Historically, Russia has not been a primary source of human migration; rather, it has been a destination for European migration throughout the 19th century. This changed in the 20th century, with multiple waves of emigration beginning in 1918 and continuing through the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. European nations have often leveraged these migrations and diaspora communities as tools to pressure Russian political regimes, hoping that these migrations could eventually transform Russia into a democratic ally of Europe.
In this context, the author Dmitry Gudkov and others discuss the “challenge and opportunity that new Russian expatriates face in Europe” in a study published by the French Institute of International Relations in June 2024. The study focuses on Russians currently residing in European countries, examining the benefits these groups have brought and the opportunities arising from Europe’s evolving stance toward “European Russians.”
Migration Trends and Their Causes
The study views Russia as an atypical European state that has expanded over past centuries in a manner similar to Western European nation-states. Russia extended its influence through various mechanisms, including settler colonialism in sparsely populated regions like Siberia and by leveraging its military superiority to dominate parts of the Global South, such as the Caucasus and Central Asia. However, Russia did not divide its territories into colonies; instead, it treated its empire’s expansion as internal colonization.
Throughout the 19th century, Russia was unique in hosting population flows from other European countries. Millions of people of Western European origin (around 2.2 million from Germany, Austria, and Hungary) migrated to Russia. Conversely, the emigration of ethnic Russians was rare due to strict penalties imposed by the empire, such as forced revocation of citizenship for those who stayed abroad for more than five years. Thus, Russia was a host nation for various European migration waves.
Russian emigration did not begin until the late 1910s and early 1920s, occurring in three major waves between 1918 and 1923, 1988 and 1998, and from 2012 to 2014. These waves were driven by several factors, including class hostility declared by the Bolshevik government in 1922, economic and social factors during the second wave, and ideological and economic conditions during the third. These policies resulted in two significant outcomes for Russia:
- Demographic Losses: Successive Russian emigrations led to demographic losses estimated between 4 and 11 million people. The fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s triggered further emigration waves, with around 37 million people living outside the Russian Federation, including at least 4 million in EU member states.
- Growing Pro-Migration Sentiment: Repeated migration waves from Russia fostered a pro-migration sentiment, particularly since 2012. Russian emigrants have established various associations and organizations abroad, potentially laying the groundwork for transforming Russia into a Western-style democracy after Putin’s rule, especially since many who left after the war in Ukraine in February 2022 have become “fighters against the regime.”
Characteristics and Orientations of Migrants
The largest number of departures from Russia coincided with the initial phase of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, from February to November 2022. However, migration waves had been growing since Vladimir Putin’s return to power in 2012, which marked the shift toward a strong dictatorship. Russian official statistics recorded a sharp increase in the number of permanent emigrants, from 117,000 in 2010 to over 200,000 by 2014. The annexation of Crimea and rising tensions between Russia and the West sustained this trend, with about 2 million people leaving the country between 2012 and 2021. Estimates suggest this number exceeded 3 million by 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This migration trend has resulted in significant demographic and social shifts, including:
- Gender Changes: The abnormal increase in Russian migration led to gender changes. During “classical migration,” the ratio of women to men was around 53% to 47%, but with the “mass exodus,” it shifted to 37% to 63%.
- Age Structure Changes: Migrants’ ages also varied significantly. Before 2013, 56% of those leaving Russia were aged between 18 and 44 years. After 2022, this share exceeded 83%, making the emigrant community increasingly dominated by younger males.
- Declining Loyalty and National Identity: Russian emigrants formed a relatively “tight-knit” community in their new host countries, maintaining weak ties with Russia or severing them completely. In contrast, many recent migrants still consider themselves part of Russian society, even if they have accepted new passports without renouncing their Russian citizenship. However, with the massive migration of 2022-2023, there has been a noticeable trend of renouncing citizenship, with around 4,400 Russians doing so in the first nine months of 2023.
- Changing Host Destinations: The destinations chosen by Russian emigrants have also shifted. The “first wave” of migration, primarily from 1922 to 1923, saw more than 80% of emigrants settle in Western Europe. After the Russian-Ukrainian war, about two-thirds of Russian migrants settled in former Soviet republics, Turkey, Serbia, and Montenegro, while 10% to 15% moved to Southeast Asia, including Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia.
- Adaptability: Most Russians who have left the country possess high social and spatial mobility, facilitating their integration into host societies. Among those who migrated to Europe, only half express a desire to return to Russia; 11% say they will do so regardless, while 37% say they might if the situation changes—this includes factors like the absence of the threat of mobilization, the end of the war, or the complete dismantling of Putin’s regime. Moreover, about 75% of emigrants aspire to obtain citizenship in their new countries, suggesting a reevaluation of their desire to return to Russia in the medium term.
Changing Economic Dynamics
The influx of Russians in 2022 has altered the economic dynamics of several destination countries. For instance, Armenia, which saw up to 110,000 Russians move there in 2022, experienced GDP growth rates of 12.6% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023. Georgia’s GDP grew by 10.4% in 2022 and 7.0% in 2023, while Kyrgyzstan’s grew by 7.0% and 6.2%, respectively. The arrival of Russians has driven up the value of these countries’ currencies by 11% to 23% against the U.S. dollar and spurred a boom in housing construction and the services sector.
To capitalize on these new trends, several countries have started creating favorable conditions for the migrants, such as Armenia, which hopes to retain them and encourage them to start local businesses. Cyprus, as a host model for Russian migrants, has adapted its legislation to the recent migration waves, viewing them as an economic opportunity to boost the Cypriot economy. The taxes paid by these migrants contribute significantly to the national budget, and their participation in the country’s economic and technological development is relatively important.
In contrast to Russia’s “near abroad” countries, most EU member states have not paid much attention to this. In Europe, a debate has arisen about banning Russians from buying real estate and imposing restrictions on opening bank accounts. Opening and maintaining cryptocurrency accounts has also become taboo. Consequently, the number of long-term visa applications, residency permits, and political asylum requests from Russians seeking to regularize their status is increasing much faster than the number of approved petitions in the EU. In 2021, 82,900 residence permits were issued to Russian citizens, out of more than 91,000 requests. In 2023, this number could increase by 20% to 30%.
Conclusion
The waves of Russian migration to the EU represent a significant gain in human capital for host countries. The migration waves following Putin’s escalation against Europe are characterized by financial capabilities and skills that facilitate their integration into European societies in the foreseeable future. They positively contribute to the economies of host communities by creating a large Russian community that fosters partnerships with European countries. This is a strategy adopted by several European nations, such as Cyprus, which have implemented balanced policies aimed at accepting and integrating migrants into society.
The study concludes that these Russian migrants represent an opportunity for the Western world to weaken Russia as a geopolitical rival and secure significant economic benefits by welcoming Russian migrants over the long term and integrating them into these societies. This approach could pose a challenge to Putin’s regime, serving as a significant pressure point comparable to economic sanctions on Russia, which often backfire on Europe. Additionally, “European Russians” could become a tool for potential future reconciliation between Europe and Russia. The study recommends the importance of integrating Russian migrants into European societies rather than rejecting or marginalizing them by easing the requirements for Russian migrants to obtain documents that allow them to reside permanently in the EU.
Source:
Gudkov, D., Inozemtsev, V., & Nekrasov, D., The New Russian Diaspora: Europe’s Challenge and Opportunity, French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), 2024.
