Sri Lanka’s presidential election is set to take place on September 21, 2024, in a highly dynamic political climate. A record-breaking 39 candidates are vying for the position, with four main contenders leading the race: Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP), current President Ranil Wickremesinghe running as an independent, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa from the Samagi Jana Balawegaya party, and Namal Rajapaksa from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
Despite the extensive executive powers the president holds, such as appointing senior officials and influencing national policy, the new president will still need to collaborate with the parliament, which is currently dominated by the SLPP. This party controls key committees and budget decisions, potentially limiting the incoming president’s ability to implement political changes, especially if these changes face resistance from the SLPP.
The Candidates’ Race:
Polling indicates that Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa are leading the race, followed by President Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa. The following are key features of each major candidate:
Anura Kumara Dissanayake (NPP candidate): He leads the People’s Liberation Front, a leftist opposition coalition that includes political parties and groups backed by those severely affected by Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, which toppled the Rajapaksa government in 2022. Dissanayake often presents himself as the agent of change called for by millions of Sri Lankans, who lost faith in traditional political parties during the unprecedented economic crisis. He stands as a strong competitor to Wickremesinghe, who remains unpopular due to implementing austerity measures in exchange for an IMF bailout. Dissanayake promotes policies focused on social justice, welfare, and supporting the most vulnerable groups through increased social spending and government subsidies. He also plans to renegotiate the IMF program under terms that wouldn’t further deteriorate the economy while protecting the neediest social groups. On foreign policy, Dissanayake favors strengthening relations with India while reducing economic and political dependence on China, given China’s increasing influence in infrastructure projects. However, he may face significant challenges from the SLPP, which could resist any shifts in foreign policy towards India.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe: With extensive political experience, having served multiple terms as prime minister before assuming the presidency after Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ousting, Wickremesinghe’s success hinges on public approval of his economic reform plan. He managed to restore some economic stability by negotiating an IMF bailout and implementing its conditions, focusing on privatization and improving the investment climate. During his interim presidency, Wickremesinghe reduced inflation and interest rates while improving foreign reserves and the value of the Sri Lankan rupee. However, these gains came at a social cost, including higher taxes and reduced government subsidies. Analysts suggest that his rise to power disappointed many protestors, especially since his selection was supported by Rajapaksa-aligned legislators, who were blamed for the mismanagement and corruption that led to the 2022 crisis. In foreign relations, Wickremesinghe balances ties with both India and China, focusing on regional stability and negotiating free trade agreements to enhance trade relations and lower tariffs with both countries.
Sajith Premadasa (Leader of the Opposition): As the leader of Sri Lanka’s opposition and son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, Sajith broke away from Wickremesinghe’s United National Party in 2019. Premadasa emphasizes economic growth through tax incentives and free trade, fighting corruption, and expanding trade agreements while renegotiating with the IMF for more favorable terms for Sri Lanka. However, this could meet stiff resistance from the IMF, which is firm on enforcing its stringent conditions. Such attempts may delay future credit installments agreed upon with the IMF. On foreign policy, Premadasa is expected to maintain geopolitical balance between India and China, avoid leaning too closely to either side, and focus on managing external debt while attracting foreign investments in infrastructure projects like ports and public transportation systems, along with enhancing regional and maritime security cooperation.
Namal Rajapaksa (SLPP candidate): Namal is the son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the nephew of exiled President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled during the economic crisis in 2022. Although the Rajapaksa family has lost much of its popularity due to the economic downturn, it remains influential in Sri Lankan politics. Namal hopes to salvage the SLPP’s future in parliamentary elections, but his chances of winning the presidency appear slim, as many Sri Lankans hold his family accountable for the current crisis. Namal may oppose some economic reforms, such as privatization, to maintain his base’s support. Despite his slim chances of victory, his candidacy represents an attempt to preserve the Rajapaksa legacy in Sri Lankan politics.
Key Election Issues:
The upcoming presidential election is highly competitive, primarily driven by complex electoral issues, with economic concerns at the forefront for voters. The main issues include:
The deteriorating Sri Lankan economy: The election will largely revolve around how the public perceives each candidate’s economic reform plan. Sri Lanka is undergoing a critical debt restructuring and financial reform program under the IMF, following unsustainable debt levels, a severe balance of payments crisis, and the impact of COVID-19. The country’s foreign currency reserves and essential goods, such as fuel and medicines, were critically depleted in 2022, prompting Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee and resign. Wickremesinghe negotiated a deal with foreign creditors to defer debt service until 2028, stabilizing the situation. He now campaigns on continuing his reform agenda, promising strong growth and aiming to make Sri Lanka a developed country by its 100th independence anniversary in 2048.
Addressing external financial crises: The next president must support economic recovery, continue the $2.9 billion IMF program, and manage debt restructuring while promoting sustainable growth. Wickremesinghe’s administration has secured agreements to defer debt payments until 2028, giving Sri Lanka breathing room to rebuild its economy. However, this recovery may face resistance from the SLPP, which opposes privatization over concerns about national sovereignty.
Social protection for affected groups: Many voters fear rising poverty levels, which the World Bank estimated at 25.9% in 2023. Continued austerity measures and high taxes could fuel public dissatisfaction, particularly among low-income groups, potentially triggering renewed protests and economic disruption.
Meeting the aspirations of the Tamil minority: Sri Lanka’s minorities, especially the Tamil community, lack a coherent electoral strategy. Wickremesinghe may continue reconciliation efforts with the Tamil community, offering greater autonomy to Tamil-majority regions. In contrast, Rajapaksa may adopt a security-focused approach, prioritizing law and order without significant political concessions. Premadasa may propose constitutional amendments to grant greater autonomy to northern and eastern provinces.
Balancing Sri Lanka’s foreign relations: Candidates must carefully navigate Sri Lanka’s geopolitical position, balancing relations with key partners like India, Japan, and China, who compete for influence in the region. While Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa aim to balance ties between China and India, Dissanayake favors closer relations with India.
In conclusion, Sri Lanka’s 2024 presidential election is expected to be the most competitive in the country’s history, driven by economic issues. Whoever wins will face a delicate balance between pursuing economic reforms and managing complex geopolitical dynamics.
