The United States is updating its military assets in the Middle East to establish a new pattern of military deployment. This update aligns with the end of the post-9/11 era and the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, which lasted for nearly two decades. The new military assets are designed to address the growing unconventional threats in the region, relying heavily on unmanned aerial and naval drones, artificial intelligence applications, and laser-equipped weapons. However, this does not mean the abandonment of traditional assets like missile defense systems, which are also being upgraded. The restructuring of these new assets is expected to attract more regional and international partners from the Middle East and beyond.
It is noteworthy that the Middle East has become a testing ground for these new types of American smart weapon systems. In the second half of November 2022, the Central Command announced the launch of Task Force 59, a maritime drone force, the first of its kind in the world. This announcement came about a year after the initial declaration to begin building this force, intended to cover naval deployments in the region. This force is under the Central Command of the Navy (NAVCEN) within the Fifth Fleet, serving as the second wing to the 99th Air Drone Force, which was established and deployed in Qatar. The operational and deployment tasks of this force overlap with the four naval patrols – 151, 153, and the most recent, 154, which covers the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden. Thus, the Central Command has nearly completed full defensive coverage of the region.
The recent announcement of the activation of these new assets was accompanied by several significant experiments and activities over the past two years. For instance, there were laser use simulations to counter aerial and naval drones, with the first in May 2020 and the second in November 2021 from the American destroyer USS Portland in the Arabian Sea and Bab al-Mandab. It is believed that these experiments, developed by companies like Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing, will be operational within the next two years. Meanwhile, the new force (TF-59) has already begun operations, with its activation coinciding with the interception of an Iranian ship carrying rocket fuel materials in the Gulf of Oman on November 8th.
The interception of the rocket fuel shipment illustrates the added value of TF-59. The vessel carrying the shipment was a wooden sailboat, and the cargo, 70 tons of ammonium chlorate, was hidden among hundreds of tons of agricultural fertilizers (urea). The movement route, nature of the ship’s structure, and weight relative to its cargo were analyzed, leading to suspicion. The maritime drones moved to surround the vessel, surprising the crew as the force was unmanned. According to Central Command leader General Erik Kurilla in the Manama Dialogue – IISS2022, a U.S. Coast Guard ship (USCGC John Scheuerman) and a guided missile destroyer (USS The Sullivans) arrived at the site, and the ship was later sunk in the sea.
In this way, there will no longer be a need for a large military deployment for rapid intervention and monitoring of hostile activities and large-scale smuggling operations. According to American reports, a force of only 14 officers monitors these movements along the coast from the Gulf of Oman through the Arabian Sea to Bab al-Mandab, coordinating with Central Command in Bahrain. This force’s capabilities are expected to expand to 100 maritime vehicles, according to the official American announcement. This point is crucial for reducing deployment costs, which are not solely borne by the United States. These capabilities are significantly cheaper compared to manned traditional assets and will reduce the human presence while improving the analysis of threat nature, intensity, and access to locations that were previously difficult to reach or targets that were hard to suspect.
In this context, it is important to consider the deployment objectives compared to indicators of maritime risks and threats in the region. For example:
While this force represents a valuable addition to early warning, monitoring, and rapid response operations, thus mitigating many threats that were difficult to reach, there is a simultaneous growth in strategic capabilities. For instance, around the time of this announcement, the Houthi movement in Yemen tested a new naval missile on the shores of Hodeidah, sending a message of alternative threats. This is coupled with the intensification of aerial drone attacks, which have been used to halt operations at oil facilities and ports in Shabwa and Hadramawt. This suggests that despite efforts to minimize threats, the ongoing and sustained conflict in Yemen, with its status as a fragile state, will continue to contribute to these threats. Addressing these issues cannot solely focus on closing defensive gaps, as the other side will inevitably seek to develop its capabilities as a form of deterrence from its perspective.
When the ship was intercepted and sunk, it is believed that the targeting of the Israeli oil tanker “Pacific Zircon” by Iran, likely with a drone, occurred shortly after. Following this, a team from Central Command went to Israel, perhaps to contain the situation and prevent a resumption of the “tanker war” that both parties engaged in last year. Therefore, the modernization process did not guarantee the prevention of a confrontation of this type. Regardless of Israel’s stance and its willingness to avoid returning to conflict, it is also upgrading a fleet of this type under the name (the Iron Dome at Sea). During the last war on Gaza, Palestinian factions used limited naval drones, which may have motivated Israel to launch this system. This situation gives the impression that the region is not on the brink of peace and stability but rather facing deterrence operations and counter-deterrence.
Indeed, the new force represents a significant logistical and tactical advantage that is hard to ignore. It reduces costs and fosters regional partnership in managing, organizing, and coordinating the new deployment process, a vital factor. However, in this context, it is challenging to ignore the development of traditional capabilities and expertise possessed by the armies in a region with multiple levels of risks and threats. These are not limited to unconventional threats but also include growing strategic threats. It was noteworthy that the United States deployed the nuclear submarine (West Virginia) in the Arabian Sea. About two weeks later, B-25 bombers were flying in the Gulf and over the Middle East. This might be the first serious discussion of an American nuclear umbrella in the Middle East.
