The strategic partnership between Russia and China has emerged as one of the most important bilateral relationships in the post-Cold War era. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia went through a turbulent period of economic turmoil and political upheaval during the 1990s. Meanwhile, China was rapidly emerging as a major global economic and political power. By the late 1990s, leaders in Moscow and Beijing saw strategic benefit in closer ties between the two countries as a counterbalance to perceived American global dominance. This ushered in a new era of strengthened political, economic and military cooperation between Russia and China that has continued to the present day.
In 2001, Russia and China signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, which formalized their strategic partnership. This twenty-year treaty was renewed in July 2021 for an additional five years, demonstrating both countries’ ongoing commitment to closer bilateral ties. Politically, Russia and China have supported each other’s positions and interests in international organizations like the United Nations, often voting together. Economically, China became Russia’s largest trading partner, while Russia has become a major supplier of oil, natural gas and military equipment to China. Militarily, they have conducted joint exercises and Russia has sold advanced weapons systems to China. The partnership is highly pragmatic, based on convergent interests in certain areas balanced against divergent interests in others. It reflects a high degree of trust and cooperation markedly different from the adversarial relationship of past decades.
As the Russia-China strategic partnership continues to solidify, it has significant implications for the emerging geopolitical landscape and balance of power. Looking ahead, several key factors and scenarios could shape the future trajectory of relations between these two major powers. Examining the most likely and impactful scenarios provides important insight into the potential future role of the Russia-China partnership in international affairs.
Key Factors in the Partnership’s Future
There are several underlying factors that will influence Russia-China ties in the coming years:
- Leadership continuity and elite cohesion. The durability of mutual understanding between Russian and Chinese leaders is crucial. A change in leadership or elite cohesion in either country could alter strategic calculations.
- Economic interdependence. Deepening trade, investment and energy links create complex interdependence and incentives to maintain good relations. However, economic asymmetries and competition create potential friction.
- Military and security cooperation. Alignment of defense interests sustains ties, but regional variations in threat perceptions could disrupt cooperation. Arms sales are economically and strategically beneficial but create risks.
- Relations with the United States. Shared concerns over U.S. power and Western-led order drive Russia-China convergence. But avoiding outright anti-American entente preserves flexibility for both countries.
- Regional dynamics. Overlapping security interests in Central and South Asia sustain ties, but differences persist in the Arctic and East Asia. Managing rivalries will be a challenge.
- Global governance. Cooperation in forums like the UN fosters joint interests, but visions of international order differ, especially regarding sovereignty norms. Efforts to reform global governance may test relations.
These factors demonstrate that multiple economic, political, military and geopolitical crosscurrents will shape partnership dynamics. The complex interplay between these variables makes forecasting the future of Russia-China ties challenging. Small developments could have an outsized impact in pushing relations along more cooperative or conflictual trajectories. Three scenarios emerge as particularly impactful.
Most Important Scenarios
Scenario 1: Weakening economic ties and leadership tensions create a more limited, ad hoc partnership
In this scenario, a slowing Chinese economy combined with declining Russian economic competitiveness leads to diminishing bilateral trade and investment. Western sanctions on Russia persist, limiting opportunities for economic cooperation. Slowing growth in energy exports to China also removes an economic pillar of the partnership. With less economic interdependence propelling ties, relations become more contingent on leadership relationships and security cooperation. However, tensions surface between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping over influence in Central Asia, arms sales to India and Arctic shipping rights. A more competitive dynamic emerges as Chinese power increases relative to Russia’s.
Though still valued as a counterbalance to the West, the strategic partnership loses momentum and coherence. Russia and China continue cooperating selectively in security affairs but now more as an ad hoc alignment than a comprehensive partnership. Engagement with the United States remains tactical rather than forming an overt anti-Western bloc. With economic engines sputtering and elite relations cooling, the logic of strategic partnership erodes.
Implications: A weakening of Russia-China ties would reduce the influence of the partnership in international affairs. It may empower Western countries to press relations with Russia on issues like Ukraine without fear of counter-mobilization by China. More Sino-Russian competition in Central Asia could open room for greater U.S. engagement. However, even an ad hoc security alignment would remain impactful, forestalling Western hopes of driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.
Scenario 2: Strong leadership and threat convergence lead to an increasingly tight alliance
In this scenario, Presidents Putin and Xi maintain close rapport and see vital national interests advanced through tight strategic alignment. China’s economy continues growing robustly, expanding the resources available to both countries. Strong Chinese demand sustains Russian energy exports and inward investment. Territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas drive Beijing to rely more heavily on Russian defense technology and diplomatic backing. Increased NATO expansion prompts Russian countermoves, which China supports.
As China faces growing international backlash against its human rights policies, Russia stands out as a key partner unwilling to criticize such norms. Chinese economic power makes it the senior partner, but Russia retains influence via arms sales and security cooperation in Central Asia. With mutually reinforcing interests,warnings about the risks of alignment are disregarded. The partnership evolves into a quasi-alliance with joint military exercises, weapons development programs, regular summitry and policy coordination. It becomes a coherent counterpole to the Western-led liberal order.
Implications: An increasingly tight Sino-Russian alliance would severely undermine U.S. influence and enable more assertive policies by Moscow and Beijing in their respective regions. Combined resistance would frustrate Western sanctions and military efforts. On issues like Iran, North Korea and information controls, coordinated Sino-Russian policies would compel Western concessions and limit coercive options. U.S.-led alliances in Europe and Asia will come under greater stress. However, this scenario also risks making Russia overly dependent on China and inflaming Russian fears of junior status.
Scenario 3: Selective cooperation continues amid regional complexity
In this middle scenario, Russian and Chinese leaders maintain largely productive ties but the partnership falls short of a formal alliance. Major new economic initiatives like the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline reinforce steady trade and financial integration. Arms sales and technology transfers continue, prompting occasional U.S. and NATO criticism. Security cooperation in Central Asia increases to combat militancy and instability from Afghanistan. Successful dialogues manage Arctic shipping disputes.
However, tensions remain over regional issues like influence in Mongolia and Korea. As Chinese power grows and Russia recovers some economic and military might, its role as junior partner rankles some in Moscow. Efforts to coordinate Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union with China’s Belt and Road Initiative have limited success. Both countries balance their shared interests in strategic cooperation with flexibility needed in relations with the United States and other powers. The result is selective and pragmatic cooperation rather than an ideologically-driven bloc. The partnership continues reshaping global geopolitics but in a gradualist way.
Implications: This middle pathway avoids excessive dependence or outright hostility between Russia and China while sustaining cooperation in areas of overlap. It likely fosters a multipolar order where both powers enjoy autonomy alongside interdependence. With multispeed relations across economic, diplomatic and security spheres, the West will have chances to engage each country on particular issues. But it will struggle to find substantive disputes that can be pried apart to undermine the overall partnership foundation and momentum.
Conclusion
This analysis highlights the complexity and contingency surrounding the future of Russia-China relations. The strategic implications for international affairs vary greatly across the scenarios. A weakening of ties would deflate the partnership’s influence but open new opportunities for Western engagement. Tightening into a full-fledged alliance would severely undermine U.S. interests but risk subordinating Russia to its more powerful partner over the long term. A middle pathway of selective cooperation seems most likely and sustainable, but predicting the future course nonetheless remains highly uncertain.
Much depends on leadership relations, threat perceptions and economic interdependence. Small events or miscalculations could push things in starkly different directions. While Western observers often highlight latent tensions in the partnership, the overall trajectory has been toward greater alignment. Managing this critical relationship will require nuanced statecraft that grasps its complexity. But the United States and its allies must recognize how the unique dynamics between two great powers like Russia and China can reshape global affairs regardless of scenario. The future course of their strategic partnership will remain pivotal to international relations.
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