Bilateral relations between Germany and the Philippines have seen notable developments recently, particularly in the defense sector. This comes amid escalating regional and international security tensions, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, due to disputes over the South China Sea and Taiwan. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius’s visit to the Philippines, along with the August 4, 2024 announcement of the two nations’ commitment to enhancing defense cooperation, marks a significant event reflecting this new direction in their relationship. This visit, the first of its kind by a German defense minister to the Philippines, is a strategic step aimed at bolstering defense and military cooperation between the two countries in response to shared security challenges, particularly those posed by China. The visit also coincides with the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations.
Military Interest
Germany’s interest in strengthening defense ties with the Philippines is part of a broader strategy to enhance security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Several factors contribute to this approach:
The Need to Finalize a Defense Agreement:
During Pistorius’s meeting with his Philippine counterpart, Gilberto Teodoro, in Manila, they pledged to sign a defense cooperation agreement by the end of the year. This is in light of the current security concerns that have recently impacted both countries’ interests in the region. Both sides view this new partnership as a means to support the rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific, especially as tensions between China and the Philippines rise. The agreement involves close cooperation between the German and Philippine armed forces through increased joint military exercises, sharing of security information, and potential sales of German weapons to the Philippine military. This aims to prepare for any potential external threats, including escalating Chinese provocations in the South China Sea. The Philippine defense minister stated that “China is the sole cause of tensions and conflicts in the disputed waters.” This partnership comes at a time of increasing tensions between China and the Philippines over disputed areas in the South China Sea. Despite this, both defense ministers were keen to stress that their cooperation does not target any specific country. Teodoro noted that “the Philippines does not provoke China. We do not seek war, but we are obligated not only by our constitution but also by our commitment to our citizens to protect any areas.”
Germany’s Interest in the Indo-Pacific:
Berlin increasingly views the Indo-Pacific as a crucial region for global security, especially as tensions rise between major powers, particularly the United States and China. By strengthening defense ties with countries like the Philippines, Germany aims to support regional stability and counter aggressive actions in the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways, through which goods worth over $3 trillion pass annually. Thus, the stability of this region is vital for the global economy, particularly Germany’s, which is Europe’s largest economy and has significant interests in this rising part of the world. Implicitly, one of the objectives of the defense cooperation between Germany and the Philippines is to help protect this vital economic corridor from security threats.
Berlin’s Support for Anti-China Views in the South China Sea:
During their meeting, the two defense officials discussed trends in the security environment and regional issues in the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Europe. They emphasized the importance of “advocating for principled and sustainable peace strongly rooted in international law,” opposing “any unilateral action aimed at bolstering expansionist claims, particularly through force or coercion,” a veiled reference to Beijing’s expansionist plans in Taiwan and the South China Sea, as well as Russia’s military operations in eastern Ukraine. While China claims sovereignty over most parts of the sea, including areas claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia as exclusive economic zones, Manila continues to insist on the application of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in The Hague, which found that Beijing’s claims in the sea “have no legal basis.” China strongly rejects this ruling. Berlin also shares Manila’s view, with Pistorius stating that “this ruling remains valid without any exceptions. We need to make more efforts to defend the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. We need to contribute to reducing tensions. We can only achieve this if we keep all channels of communication open, including those with China.”
Manila’s Need for External Support Against Beijing:
In a shift from his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, Philippine President Bong Marcos has taken a firmer stance against Beijing’s expansionist claims over the South China Sea, often angering China and prompting it to take escalatory measures in the region. Chinese coast guard ships regularly use powerful water jets on supply boats heading to any Philippine military site in the South China Sea, raising the possibility of deteriorating stability in the sea at any moment, especially if both sides respond to mutual provocations. As China builds military installations on the disputed islands, tensions in the region increase. For the Philippines, which relies on freedom of navigation in this area for economic and strategic reasons, Chinese actions pose a significant threat. Consequently, defense cooperation with Berlin, which supports freedom of navigation and international laws, provides Manila with additional support against these threats. Manila seeks to strengthen defense ties in the Asia-Pacific and beyond to counter China’s claims in the sea, an effort it is pursuing by modernizing its military and enhancing its defense capabilities.
Involving Berlin in the Evolution of Philippine Military Activity:
The Philippines has committed to spending approximately $35 billion over the next decade to modernize its military and enhance its external defense capabilities amid rising tensions with Beijing. As a result, it has signed defense cooperation agreements with other countries, including the United States, Japan, India, and Sweden. Teodoro has indicated that his country “will look to involve Germany as a potential supplier of these military capabilities, particularly in areas of command and control, maritime and air domains, and high-tech equipment.” The new agreement also allows for increased supplies of German weapons to the Philippines; Teodoro mentioned Germany as a “potential supplier for our future capabilities,” as part of his military modernization plans. Among the first steps to enhance this cooperation is the planned visit of the German Navy to Manila port in September 2024, as announced by Pistorius, along with more joint naval exercises in the coming months. More broadly, the German armed forces plan to conduct exercises with other partner countries in the region, involving the frigate Baden-Württemberg and the support ship Frankfurt am Main.
Potential Implications
There are several potential repercussions of the defense cooperation between Berlin and Manila, especially concerning tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly the disputed South China Sea. These may include:
A Cautionary Chinese Response: China may view this cooperation as a direct threat to its interests in the region, leading to escalating tensions. China may increase its military presence in the South China Sea and conduct more military exercises, raising the chances of direct confrontations with the disputing parties, including the Philippines. China has previously expressed concern about the growing relations between NATO members and some of its neighboring Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, prompting it to take harsher measures against them recently. While direct military clashes are unlikely, they remain possible if misunderstandings or miscalculations occur in the South China Sea. Additionally, China may impose economic sanctions or trade restrictions on the Philippines as a form of retaliation for its close military ties with Germany.
Undermining the Temporary Calm in the South China Sea: After a violent and alarming confrontation in June 2024 at the Philippine-occupied Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea between Chinese forces and Philippine navy personnel, the two countries reached a temporary agreement in July 2024 to prevent further clashes that could spark a major armed conflict on the disputed reef. The signing of the German-Philippine military agreement could undermine this temporary truce.
Promoting the German Defense and Armament Model: As one of the oldest official defense partners of the Philippines since the signing of the 1974 agreement, which includes training Philippine forces in Germany, the German and Philippine defense ministers have pledged to establish long-term relations between their armed forces to expand military training, bilateral exchanges, and explore opportunities to expand bilateral cooperation in armaments. The Philippines can benefit from Germany’s advanced military technology. This agreement could be the beginning of deepening defense cooperation between the two countries. Purchasing German weapons and cooperating in military technology could lead to mutual benefits for both countries, as it not only enhances the Philippines’ defense capabilities but also reduces reliance on a single supplier, such as the United States, giving the Philippines greater flexibility in its defense strategy. Joint military training is also a key aspect of defense cooperation, as Germany’s long military experience can provide advanced training for Philippine forces, enhancing their efficiency and ability to respond to external threats. The training will cover various aspects, including combat tactics, the use of modern weapons, and coordination between forces.
Expanding Berlin-Manila Relations: Improving defense relations can strengthen broader bilateral ties, potentially leading to increased economic cooperation and trade between Germany and the Philippines. Manila values Berlin’s role in Philippine economic development; Germany is the leading trade partner for the Philippines in the European Union, with trade valued at $7.4 billion in 2023. Germany consistently ranks as the top trade and investment partner, with German foreign direct investment in the Philippines rising to about $150 million in 2023, the highest level since 2005, according to Philippine Trade and Industry Minister Fred Pascual. German investments in the Philippines focus on the information technology-based services sector and the maritime sector in the Philippines. Philippine Undersecretary for International Trade Alan Gepty expects his country to attract more German investments due to its economic resilience, as it is the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia, with a growth rate of 5.6% in 2023, expected to continue between 5.8% and 6.3% in 2024 despite global economic headwinds.
. Revitalizing German Presence in the Indo-Pacific: Through cooperation with the Philippines, Germany will play a key role in contributing to the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific region, which is increasingly seen as critical due to rising tensions and strategic competition among major powers. Berlin aims to contribute to balancing regional power dynamics, especially in countering assertive actions in the South China Sea and promoting freedom of navigation.
It is also noteworthy that enhancing military cooperation will provide Germany with greater diplomatic leverage in regional and international forums, aligning it more closely with the strategic interests of the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). For example, in August 2024, Germany joined the United Nations Command in South Korea, becoming the 18th member of the group that helps monitor the border between the two Koreas. Pistorius described this step as evidence of Berlin’s strong belief that European security is closely linked to security in the Indo-Pacific.
In conclusion, this cooperation, centered on enhancing the Philippines’ defense capabilities while developing a strategic partnership with Germany, reflects a shared commitment to regional stability, maritime security, and mutual support in various defense and security fields. While Manila seeks to strengthen its defense capabilities and assert its sovereign position against Chinese actions in the region, Berlin aims to enhance its role in the Asia-Pacific as part of its strategy to support the rules-based international order and freedom of navigation. This reflects Germany’s broader effort to assert its role in global security and balance regional power structures by strengthening strong partnerships with key players in the Indo-Pacific region.
