Recently, there has been much discussion about the rise of the far-right in Britain (as a literal translation of “far-right”), following more than 4 million British citizens voting for the Reform UK Party. This was met with some fear and pessimism by the media and analysts. The Reform UK Party rejected the BBC’s labeling of it as “far-right” and threatened legal action, prompting the BBC to apologize and amend its news headlines regarding the party. Scientifically, the rise of the Reform UK Party marks the beginning of the populist right-wing’s ascent in the British political scene, which differs in some ways from the far-right.
Increasing Influence
When discussing the rise of a political movement represented by a political party on the scene, it does not just mean the formation of this party; it means the party’s ability to participate in state legislative or executive institutions, which implies its ability to attract and gain the support of citizens’ votes. In this context, the Reform UK Party succeeded in achieving wide political gains, ranking third and securing two seats in local councils after the Conservative Party lost its stronghold in Blackpool South to the Reform UK Party by a majority of 58.9% with a slim margin of votes between them, reaching 0.06% of the votes, equivalent to only 117 votes. This marked the party’s success in participating in British local councils.
In the general British elections, the Reform UK Party came fourth after obtaining 4,103,727 votes (equivalent to 14% of the voting bloc), which translated into five parliamentary seats. This was a significant victory for its leader, Nigel Farage, who managed to lead his party into Parliament for the first time and participate in the legislative authority. In general, this rise is associated with several variables, such as:
The Impact of Inflation and Continued Labor Strikes:
The upward trend of economic inflation levels began in the late era of Boris Johnson in February 2021, when inflation was 0.4%, reaching 10.1% by the end of his term in September 2022. Inflation reached its highest level of 11.1% at the end of Liz Truss’s short presidency in October 2022. At the beginning of his term, Rishi Sunak promised to halve inflation and reduce public debt to revive the economy. Analyses showed that Sunak’s government did manage to halve inflation, but was less fortunate regarding public debt and economic recovery. Along with rising living costs, Britain witnessed an unprecedented number of labor and sectoral strikes during 2023 and 2024. In late December 2023, consultants and specialist doctors went on strike, preceded by nurses. In January 2024, newly graduated doctors and dentists carried out several strikes. In early March 2024, Welsh farmers organized a strike, blocking roads with tractors. The labor strikes in Britain calmed down by the end of 2023 only to resume after the New Year’s celebrations in 2024, doubling the burden on the national economy and causing losses in government income levels. Politically, this was an excuse to accept the talk about the separation of the political elite from the people’s lived reality, which is the essence of the populist rhetoric of the Reform UK Party.
Economic Repercussions of the Ukrainian War:
The Russian-Ukrainian war led to increased government spending on defense compared to other sectors like health, education, and agriculture. In 2020–2021, government spending on defense was £47.2 billion, rising to £51.9 billion in 2021–2022, and continued to rise to £55.5 billion in 2022–2023. Meanwhile, government spending in the health sector was estimated at £231.3 billion in 2020–2021, decreasing to £230.4 billion in 2021–2022, and significantly dropping to £211.6 billion in 2022–2023. In the agricultural sector, government spending in 2020–2021 was £6.32 billion, decreasing to £6.02 billion in 2021–2022, and slightly rising again to £6.6 billion in 2022–2023. Moreover, this war caused disruptions in supply chains for goods and services and unprecedented rises in food, fuel, and energy prices, exacerbating the impact of economic inflation felt by citizens in declining living standards.
Increase in Illegal Immigration: In 2021, the number of refugees who came to Britain in boats across the English Channel from the French side reached 28,526. This number doubled to 46,000 in 2022. The first half of 2023 saw a 10% decrease compared to the first half of 2022, with 11,500 illegal refugees reaching Britain, according to the Migration Observatory at Oxford University. The main challenge posed by illegal immigration is Britain’s ability to control its borders, a key concept in the idea of state sovereignty that led the British to vote for Brexit in the first place. This made the issue of illegal immigration the centerpiece of the Reform UK Party’s electoral program and its winning card.
Loss of Public Trust in the Conservative Party:
Sunak took power after Liz Truss resigned as leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister just six weeks after taking office due to the political crisis caused by the tax-cut plan that led to market turmoil and worsened the economic crisis, forcing Truss to cancel it. Before that, Truss had succeeded Boris Johnson, who led the country during the COVID-19 pandemic, but his term was marred by several political scandals, forcing him to resign. During Sunak’s presidency, several problems arose, such as statements by his then-Home Secretary Suella Braverman linking crime to immigrants, and her call for the police to deal harshly with pro-Palestinian protesters, whom she described as extremists, leading Sunak to dismiss her. Moreover, Sunak defended the Rwanda Plan to deport illegal refugees to Rwanda, a plan that lacked public or political support and was costly. Sunak’s handling of the economic file and inflexible response to sectoral strike demands in education, health, and railways, which persisted throughout the year, along with dissatisfaction with the British stance on the war in Gaza, all contributed to shaking the public’s confidence in the Conservative Party’s ability to continue leading the state.
Voting Behavior of British Voters:
In local elections, British voters relied on punitive voting against the Conservative Party, leading to the Conservative Party sharing right-wing supporters’ votes with the Reform UK Party after a third of right-wing voters who rejected Conservative policies refused to vote for the left and preferred to vote for the ideologically closer Reform UK Party. In the general elections of July 2024, the Conservative Party lost 252 seats, while the Labour Party gained 214 additional seats. The remaining seats from the Conservative Party’s loss (38 seats) were divided among smaller parties, which gained a total of 14 seats, in addition to the difference between the Liberal Democrats and the Reform UK Party (24 seats).
Key Trends
This rise of the Reform Party is also linked to the party’s specific trends, which can be outlined as follows:
Efforts to Differentiate Politically from the Far-Right: Far-right parties trace their historical roots in the European context to Italian fascism and German Nazism, adopting an anti-democratic stance and openly expressing a desire to change it once in power. More importantly, far-right parties justify the use of violent strategies for change and discriminate among state members based on race and ethnicity. In contrast, populist parties’ supporters often emphasize that they have transcended fascism and Nazism and are not ideologically linked to them, always affirming their commitment to democratic values and principles. These parties are often associated with narratives of nationalism and prioritizing the interests of the native citizens over those of non-citizens and foreigners within their borders, especially in employment and social welfare policies provided by the state. Here, two points differentiate populist right-wing parties from the far-right: first, populist right-wing parties do not discriminate based on race or ethnicity but on citizenship. Second, the populist basis of radical right-wing populist parties is based on distinguishing between the people and the corrupt elite trying to circumvent the people’s will. By these classifications, the Reform UK Party is a right-wing populist party, not a far-right one.
Focus on British Nationalism: The party has pledged to end immigration to Britain. In other words, the Reform UK Party has played on the strings of nationalism, British patriotism, and identity and cultural policies. According to the YouGov poll on voting intentions before the 2024 British general election, the characteristics of Reform UK Party supporters do not differ from those who voted for the Brexit Party in the 2019 elections; most of them are elderly, working-class, and middle-class. In May 2023, Nigel Farage’s statements appeared on the main headlines, in which he indicated that “Brexit has failed,” which is in line with what 63% of the surveyed Britons said. It is well known to followers of British politics that the members and leader of the Reform UK Party were previously members of the UK Independence Party, which managed at that time to win 1.8% of the voting bloc, nearly 600,000 votes, without translating that into parliamentary seats. However, accusations of extremism against the UK Independence Party led Farage and most UKIP members to resign and form the Reform UK Party to reintroduce themselves and their policies to the British public.
Rejection of Social Division and Islamophobia: In one interview, Nigel Farage expressed concern about the emergence of divisions in British society, affirming that he is against Islamophobia and feels that the most concerned and fearful about extremist Islamic rhetoric are the conservative, disciplined Muslim family members who feel that extremist rhetoric threatens their children and their faith in general.
The Importance of Being Part of the British Right Wing: After the election results were announced, Nigel Farage commented that the Reform Party is now part of the broad British right-wing, reflecting its influence on the British political scene and the extent to which citizens agree with the party’s vision and policies. This is also consistent with what the party seeks by rejecting the far-right label. This, in turn, has implications for the possibility of forming a future coalition with the Conservative Party. When the leaders of the two parties were asked about the possibility of forming such a coalition, they did not reject the idea but indicated that such a move would be the subject of negotiations between the two sides.
Conclusion
These variables reveal that the Reform UK Party is no longer a political party that can be described as minor, as it was in 2019, as it is now participating in the local council and parliamentary elections, marking its rise on the British political scene. The party’s leaders insist on rejecting the label of far-right, attempting to differentiate themselves from the historical roots of this trend while sticking to populist rhetoric and policies based on nationalism, sovereignty, and national identity. However, in any case, this party remains part of the British right-wing, so its future depends on the development of this trend in British politics, the relationship between the party and the Conservative Party, and the extent to which the Reform Party will continue to gain votes.
