In this article, we explore the context surrounding the establishment of the West African Confederation between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, and the factors supporting its formation amidst the ongoing crises in the Sahel region. The key speaker assumed that the creation of this entity would have broad repercussions on security, politics, and the economy, further complicating the situation in the Sahel.
The emergence of the West African Confederation between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso is linked to several motivating factors, which are as follows:
The Worsening of Divisions within ECOWAS: The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a political organization and regional economic union comprising 15 West African countries, has faced multiple divisions due to growing dissatisfaction among West African citizens. Many feel that the bloc is not doing enough, particularly regarding development and economic integration. This is evident in the repeated failures to launch the regional currency, the Eco, and the organization’s declining capacity to handle political changes in several West African countries.
Escalating Conflicts and Accusations within ECOWAS: ECOWAS is experiencing internal conflicts and divisions, especially between two blocs: the Anglophone bloc, led by countries like Nigeria, Ghana, and Sierra Leone, and the Francophone bloc, which includes Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These two groups exchange accusations, with each blaming the other for the organization’s crises. The Francophone bloc is often accused of being a tool used by France to hinder ECOWAS’s work.
Complicating the Security Situation in the Sahel: Several security factors have contributed to the rise of the West African Confederation. In recent years, terrorism has been the main driver of these crises. The three confederation countries are among the most affected by terrorism. Mali faces terrorist attacks and kidnappings, with the security situation deteriorating in the north, center, and increasingly in the south. Similarly, Niger is grappling with multiple security crises, including terrorist activities by groups like Boko Haram, ISIS in West Africa, and al-Qaeda affiliates like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin and ISIS in the Sahel. Burkina Faso has been facing insecurity since 2014, exacerbated by its shared borders with Mali and Niger. For instance, about 60% of Burkina Faso’s territory was under terrorist control when the military took over in a January 2022 coup.
ECOWAS’s Clash with the New Military Regimes: ECOWAS’s policies following the coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso accelerated the formation of the West African Confederation. The organization issued broad threats against these three nations, with Niger being a particularly contentious case. After the military ousted the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, ECOWAS responded with strong threats, including the possibility of military intervention to remove the military council. The organization also imposed severe sanctions on Niger for over six months.
Proximity and Shared Perspectives Among the Confederation Countries: The geographical closeness of the three countries, along with their shared borders and common challenges, contributed to the formation of the new confederation. The recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger occurred amidst rising anti-Western and specifically anti-French sentiment among the Sahel’s populations. Consequently, the military councils in these three countries derive their legitimacy and support from these anti-French sentiments.
Impact of International Competition in the Sahel and West Africa: International competition in the Sahel and West Africa has also played a role in the emergence of the new confederation. There has been growing resentment in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso toward Western influence in the region, prompting these countries to seek new allies. The military regimes in these three nations emphasize the importance of maintaining their sovereignty without external interference and fostering partnerships based on equality. As a result, the confederation countries have leaned toward new partners, such as Russia, China, Turkey, and Iran, to address their security and development challenges.
The Continued Deterioration of Security in Libya: The collapse of security in Libya in 2011 was a major factor in the security decline in the Sahel. The proliferation of arms and the rapid movement of rebel movements and armed groups across the shared borders between Libya and the Sahel, especially Mali, have destabilized the region. The key speaker highlighted the close link between stability in Libya and the stability of Mali, Niger, and Chad. With the collapse of the Libyan regime, Libyan borders became a main route for arms and fighters, exacerbating instability in the Sahel and boosting the activities of extremist groups. Additionally, ethnic connections between Libya and these countries have intensified the effects of the region’s destabilization.
Regional Decline
Moving on to the consequences of the establishment of the Confederation of West African States, there are several key aspects to consider:
Undermining Regional Integration in the Sahel and West Africa:
The founding of the Confederation did not stem from the collapse of ECOWAS but rather reinforced regional fragmentation in West Africa and the Sahel. The proliferation of regional unions, each taking on the same responsibilities, does not serve the local and regional needs of West Africa, nor does it promote the unity and integration of its peoples. The danger of this development lies in the fact that the military councils of the three member states (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) regard ECOWAS as a threat to their sovereignty due to its efforts to impose sanctions in response to military coups and demands for a return to constitutional rule.
Negative Impact on Security in the Sahel and West Africa:
The writer assumes that breaking away from ECOWAS undermines security integration, particularly in effectively managing and monitoring borders in West Africa’s strategic areas. The deteriorating security situation in all three confederate states presents a significant challenge to the legitimacy of the ruling military councils, especially when considering recent developments. Armed rebel groups and terrorist organizations affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS have gained strength since the military councils came to power, despite promises from these political regimes to address security needs with their strategies and international partners.
While the security situation in northern Mali and its border communities with Mauritania and Algeria has started to negatively affect relations with these neighboring North African countries, the growing insecurity may fuel discontent among the populations and soldiers in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. This is particularly concerning given fears of new coup attempts, even in countries that have already experienced them.
Difficulty in Combating Terrorism Due to Border Overlaps:
The overlapping borders between the region’s countries, especially the confederate states, complicates the fight against terrorism and the organized armed presence, without the cooperation of ECOWAS states and vice versa. ECOWAS cannot fully succeed without these three states, which are centrally located in the Sahel and occupy strategic positions. These factors prompted the ECOWAS Commission to propose granting the three confederate states observer status and allowing them to attend some meetings of the organization.
Using the Confederation to Bolster Regime Legitimacy:
The military regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso seek to enhance their credibility at both the regional and local levels through the establishment of the confederation. These regimes present themselves to the domestic public as national governments defending their countries’ interests and avoiding any external pressures.
Potential for New Military Coups in the Region:
According to Dr. Aladi, the new confederation might encourage other parties to carry out military coups and seek alternative regional alliances to ECOWAS. The new confederation is viewed as a platform for coordinating diplomatic efforts and strengthening relations with African partners who are hostile to ECOWAS. Additionally, the confederation’s invitation for new members could spur military coups or unconstitutional access to power in the region.
Increased Dependence on Russian Military Support:
The announcement of the Sahel Confederation cannot be separated from the international competition in West Africa. The military councils in Mali and Burkina Faso have ended European and international missions, citing worsening security conditions exacerbated by the arrival of these Western missions in the region. Some of these missions, particularly those backed by France like the G5 Sahel, were accused of advancing French interests in the Sahel. Given the rising armed conflicts along the borders between Mali and Algeria and between Mali and Mauritania, it can be argued that relying on Russia or Wagner for military assistance may lead to further sanctions on these countries.
Russia has become the primary ally for these states in addressing security challenges and the energy crisis. Reports indicate there are about 2,000 Russian soldiers in Mali, including Wagner forces, as well as around 200 soldiers from the newly formed Africa Corps, created after the death of the Wagner leader. This corps includes about 200 soldiers in Burkina Faso and at least 100 soldiers in Niger. These forces in Mali are also participating in offensive operations against terrorism and armed militants. In addition, private and state-owned Russian companies have signed agreements and memorandums of understanding with the confederate states since September 2023, covering civil and military cooperation, natural resource mining, and the construction of gold refineries and communications infrastructure.
However, this growing reliance on Russia also brings significant challenges. For example, relations between Russia and Mali have recently become strained, particularly after attacks on Malian and Russian soldiers in northern Mali near the Algerian border. This situation has raised concerns among Malians about who is responsible for managing operations, leading some countries to view Russia as a weak ally. In this context, total dependence on Russia seems insufficient to meet security needs, especially as Russia cannot provide everything these states require in terms of equipment, arms, and development needs. With the continued challenges of terrorism in northern Mali, this may negatively affect Russia’s relationship with the confederate states.
A Unified Front Between the Confederate States in Dealing with Other Countries:
The three confederate states have formed a united front in responding to other countries, including Western nations. One of the driving factors behind the confederation is the deterioration of relations between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger with the West, particularly France and the United States. As Western influence in the region declines, the influence of other parties like Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey increases.
It seems that the confederate states will adopt unified diplomatic positions in dealing with the international community, as evidenced by their rapprochement with Russia. Moreover, Mali, followed by Niger, severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine in August 2024.
Disruption of Economic Integration Projects in West Africa:
The separation from ECOWAS is likely to complicate ongoing economic integration and development projects, including efforts to establish the regional Eco currency. Economically, the emergence of the confederation does not serve West Africa’s growth, as African leaders currently represent only 3% of the global GDP, with West Africa accounting for less than 1%. The speaker noted that while the new confederation may offer significant economic opportunities for its members, given the weak economies and manufacturing sectors of the three countries, they collectively contribute only about 8% of ECOWAS’s GDP.
Complicating Freedom of Movement in the Sahel and West Africa:
Starting next January, citizens of the confederate states may need to apply for visas before traveling to neighboring ECOWAS countries where they used to reside or trade, while previously, they used the same passport under ECOWAS. This new situation threatens the cultural, social, economic, and educational ties in West Africa and the Sahel, which are vital for African integration.
Growing Calls for Reforms within ECOWAS:
The new confederation raises serious questions about the future of ECOWAS, prompting a pressing need for genuine internal reforms within the organization while maintaining its existence. The confederation also necessitates a reexamination of ECOWAS’s normative frameworks for dealing with political changes in member states and reevaluating the effects of sanctions and how they are imposed, as these sanctions often have counterproductive effects and harm societies.
A Complex Future
Forecasting the future of the West African Confederation reveals several key dimensions:
Increasing security and economic challenges for the confederation states: Despite the determination of the confederation countries to emphasize the importance of this new entity in strengthening relations and addressing shared challenges, it is unlikely that difficulties will ease for these nations. In fact, they may find themselves in a weaker position when dealing with their security crises. Generally, the confederation faces significant economic and security challenges due to its reliance on neighboring countries that have seaports and stronger economies.
The difficulty of returning to ECOWAS: The West African Confederation will aim to perform the same functions as ECOWAS. This makes it difficult for confederation countries to return to ECOWAS, although there have been attempts by ECOWAS to convince them to obtain observer status and attend some of the organization’s meetings.
Challenges in admitting new members to the confederation: In recent months, the confederation has tried to admit new members, with Guinea and Senegal being considered. However, over time, it has become apparent that these two nations will not join the nascent confederation. In Senegal, the new president and prime minister have called for reforms within ECOWAS, with the Senegalese government asserting that staying in the regional organization is the best option. This has led to a reduction in expectations about Senegal joining the confederation. In Guinea, ECOWAS managed to convince the ruling general to set a transitional period for elections in the coming months, which strengthens the country’s stability and diminishes the chances of joining the confederation.
In this context, it is worth noting that Togo, which was expected to join, has not shown any tangible moves in this direction. The current president of the confederation countries has also called for a return to ECOWAS. As a result, it seems that the only countries likely to join the confederation would be those experiencing military coups, which currently seems an unlikely prospect.
The survival of the confederation is tied to the continuation of ruling regimes in member states: The continuity of the confederation is linked to the persistence of the ruling regimes in its member states. The establishment of the confederation by military leaders in these countries suggests that they are unlikely to step down or organize elections anytime soon, especially given the extension of the transitional period in Burkina Faso to five years, delaying potential presidential elections until after 2029.
In conclusion, the announcement of the West African Confederation emerged in a complex context in the Sahel region and the broader West African area. The region faces significant security challenges, with the rise of terrorist organizations’ activities. Additionally, doubts are growing about ECOWAS’s ability to handle the various challenges facing the region’s countries. Naturally, the emergence of this new entity, which faces skepticism regarding its effectiveness in addressing security issues, was facilitated by the alignment of military regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso in their ideas and approaches, particularly their rejection of Western influence and search for alternative alliances.
