Uganda in this regard. The US government imposed sanctions on the Speaker of the Parliament, Anita Annet, and five other Ugandan officials over corruption charges related to the theft of thousands of metal roofing sheets meant for vulnerable communities in the Karamoja region in northeastern Uganda. The UK government also imposed sanctions on the Speaker of the Parliament and two prominent Ugandan legislators, Zahed Mary Kitutu and Agnes Nandutu, including travel bans and asset freezes under the UK’s Global Anti-Corruption Sanctions Regime.
Rising External Criticism of the Regime for Restricting Freedom of Assembly: For instance, Amnesty International issued a statement on July 25, 2024, criticizing the “harsh methods used by the Ugandan government against protesters during the marches on July 23, 2024,” and called for the immediate and unconditional release of all those arrested for exercising their right to peaceful assembly. Human Rights Watch (HRW) also accused the Ugandan government of “flagrant violence against the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression guaranteed by Uganda’s constitution and international law” and emphasized the need for the authorities to listen to the protesters’ concerns and demands.
In conclusion, the recent protests in Uganda indicate a growing gap between the ruling regime led by President Yoweri Museveni and the popular sectors, particularly the youth, due to structural issues in recent years, mainly widespread corruption, mismanagement, and lack of social and accountability justice. This will significantly impact the stability of political life in the foreseeable future, especially given the potential for the political administration to implement superficial “ineffective” reforms, as seen in Kenya, that do not address the root challenges on various fronts.
