The Evolution of Russian-Iranian Relations Following the Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh

Russian-Iranian relations exemplify the complex interactions between two nations with a long and intertwined history. These relations span centuries and have been influenced by political, geopolitical, and regional changes. Historically, the relationship between Russia and Iran has seen periods of both competition and cooperation, reflecting the shifting dynamics of international politics. Over time, their relationship evolved from tension and rivalry to mutual strategic cooperation. Initially, tensions arose between the Russian Empire and Iran due to conflicts over influence in the Caucasus, and the Russian-Iranian wars resulted in treaties that weakened Iranian influence in the region, such as the Treaty of Turkmenchay in 1828 and the Treaty of Erzurum in 1823.

Following the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979, relations between the two nations took a new turn under the Islamic Republic. In recent years, with the development of regional crises such as the conflict in Syria, the relationship between Russia and Iran has become more integrated. They have collaborated closely on security and regional issues, forming a multidimensional strategic partnership that includes cooperation in economic and military fields, as well as strengthening their positions on the international stage against Western pressures. Russia has also assisted Iran in developing its nuclear program, further enhancing bilateral cooperation.

Despite the fluctuations in their relationship, Russian-Iranian relations are of significant importance to both countries. Iran has played a pivotal role in supplying Russia with drones and missiles used in the Ukraine war and in helping circumvent Western sanctions imposed on both nations. Moscow is currently monitoring international changes and developments. This paper will explore the nature of Russian-Iranian relations, the motivations behind the evolution of their relationship, key areas of cooperation and partnership, and the implications of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh on their bilateral relations.

Section 1: Historical Background of Russian-Iranian Relations

Russian-Iranian relations have experienced several pivotal historical moments, including the period from 1962 to 1979, the year of the Iranian Islamic Revolution. As described by Iranian researcher Ibrahim Mottaqi, despite the significance of these periods, relations did not deepen into a strategic alliance. The political behavior of both sides has often revealed tension and mistrust, attributed to various factors, the most significant being the geopolitical context governing their relationship.

Extending over several centuries, Russian-Iranian relations have undergone substantial changes over time. In ancient times, relations between the Russian and Persian empires were focused on trade and regional conflicts. In the 19th century, both Russia and Iran faced a series of disputes, including the Russian-Persian wars, which led to treaties like Turkmenchay in 1828, dividing spheres of influence between the two countries. In the 20th century, relations strained during the Cold War as Iran sought to balance the influence of great powers. However, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the dynamics shifted, with Iran and Russia working to strengthen their strategic ties in response to Western pressures, leading to closer military and economic cooperation.

Despite the post-1979 slogan of “Neither East nor West, an Islamic Republic,” the United States was labeled “the Great Satan,” leading to the severance of diplomatic ties and the imposition of sanctions. This prompted the Islamic Republic of Iran to bolster its position against the US by turning to the “Communist Soviet Union,” which was the first to recognize Iran’s religious government. Although relations between Moscow and Tehran were strong, they were not without problems. Iran’s attempts to establish a logistics network in the Caucasus and Central Asia to solidify its regional position led to dissatisfaction in the Kremlin. Additionally, delays by Russia in completing the Bushehr nuclear power plant and in delivering S-300 missile defense systems were perceived as malfeasance by the Iranians.

Since 2012, significant changes in the international arena and the intensification of communications between Moscow and Tehran mark a new phase in post-Soviet Russian history. The two countries are working to establish a robust foundation for bilateral dialogue. While they seek to solidify their relationship to advance their geopolitical interests, there are several obstacles that could limit their cooperation. The return of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin in 2012 marked the beginning of a new phase in Russian-Iranian relations, with Russia seeking to build strong ties with non-Western powers like Iran amid tensions with the West over issues like the Syrian crisis.

Section 2: Motivations Behind the Development of Russian-Iranian Relations

The relationship between Russia and Iran is based on multiple strategic motivations that reflect their geopolitical, security, and economic interests. This relationship is particularly pronounced amid international tensions and Western pressures faced by both countries.

For Russia, the motivations include:

Geopolitical Influence: Russia aims to restore its influence in the Middle East after a period of retreat. Supporting Iran enhances its status as a major power on the international stage and increases its influence in strategic regions like the Mediterranean.

National Security: Strengthening ties with Iran is seen as a way to counter Western influence, especially that of the United States and its regional allies, and to mitigate the international pressures it faces. Russia views Iran as a key partner in boosting its role in the Middle East, and any rapprochement between Iran and Western countries is seen as counterproductive. Iran is aware of Russia’s concerns and has sought to balance its openness by increasing cooperation with Moscow, particularly in security and military fields.

Military Cooperation: By supporting Iran in developing its military capabilities, Russia aims to enhance its own military cooperation, which could be beneficial in addressing security and economic threats.

Economic and Energy Interests: The lifting of some sanctions on Iran has opened up economic opportunities for Russian companies in sectors such as chemicals, oil, information technology, railway construction, aviation, and maritime trade. Russia has also played a significant role in brokering the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1, facilitating substantial economic, political, and military cooperation between the two countries.

For Iran, the motivations include:

Regional Influence: Iran seeks to bolster its role as a key regional power in the Middle East, and Russian support helps achieve this goal by strengthening its position in regional conflicts such as the Syrian war.

Mitigating International Pressures: Facing sanctions and pressure from Western powers, Iran views cooperation with Russia as a way to alleviate the impact of these sanctions through strategic partnership and political and commercial support.

National Security: Russian support helps Iran enhance its national security and address military and security challenges, boosting its capacity to counter regional threats.

Countering American and Western Influence: Iran sees Russia as a strategic partner in resisting American and Western influence in the region and enhancing its position in regional and international conflicts. Iranian support in international organizations and the UN Security Council can be strengthened by Russian backing.

Section 3: Areas of Cooperation and Partnership Between Russia and Iran

In 2001, Russia and Iran signed a 20-year strategic agreement, which was automatically extended for another five years in 2020, according to Russian news agency TASS. The agreement, which was set to be replaced by a new treaty in 2020, included cooperation in security and energy projects, including the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the construction of nuclear power plants, industry, and technology, as outlined on the Kremlin’s website.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Iran has been one of the Kremlin’s closest supporters. The Iranian government provided hundreds of drones to the Russian military and sent trainers to Crimea to assist with their use. Recent reports indicate that Iran plans to supply Russia with advanced short-range ballistic missiles and help establish a production line for Iranian drones in Russia. While these weapons have been used extensively by Russian forces, their success has been limited, though sufficient to disrupt Ukrainian air defenses and cause significant damage to civilian targets.

Several key areas of cooperation and partnership between Russia and Iran include:

Energy Cooperation: The development and enhancement of energy cooperation between Russia and Iran are paramount. Moscow’s role as a major global supplier of oil and gas, combined with Iran’s efforts to increase energy relations with Russia, reflects a mutual interest in leveraging energy as a political tool for economic development and national interests. In February, Iranian Deputy Oil Minister for International Affairs and Trade, Ahmad Zadeh, emphasized the importance of expanding energy relations, suggesting that Russia and Iran could work together and that other major players could create new opportunities for international economic cooperation.

Nuclear Energy Cooperation: One of the most prominent areas of partnership is nuclear energy, including the construction of nuclear reactors. Russia built the Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran, a commercial reactor part of a long-term cooperation agreement. Russia also supplies fuel for the Bushehr reactor, ensuring its continuous and safe operation. The cooperation includes research and development projects, enhancing nuclear safety measures, and expanding economic cooperation through trade agreements and investments in oil and gas fields.

Space Cooperation: Iran has faced challenges with launching and operating satellite launch vehicle boosters. Russian technology has been highly welcomed in Tehran. Cooperation in space reflects both countries’ commitment to advancing space technologies, including satellite launches, space research, and technological development. For instance, Russia assisted Iran with the launch of the “Omid” satellite in 2009, Iran’s first satellite. Both nations work on joint research projects related to outer space and space technology and train Iranian personnel in space technology.

Military Cooperation: After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, military cooperation became a significant aspect of Russian-Iranian relations. Tehran has purchased a variety of Russian weapons to counter Western sanctions. In recent years, there has been unprecedented closeness due to joint efforts in addressing the aftermath of the Arab Spring, particularly in Syria. Recent military cooperation has intensified.

Russian-Iranian military cooperation includes:

Weapons and Military Technology: The delivery of weapons and military technology, such as the S-300 air defense systems and other military equipment.

Training and Military Exercises: Sharing military expertise, training Iranian armed forces, and conducting joint military exercises.

Section 4: The Impact of the Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh on Russian-Iranian Relations

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, a prominent Hamas leader, has potential implications for Russian-Iranian relations. The reaction of the Iranian government to Haniyeh’s assassination could influence the dynamics of its relationship with Russia. This event reflects the broader geopolitical context in which Russia and Iran operate, including their roles in the Middle East and their strategic interests.

Reaction and Diplomatic Relations: Iran’s reaction to Haniyeh’s assassination may impact its diplomatic stance towards Russia. If Iran perceives Russia’s response as inadequate or unfavorable, it may affect their cooperation. Russia’s role as a mediator in regional conflicts and its relations with various Middle Eastern actors could influence the outcomes of this event.

Strategic Alliances and Regional Influence: The assassination may alter the strategic balance in the region, affecting the geopolitical landscape and the role of Russia and Iran in the Middle East. Changes in alliances and regional dynamics could lead to shifts in their bilateral relations.

Impact on Regional Conflicts: The assassination could have implications for ongoing regional conflicts, including the Syrian conflict, in which Russia and Iran are both involved. Changes in the conflict dynamics could impact their collaboration and strategies in the region.

Potential for Increased Cooperation: In the face of shared challenges and regional uncertainties, Russia and Iran may seek to enhance their cooperation further. The assassination could lead to increased joint efforts in addressing security threats and regional instability.

Conclusion

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh represents a significant event in the context of Russian-Iranian relations. The response and reactions from both countries will likely shape their future interactions and cooperation. Understanding the historical background, motivations, areas of partnership, and the impact of such events provides valuable insights into the complexities of Russian-Iranian relations and their strategic importance in the region.

SAKHRI Mohamed
SAKHRI Mohamed

I hold a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and International Relations in addition to a Master's degree in International Security Studies. Alongside this, I have a passion for web development. During my studies, I acquired a strong understanding of fundamental political concepts and theories in international relations, security studies, and strategic studies.

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