On June 26, 2024, Kenyan President William Ruto announced the withdrawal of the 2024/2025 budget bill, which sought to impose taxes on essential goods and allow the revenue authority to monitor citizens’ financial records. This move aimed to quell escalating tensions in the country due to widespread popular protests in major cities such as Mombasa and Nyeri. The protests aimed to force the Kenyan government to abandon the controversial bill that, if passed, would impose additional taxes. Many view this bill as a catalyst for frustration towards the ruling regime, especially amid concerns over rising living costs that President Ruto had promised to reduce since coming to power to alleviate the economic burden on citizens.
These current protests can be seen as a strong message from Kenyan youth, particularly Generation Z, to the Ruto regime, which appears to be losing significant popularity due to its slow response to these rapidly evolving developments. Despite the Kenyan government’s efforts to cancel some controversial taxes, particularly on bread, cooking oil, and cars, the protesters’ demands have escalated to the complete withdrawal of the bill. Although President Ruto has backed down, questions remain about the future of political stability in Kenya and the continuity of Ruto’s administration in the coming period.
Complex Dimensions
Key aspects of the current unrest in the Kenyan political scene include:
Expansion of Protests Against the Regime: Protests against the proposed tax increases began in the capital, Nairobi, and quickly spread to other major areas, including Mombasa on the Indian Ocean and Eldoret, a stronghold of Ruto’s support in the last election. There are fears of further expansion, raising concerns about negative impacts on the Kenyan economy. Opponents argue that the new taxes will increase the cost of essential goods like mobile phones, bread, sanitary products, and computers, and that fuel taxes will raise production costs, leading to higher prices for goods and transportation.
Increasing Violence: Recent days have seen an escalation of protests into chaos and violence. Protesters attempted to storm the Kenyan parliament building on June 21, 2024, eventually succeeding four days later and setting the building on fire. Additionally, the governor’s office in Nairobi near the parliament was set ablaze, with protesters chanting slogans against the political elite, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction.
Adoption of Strict Security Measures: These protests were met with tear gas, water cannons, and live ammunition from Kenyan security forces, resulting in over 22 deaths and 200 injuries, with more than 100 arrests. The Kenyan army was deployed to support the police amidst the security emergency and attempts to breach vital infrastructure. President Ruto declared a state of emergency after the protests turned violent, particularly following the storming of parliament.
Ruto’s Escalating Stances: President Ruto used strong language, describing the parliament attack as a threat to national security and vowing such disruptions would not recur. He framed the legitimate popular protests against his policies as hijacked by organized criminals. Despite his initial stance, Ruto withdrew the controversial budget bill and promised alternative measures to generate revenue without taxing the Kenyan people, indicating his concession to popular pressure.
Government Support for the Bill: The Kenyan government justified the controversial bill in May 2024 as a measure to address the burden of external debt, with President Ruto viewing the proposed taxes as essential for controlling debt exceeding $80 billion, which consumes over half of the annual tax revenue for debt service. The government aimed to raise an additional $2.7 billion from local revenues to help repay debts and fund development projects, while a significant portion of the Kenyan public saw the bill as introducing punitive new taxes.
Widespread Public Discontent with Ruto: A crisis of confidence has emerged between the Kenyan public and President Ruto due to recent events. Some describe him as deceitful, failing to deliver on his promises to reduce economic pressures and living costs. Many see his tax stance as dictatorial, inappropriate for Kenya’s context. Some believe Ruto is gambling with Kenya’s future by aiming to raise funds for a small elite, while most Kenyans struggle to meet their basic needs.
Dilemma of Meeting IMF Conditions: The IMF appears to be pushing the Kenyan government towards stricter austerity measures, coinciding with the government’s intent to impose more taxes, which wide swaths of the Kenyan population reject. This could hinder future agreements between Nairobi and the IMF, with protesters arguing that the new taxes would push more Kenyans into poverty amid rising living costs.
Generation Z Uprising: This generation is leading the protests against Ruto’s regime across the country, expressing their anger via social media before demonstrations erupted in major cities. This pressure on Ruto’s government indicates declining popularity among Generation Z, suggesting continued political tensions given the communication gap between this generation and the ruling elite.
Potential Implications
The current unrest in Kenya carries several potential implications, including:
Decline in Ruto’s Popularity: President Ruto may face a legitimacy crisis in the coming period due to widespread dissatisfaction, with many viewing him as having reneged on his commitments, exacerbating economic crises for citizens.
Undermining Confidence in the Kenyan Model: Some view Ruto’s policies as authoritarian, threatening Kenya’s reputation as a beacon of democracy and political stability in East Africa.
Pressure on Ruto for Alternative Solutions: Continued protests may push Ruto to seek alternative solutions for government revenue, such as further austerity measures to cut costs in government institutions.
Rise of Kenyan Opposition Forces: The ruling regime’s ability to unify the political opposition against the financial bill may allow the opposition to gain new ground in Kenyan political dynamics, amid declining trust in Ruto.
Worsening Economic Crises: Ongoing political and security tensions threaten Kenya’s economy, already facing challenges, with security threats potentially disrupting key commercial areas, negatively affecting citizens’ living conditions.
Potential Strain on US-Kenya Relations: The US and Kenya have enjoyed strong relations, especially following Ruto’s visit to Washington in May 2024. However, the recent violence and deaths from protests could strain these relations, with Washington potentially pressured to intervene against internal violence in Kenya.
Overall, it is unlikely President Ruto will reintroduce new taxes in the short term following widespread protests and criticism of his policies. This reflects the strength of Kenyan democracy amid a turbulent regional context in Africa. Ruto is expected to seek other means to meet his debt repayment commitments and revive the national economy, while facing the challenge of restoring public trust and his popularity, which has been severely shaken by the current crisis.
