Côte d’Ivoire is experiencing political tensions resulting from escalating confrontations between the ruling regime and the opposition, particularly in light of the return of former Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo to the political scene and his establishment of a new political party to contest the presidential elections scheduled for next year (2025). The situation has been exacerbated by the swift support Gbagbo has garnered from various opposition political parties, prompting President Alassane Ouattara’s regime to implement several countermeasures aimed at pressuring and weakening the opposition. The severity of these developments is highlighted by concerns of a repeat of the crisis that accompanied the last presidential election in October 2020, which saw widespread protests against Ouattara’s third-term bid. At that time, the inability of the ruling party and the opposition, which had formed a political front led by Henri Konan Bédié, to find common ground on contentious issues led to violent clashes across the country.
Worrisome Indicators
Several indicators point to a tense political landscape in Côte d’Ivoire ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for 2025, adding to the challenges facing the Ivorian president. These indicators can be outlined as follows:
Formation of Opposition Alliances Against Ouattara’s Regime: This was evident when four political parties and a civil society platform announced, about 16 months before the presidential elections, the formation of an unprecedented alliance against President Alassane Ouattara’s regime. The new opposition platform, named “Rally for Peaceful Transition in Côte d’Ivoire” (RAP-CI), was officially presented on June 12, 2024, in Abidjan during a press conference that gathered key figures in Ivorian politics, including the leader of the Ivorian Popular Front and former Prime Minister Pascal Affi N’Guessan, former First Lady and leader of the Capable Generations Movement Simone Gbagbo, and former President Laurent Gbagbo, who led the country from 2000 to 2011.
Expansion of the Opposition Base: Several new contenders have emerged to challenge President Ouattara, including Tidjane Thiam, the former CEO of Credit Suisse, who became the head of the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) in December 2023 after the death of its former leader Henri Konan Bédié in August 2023. The party, which was once the sole legal party in the country and ruled for decades after independence from France in 1960, hopes to return to power through its candidate after losing it in a 1999 coup. Additionally, the return of former President Laurent Gbagbo to Ivorian politics after his 2019 acquittal by the International Criminal Court of war crimes charges related to the 2010-2011 post-election crisis and his return to Côte d’Ivoire in 2021 signals his intent to run in the 2025 presidential elections. He founded a new party, the African People’s Party – Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI), in 2021. Although President Ouattara granted him a presidential pardon in 2022 for a 20-year prison sentence imposed in 2018 for his alleged “robbery” of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) in 2011, the conviction was not annulled. This legally disqualifies him from running in the elections. After a Central Committee meeting in March 2024, the spokesperson for Gbagbo’s party, Katinan Koné, announced that Gbagbo had agreed to lead the party in the 2025 presidential elections. The party also stated that it would seek to have Gbagbo’s name reinstated on the electoral roll after it was removed following the 2018 conviction.
Gbagbo’s Persistent Popularity: Despite his lengthy absence from active politics, Laurent Gbagbo has retained a substantial base of supporters. This can be attributed to several factors, including his symbolic break with Côte d’Ivoire’s colonial legacy, making him popular among younger generations, his opposition to the one-party rule established by Félix Houphouët-Boigny after independence, and his association with the establishment of a multiparty democracy. Additionally, Gbagbo has historically represented the concerns of the lower classes and underdeveloped regions, including his hometown in the southwest and parts of the Liberia border region. His eloquence and ability to rally nationalist sentiments in a country with a large immigrant population from West Africa further bolstered his support. Many of his most loyal followers come from evangelical backgrounds, viewing him as a Christian figure whose acquittal and return were seen as divine intervention. Gbagbo’s popularity was evident in the enthusiastic reception he received upon his return to Côte d’Ivoire in 2021, particularly in his village, in the working-class neighborhoods of Abidjan, and in the positive response of the African National Front (FPP), led by Dabi Nogbo, to his call for opposition unity in July 2024 during his first public address since announcing his candidacy for the 2025 presidential elections. The FPP urged Ivorian citizens to join this effort for Côte d’Ivoire’s development and liberation from the ruling regime. Representatives of the PPA-CI in Paris also organized a large demonstration on April 13, 2024, demanding that Laurent Gbagbo’s name be reinstated on the electoral roll.
The Ivorian Popular Front’s Persistent Opposition: Despite signing a partnership agreement with the ruling party in May 2023 aimed at promoting national reconciliation, social cohesion, and democracy, the opposition front led by former Prime Minister Pascal N’Guessan has intensified its criticisms of the government as the 2025 presidential elections approach. In early April 2024, N’Guessan announced his intention to run in the upcoming elections. N’Guessan, a staunch critic of President Ouattara, refused to recognize Ouattara’s controversial re-election for a third term in the 2020 presidential elections and participated in declaring a “National Transitional Council” to replace the ruling regime. This led to his arrest in November 2020, his detention for nearly two months, and his trial along with other opposition members on charges of “conspiracy against state authority,” “rebellion,” “assassination,” and “acts of terrorism.”
Accusations of Approving a U.S. Military Base: The Ivorian opposition condemned the government’s approval of the redeployment of U.S. military forces in Côte d’Ivoire following their withdrawal from Niger, without prior parliamentary consent. The opposition accused the government of engaging in secret negotiations to establish this future U.S. base in Odienné in the northwest of the country within a tense regional geopolitical context, asserting that this move would undermine national and regional security as well as state sovereignty. Reports also suggest that Germany is considering relocating all its forces previously stationed in Niger to Côte d’Ivoire. Although the official details regarding the size, personnel, and operational timeline of the U.S. base are not yet known, recent reports from Jeune Afrique indicate that the base will host not only American soldiers but also advanced military equipment, including reconnaissance drones. Despite Odienné’s inland location, it offers a strategic site for surveillance and intervention across West Africa.
Rising Tensions with Regional Neighbors: Côte d’Ivoire’s relations with neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have soured. Relations with Mali deteriorated after the Malian regime arrested about 50 Ivorian soldiers in July 2022, accusing them of destabilizing the country while they were supporting a UN mission unit. Although the soldiers were released in early 2023, the relationship between the two countries remains unstable. In a video posted on social media on August 14, 2024, former military official and influential member of Mali’s National Transitional Council Minkoro Kané accused Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara and Beninese President Patrice Talon of submitting to French interests and conspiring against Mali and the Sahel. He called for strategies to eliminate them due to their attempts to overthrow Mali’s leaders. Regarding Burkina Faso, transitional leader Ibrahim Traoré accused Côte d’Ivoire during a meeting with political forces in July 2024 of establishing an operations center in Abidjan aimed at destabilizing Burkina Faso and supporting armed groups. These allegations come amidst escalating tensions between the two countries, following an exchange of gunfire between soldiers from both nations in a border area in March 2024. Reports also indicate that an Ivorian military helicopter was fired upon by a group of Burkinabe soldiers. Subsequently, several Ivorian military vehicles—including light and armored vehicles and an ambulance—appeared on the border with Burkina Faso on May 16, 2024, exacerbating tensions between the two countries. The Ivorian army did not officially clarify the situation, but the deployment was perceived by Burkinabe authorities as a “new provocation.” A source close to the Ivorian army confirmed that the vehicles did not cross the border.
Internal Social Issues: Rising living costs and increasing government debt top the list of social challenges. According to International Monetary Fund data, Côte d’Ivoire’s gross government debt as a percentage of GDP reached about 57.1% in 2023. In March 2024, Ahua Don Mello, Executive Vice President of the PPA-CI, criticized the government’s rising debt of about 25,000 billion CFA francs, noting that only 3,000 billion had been invested in infrastructure, representing roughly 15% of the total debt. He called on the government to clarify its spending, emphasizing the seriousness of this situation, which undermines real development opportunities. Additionally, corruption and bribery rates remain high in the country, as highlighted in Transparency International’s annual reports. In March 2023, civil society organization SOS Justice revealed that the police, justice sector, education, and public administration were the most corrupt institutions in Côte d’Ivoire, with the average bribe amounting to around 140,000 CFA francs, or approximately $230. This has further widened social inequalities, fueling resentment towards the government.
The Ivorian President’s Health: Alassane Ouattara’s health is a source of concern in the run-up to the upcoming elections. The president is now 82 years old, and while the Ivorian constitution places a two-term limit on presidents, his supporters had earlier pressed for his re-election for a third term in 2020, arguing that the new 2016 constitution reset the clock on previous terms. Consequently, Ouattara is likely to face challenges similar to those faced by other African leaders who remained in power despite their advanced age. As such, the political situation in the country remains unpredictable, especially since Côte d’Ivoire does not have a vice-presidency following the resignation of its last vice-president, Daniel Kablan Duncan, in July 2020.
In Conclusion:
The pressures on President Alassane Ouattara, driven by escalating political, economic, and social issues, pose significant challenges to his efforts to preserve political stability and foster economic development in Côte d’Ivoire, especially as opposition forces and political rivals are expected to intensify their demands for the current regime’s departure. As such, these pressures are likely to continue growing in the coming months, further complicating the path to a peaceful and stable future for Côte d’Ivoire.
