Preliminary results from Austria’s legislative elections have revealed that the right-wing Freedom Party (FPÖ), led by Herbert Kickl, secured first place with 29.2% of the vote, marking the first time in its history it has achieved such a result. The Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) came second with 26.5%, while the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) garnered 21% of the vote. This victory for the Freedom Party follows its success in the European Parliament elections just three months earlier, which could significantly alter Austria’s political landscape and have broader implications for European dynamics, especially given the rise of the right in several European countries.
The Rise of the Right
Several indicators highlight the ascent of the right-wing in Austria and the growing populism that has tilted the balance in favor of the Freedom Party, despite criticism of its anti-Islam and anti-immigration rhetoric, as well as its leader Herbert Kickl’s controversial stances, even against his domestic political opponents. These indicators include:
Freedom Party’s First Victory in the European Parliament Elections: In early June 2024, around 400 million voters participated in the European Parliament elections to elect 720 members. During this election, Austria’s Freedom Party secured 25.4% of the vote, emerging as the leading party in the country for the first time. The Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) came second with 24.5%. In the previous European Parliament elections in 2019, the Freedom Party had only won three seats, a number that has now doubled in the new parliament.
Freedom Party Maintained Its Lead in Polls: Following the European Parliament elections, the Freedom Party continued to lead in opinion polls, with support ranging between 27-29%, about 3% ahead of the conservative Austrian People’s Party. Meanwhile, the center-left Social Democratic Party consistently ranked third with around 21%. These standings were reflected in the recent legislative election results, with only minor differences in percentage points.
Winning the Critical Voting Bloc: Since Herbert Kickl took over the leadership in 2021, the Freedom Party has shown significant skill in addressing key domestic concerns, especially regarding immigration, cutting aid to Ukraine, and continuing reliance on Russian gas. Additionally, the party’s swift and constructive response to sudden crises, such as the recent floods in early September, helped solidify its appeal. For example, the party called for urgent compensation for the most affected Austrian states, particularly Lower Austria, as well as for individuals and businesses impacted. They also pushed for the flood-related work absences to be counted as paid leave, helping them maintain support from a critical voting bloc.
Achieving Its Biggest Victory in Legislative Elections: The results the Freedom Party achieved in this election represent its largest success to date. In the 2019 elections, the party garnered only 16.2% of the vote. Back then, the party’s fortunes were affected by a scandal that led to the collapse of the government, in which the Freedom Party was a coalition partner. At the time, the party’s leader and vice-chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache, resigned after the release of a secretly recorded video showing him offering favors to a supposed Russian investor.
Chancellor Nehammer’s Refusal to Form a Coalition with Kickl: Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer expressed disappointment with the election results and his party’s defeat, stating that he felt “bitter” about his party not winning first place. He reiterated his refusal to form a coalition with Herbert Kickl, saying, “What I said before the election, I say after the election.” Nehammer has often labeled Kickl as a “security threat” to the country. However, he did not entirely rule out forming a coalition with the Freedom Party itself, implying that Kickl would have to relinquish his position in the government. Nevertheless, this scenario seems unlikely, given the Freedom Party’s first-place finish and Kickl’s ambitions to lead the government.
Possible Implications
There are a number of potential consequences tied to the far-right Freedom Party’s victory in the legislative elections in Austria. These implications are both domestic and related to the dynamics of the European scene, as follows:
Crisis in Forming the New Austrian Government: In Austria, it is customary for the leader of the party that secures the highest percentage in the legislative elections to be named the new Chancellor, as was the case with outgoing Chancellor Karl Nehammer after the 2019 elections. However, with the rise of the far-right in Austria and the controversial figure of Herbert Kickl, it is unlikely that events will follow the usual course. Kickl’s leadership is a major concern for Austrian political institutions, as both President Alexander Van der Bellen and outgoing Chancellor Nehammer previously stated that they would not cooperate with Kickl if his party won the elections. Additionally, political parties across the spectrum are hesitant to collaborate with the Freedom Party, particularly under Kickl’s leadership. The Freedom Party will need to form a coalition, either with one or two other parties, to achieve the legal majority required to form a government, which is at least 50% + 1.
Potential Tensions over the Party’s Agenda to Repatriate Immigrants: As part of its “Austria First” agenda, the Freedom Party supports what is called “repatriation of immigrants,” which means sending people back to the countries their families originally came from, especially those who have committed legal offenses. This is in contrast to the Social Democratic Party, which also seeks to redistribute asylum seekers but in a way that places less strain on Austria. If the Freedom Party manages to resolve the Chancellorship issue and appoint a new head of government, it is expected that they will vigorously pursue this goal as a top priority. Austria currently hosts approximately 146,000 refugees and others with subsidiary protection, along with over 18,000 asylum seekers. The majority of refugees are Syrians (around 58,000), followed by Afghans (around 41,000), who also top the list of nationalities seeking asylum. In his latest election campaign, Kickl emphasized deporting immigrants and proposed that if the Freedom Party succeeds in overcoming obstacles to form a government, its program should push for new laws to prevent refugees from accessing social services and to permanently bar them from acquiring Austrian citizenship.
The Challenge of Managing Herbert Kickl’s Ambitions: The Freedom Party did not secure the necessary legal threshold to form a government independently (an absolute majority of 50% + 1). Therefore, it will have to find one of two alternatives: the first option is to form a coalition with all other parties starting from the fourth-ranked, which together garnered about 25% of the total vote in the last elections. This includes minor parties like the Beer Party, the Gaza Party, the Greens, and others, forming a government in cooperation with them—an unrealistic scenario. The second option, which the Freedom Party will have to consider or face the consequences of missing out on, is to abandon the idea of appointing Herbert Kickl as Chancellor to replace Nehammer. Due to institutional and party opposition to Kickl personally, the Freedom Party could then form a coalition with either the Austrian People’s Party or the Social Democratic Party, completing the legal requirement to form the new government. This is, of course, a difficult option, but easier than the first. It would allow the party to preserve its historical achievements, including its victory in both European and national elections, rather than pushing the People’s Party and the Social Democrats into forming a three-party coalition with a smaller party, excluding the Freedom Party.
Possibility of Hindering Ukraine’s Accession to the European Union: Should the far-right Freedom Party take the lead in the next government, even if someone other than Herbert Kickl is named Chancellor, it could obstruct European efforts to admit Ukraine to the European Union during the current parliamentary session, which runs until 2029. This is due to the Freedom Party’s ties with Russia and its political agenda, which favors strengthening Austrian-Russian relations and neutralizing Austrian-Ukrainian relations.
Potential for Austria to Distance Itself from European Projects: The rise of the Freedom Party could lead to Austria being sidelined from European projects, as Kickl has strongly opposed the European Sky Shield initiative, describing it as a threat to Austria’s neutrality. Naturally, the party’s positive stance on relations with Russia could increase tensions between Austria and the European Union.
Support for Russia and Right-Wing Movements in Europe: A government led by the far-right Freedom Party, even in a coalition, could bolster Russia in its ongoing conflict with the United States and European countries. The party believes that international sanctions on Russia harm Austria more than they harm Russia. Furthermore, the Freedom Party might offer support to far-right movements in Italy, Germany, France, and the Netherlands, putting European unity at risk.
Exporting Refugee Issues to Neighboring European Countries: Under a government led by the far-right, Austria could become a country that expels refugees and tightens restrictions on foreign communities in general. This could contribute to exporting refugee issues to neighboring countries, especially Germany and Switzerland.
In summary, the next Austrian government will face an economy on the brink of a second consecutive year of contraction and inflation exceeding the European Union average, adding significance to the internal discussions regarding government formation. Notably, despite the domino effect of far-right movements rising in Europe, Austria’s far-right victory has been met with institutional and party opposition, somewhat mitigating the potential consequences of the Freedom Party achieving the necessary legal majority to form a government on its own. This will likely force the party to curb Herbert Kickl’s ambitions and present a more acceptable figure as Chancellor, or persist in backing Kickl despite the risk of political collapse.
