More than three months have passed since the crash of the helicopter carrying former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on May 19, 2024, which resulted in his death along with seven others, including former Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. However, the debate over the cause of the crash continues. This ongoing discussion has led the Iranian authorities to repeatedly affirm that the crash was due to adverse weather conditions that the helicopter encountered during its return from East Azerbaijan Province. The final report, issued by a special investigation committee in early September 2024, stated that a sudden, dense fog bank appeared in front of the helicopter, causing it to collide with a mountain, resulting in the deaths and subsequent burning of the victims’ bodies.
Several Considerations
The Iranian authorities’ insistence on confirming their previous narrative about Raisi’s helicopter crash can be understood in light of several considerations, the most significant of which include:
1. Reducing Pressure for an Iranian Response to Israel: The Iranian regime seems determined to dismiss the possibility that Israel was involved in the helicopter crash, despite various factions in Tehran continuing to promote this theory. However, the regime, which is still hesitant to take military action against Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024, is wary of facing additional pressure to adopt such a course. Military retaliation, the regime fears, could impose a high cost that might not align with its current calculations and interests.
The Iranian regime faces difficult choices in this regard. A military response could provoke a counterstrike that might not necessarily come from Israel alone. On the other hand, refraining from such action could contradict the regime’s loud threats following the assassination, encapsulated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s statement that “retaliation for Haniyeh’s assassination is a duty for Iran.”
Thus, the regime has been keen to assert that Israel had no role in the helicopter crash, aiming to avoid adding new pressures to the already substantial demands for a military strike against Tel Aviv following the attack by Hezbollah on August 25, 2024, in response to Israel’s assassination of prominent Hezbollah military leader Fouad Shukr on July 30, 2024. Tel Aviv had stated that it carried out a preemptive strike to neutralize the impact of this retaliation.
2. The General Staff’s Effort to Deny Allegations of Negligence: Notably, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency published a report on August 20, 2024, which indirectly criticized the Iranian army’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, responsible, according to reports, for securing the president’s flights and visits. The report revealed that “contrary to safety protocols, the helicopter was carrying two additional passengers beyond its capacity, which meant it lacked the power to reach the required altitude, leading to its collision with a mountain.” The Joint Chiefs of Staff, who had been the first to form an investigation committee into the crash on May 20, 2024, intervened to refute this report, asserting that its claims were entirely baseless.
This suggests there was an attempt, possibly not far removed from the IRGC, to place responsibility for the negligence that led to the president’s helicopter crash on the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and by extension, the Iranian army. This attempt is linked to the escalating rivalry between the two institutions in recent years, evident in the rapid military buildup by both the IRGC and the army. The increasing talk of Russia’s imminent delivery of Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets to Iran may have exacerbated this rivalry, especially since numerous reports indicate that the army will be the one receiving the jets.
3. Dismissing the “Internal Conspiracy” Theory: Amid the severe crises currently facing Iran both domestically and internationally, it is noteworthy that some voices on social media and opposition-affiliated websites claimed that the possibility of sabotage from within could not be ruled out. They suggested that certain factions within the regime, who have a vested interest in removing former President Ebrahim Raisi from the political scene during this critical period, may have been involved in the crash, especially with important decisions looming, such as the selection of the next Supreme Leader to succeed Ali Khamenei.
Among these allegations was the involvement of Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s son, in the helicopter crash, fueled by rumors of a rivalry between him and Raisi over who would succeed the current leader. Raisi was perceived to hold a more prominent political and religious standing than Mojtaba, potentially diminishing the latter’s chances of inheriting his father’s position.
Regardless of the accuracy of this narrative, it became part of the public debate in Iran over the past three months, especially since speculation about who will succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader is a constant topic in Iran, given his advanced age and his previous battle with prostate cancer. Therefore, the regime’s swift reaffirmation that the helicopter crash was due to weather conditions was partly an effort to refute this theory, which could have sparked internal crises within the regime’s institutions amidst their ongoing conflicts over power and interests.
4. Promoting the Need to Lift Western Sanctions on Tehran: The disclosure of the final report by the investigation committee into Raisi’s helicopter crash came at a convenient time for the new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. They have announced that lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran will be a top priority over the next four years, given the severe negative impact of these sanctions, which have affected various sectors within Iran, most notably the heavily deteriorating civil aviation sector due to the country’s inability to procure necessary aircraft spare parts. This inability has been a significant cause of civilian aircraft crashes, including the helicopter crash that claimed the life of the president himself during his visit to East Azerbaijan Province.
This suggests that the president and his government will seek to use this report to lend credibility to their efforts to renew negotiations with Western countries, particularly the United States, regarding the nuclear deal, aiming to reach a new agreement that addresses the current shortcomings of the deal, and thus pave the way for lifting the bulk of U.S. sanctions on Iran, especially those related to oil exports and the use of the SWIFT system in banking transactions.
Conspiracy Theories
In light of this, it can be said that conspiracy theories will be a focal point of the escalating debate within Iran in the coming period. This is primarily due to the worsening crises the regime faces both domestically and externally. On the domestic front, the election of President Masoud Pezeshkian has not eased the existing tension between the regime and the public, as the former continues to impose strict social restrictions. The president himself has also come under intense criticism for his stances on certain issues, particularly the hijab. Furthermore, there seem to be disagreements within the regime’s institutions not only over the issue of Khamenei’s succession but also over the nature and extent of a military response against Israel.
Externally, tensions are gradually escalating with Western countries over several issues, including Iran’s military support for Russia, its advancing nuclear activities, and its interventions in regional crises. The likelihood of Iran becoming involved in a direct military confrontation with Israel is also increasing as a potential repercussion of the war Israel has been waging in the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023. This is occurring alongside the erosion of the regional deterrence that Iran has been building over the past forty-five years, due to Israeli strikes and breaches, as well as the intensive U.S. military buildup near Iran’s borders.
