Walid Abdel Hay By
Arab positions on the current aggression on Gaza can be identified in the following axes:
1- The axis of condemnation: These Arab condemnations fall in two directions: official governmental condemnation and popular condemnations. “Because the policies of these countries are not in harmony with the positions on the ground, those who are condemned are increasing the volume of their trade exchange with Israel, and the reports of secret security and political cooperation – according to what is reported in the important media – is clearly increasing.
On the other hand, the field value of these convictions They are completely non-existent, and that the record of previous convictions from these Arab countries is almost innumerable. Rather, I claim that some of the convictions are for purely subjective purposes and have nothing to do with the subject of the conviction.
2- The axis of Arab mediators. It is noticeable that Egypt and Qatar are at the forefront of this scene, and it is known that the mediator must have some conditions for mediation, the first of which is the ability to influence materially and morally the parties to the dispute to push them towards a middle point. And the geo-strategy on the Gaza Strip has a very great ability to put pressure on Gaza, whether for the movement of the Gazan citizen or the Palestinian official, or the transit of various materials for trade, import and export… In the role of “Proxy Diplomacy”, he must provide for her requirements..Gaza is in dire need of Egypt and Qatar.
But if we move to the other side, ie the Israeli side, what is the impact of Egypt and Qatar on the Israeli side? , I claim that the effect is “zero, even if it is a large zero.” They suggest that they have an influence on the parties, but the field indicates that they do not affect it at all, and they follow the policy of appeasement pursued by the allies with Hitler.
In light of the previous equation, the Arab mediators only have the ability to influence the Gazan party, but rather they are waiting for the opportunity to do so because the target party is the Islamic Jihad movement, which means that the role of Qatar and Egypt is to pressure under the guise of mediation on Islamic Jihad to accept Israeli conditions that will appear. successively, otherwise the movement will have to pay the price for what will be described later as “its intransigence”.
Another branch is connected to this issue: Is Hamas’ abstinence from the military scene part of the pressure on jihad to appease Egypt and Qatar? Or is it evading Hamas from committing to what the negotiations will lead to, which will surely be in the interest of Israel directly and indirectly in favor of the security coordination authority, or is it a realization by Hamas that the situation in Gaza (politically, militarily and economically) cannot bear the current confrontation, which is a crack in the wall.” The common room” may lead to ominous consequences, regardless of the chance of this possibility.
3- The position of the Arab League: This institution does not need any comment, as it is incapable of solving problems among its members, so how can it solve the problems of one of its parties, Shylock.
4 – If Hamas has so far not participated in an effective manner in the confrontation, then it is unreasonable to ask others or even hint to others to do so.
5- If we add to all this the difference in the balance of power (politically, militarily, and economically) between Islamic Jihad “and those with it” and Israel, the picture is very bleak, and I fear that a long-term cease-fire will be imposed with harsh conditions on it, including the involvement of the Security Coordination Authority in Managing the security aspects in the Gaza Strip and under the guise of international and Arab commitments, and all these factors may support each other: the sword of Egypt, the gold of Qatar, the Israeli cannon, and the European-American aid to the Palestinian citizen to be levers of pressure on Gaza to accept the scheme that I have already warned about five months ago recently…. I am wrong and that I am clearly astray, and that it becomes clear that the genius theory that normalization in the interest of peace adopted by the United Arab Emirates is an unparalleled scientific discovery
