More than twenty years have passed since the September 11, 2001 attacks and the subsequent global war on terror led by the United States. The current terrorist landscape appears more complex. While the U.S. and its allies have inflicted significant losses on terrorist organizations over the past two decades, including the elimination of key leaders like Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, these losses have not eradicated the threat of terrorism entirely. Instead, terrorist organizations have adapted to the changing reality, innovating new mechanisms to enhance their presence and exploiting available opportunities.
This adaptability is evident in ISIS’s strategy following the collapse of its so-called caliphate with the fall of Baghuz in Syria in March 2019, and the subsequent announcement of al-Baghdadi’s death in October 2019. Instead of disappearing, the organization adopted a strategy of geographical mobility, seeking new areas to expand its influence.
Additionally, modern technology and the internet, which were not as widely available on the eve of 9/11, have allowed terrorist organizations to create a new presence and generate new patterns of loyalty and followers, particularly as global terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and ISIS transform into brands seeking local agents. Consequently, these organizations have gained networks of local supporters willing to carry out their goals without traditional recruitment methods.
Drivers of Terrorism Persistence
In recent years, terrorist organizations’ activities have been driven by several key factors that have helped them persist and expand in various regions. These factors can be summarized as follows:
- Exacerbation of Central State Crises: These crises have manifested in many regions, especially in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, where the growing phenomenon of failed states has positively impacted terrorist activities. The inability of states to enforce the law and monopolize violence has provided these organizations with opportunities, particularly in “stateless areas” that allow terrorist groups to establish independent power structures.
- Identity and Sectarianism Issues: Religious terrorist organizations base their ideology on a central concept of identity, positioning themselves as violent alternatives in unresolved identity debates within societies. These organizations fundamentally oppose the nation-state, viewing it as a product of a Western secular experiment that does not align with religious texts. Additionally, sectarian conflicts, particularly between Sunnis and Shias, have been exploited by terrorist organizations to expand their transnational networks, as seen in Syria with the involvement of Hezbollah and Iran.
- Global Jihad and Allegiance: These concepts are significant in the literature of global terrorist organizations, particularly those that originated in the Middle East. The notion of global jihad, promoted by al-Qaeda’s former leader Osama bin Laden in the 1990s, gave rise to the transnational terrorist system. ISIS further developed this ideology by introducing the concept of allegiance to its so-called caliphate, which attracted numerous recruits and led other organizations to pledge their loyalty to ISIS.
- Use of Non-Traditional Media: Terrorism heavily relies on propaganda to deliver its message, solidify its image, and attract more supporters. Modern media, such as social networks, YouTube, and even Google Earth, have become crucial tools for terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and ISIS, enabling them to plan, communicate, and garner material and human support while spreading fear through videos of their operations.
Expected Trends
The current global terrorism landscape, especially after the emergence of ISIS, is characterized by several key trends:
- Geographical Expansion: Terrorist organizations have worked to expand their activities beyond specific regions, unlike the situation during the 9/11 attacks. The Middle East remains significant, but there is a growing focus on other areas like Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
- Weaponry and Combat Innovation: Terrorist organizations have continuously developed their weaponry to enhance their capabilities, as seen with ISIS’s use of armed drones. This innovation raises concerns about future access to weapons of mass destruction.
- Increased Internet Dependence: Terrorist organizations are increasingly relying on the internet for propaganda, communication, psychological warfare, recruitment, and training. The internet has also facilitated what is termed “organizational learning,” where new knowledge and techniques are used to make better strategic decisions.
- Networked Organizations: The impact of globalization and the spread of the internet have led to a shift from traditional hierarchical structures to networked organizations. This model offers greater flexibility and adaptability in unstable environments.
- High Fluidity and Decentralization: There is a growing trend towards “virtual partnerships,” where radical elements within countries draw inspiration from terrorist organizations without formal organizational ties. This has given rise to phenomena like “family terrorism” and “leaderless terrorism.”
- Rivalry Between ISIS and al-Qaeda: A significant trend in current terrorist activities is the rivalry between ISIS and al-Qaeda. This competition has intensified the violence between the two organizations as they seek legitimacy and resources. Although there have been attempts at coexistence in certain regions, such as the Sahel, the competition remains fierce.
In summary, more than twenty years after the events of September 11, 2001, it appears that terrorist organizations still have many incentives that ensure their persistence. These incentives stem from factors related to the nature and structure of the terrorist organizations themselves, as well as from the weakness of certain states and institutions, in addition to environmental and popular support factors. Moreover, the significant advances in information technology have been exploited for recruiting followers and conducting terrorist activities. All of this necessitates that nations adopt comprehensive strategies to combat these organizations.
