The collapse of Western influence in West Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, is a complex phenomenon rooted in various factors, including political dynamics, military strategy, and diplomatic errors. This decline reflects broader challenges faced by Western powers in maintaining control and influence in the region, especially with Russia emerging as a strategic competitor.
In this context, the expulsion of the United States from Niger, announced by the ruling military council on March 16, 2024, represents a significant turning point in the long-standing counterterrorism partnership between the two countries. The Nigerien government views the security agreement, in effect since 2012, as a violation of its constitution. Thus, the announcement of its cancellation reflects the government’s desire to assert its sovereignty and define its own partnerships in the fight against terrorism. This article aims to analyze the reasons and implications of the decline of American and Western influence in Africa.
Is the U.S. Following in France’s Footsteps?
The decision to expel the U.S. comes amid escalating terrorist violence in the Sahel and after a series of failed diplomatic efforts by the U.S. to maintain its presence in Niger. Despite high-level visits by officials from the State Department and the Pentagon, including General Michael Langley from U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), the ruling military council in Niger remained steadfast in its decision to end the security agreement.
The U.S. has maintained a significant military presence in Niger, with approximately 1,000 military personnel and civilian contractors stationed at Air Base 201 near Agadez. This base serves as a major center for U.S. military operations in North and West Africa and is integral to American surveillance and security efforts in the region. However, the expulsion signals the end of this cooperation and highlights the strained relations between the two countries.
Furthermore, the expulsion raises questions about the effectiveness of American security cooperation in West Africa. Despite significant investments in military aid and training, terrorist attacks in the Sahel have continued to rise. For instance, at least 15 officers who benefited from U.S. security assistance have been involved in 12 coups in West Africa and the Sahel during the war on terror, including coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Niger. This highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of security threats in the region and the limitations of military interventions in addressing them.
The Iranian and Russian factors also explain the U.S. exit from Niger. The U.S. has adopted a tougher stance toward Niger since January 2024 due to Niger’s growing ties with Iran and Russia, contributing to the current impasse. The U.S. administration has accused Niger of secretly seeking a deal to allow Iran access to its uranium reserves during meetings on March 12-13, 2024. Jeune Afrique reported that American suspicions that one of the existing energy agreements between Iran and Niger involves uranium supply have become a red line for future U.S. cooperation with Niger. On the other hand, Russian mercenaries (formerly Wagner Group, now African Legion) could fill the American-evacuated positions in northern Niger within months of U.S. troops leaving the country, which could pose various threats to NATO’s southern flank and strengthen Russian logistical networks in Africa.
Reasons for the Decline of Western Influence
The American predicament in the Sahel is part of a broader trend of Western influence decline, attributed to several factors:
- Collapse of Western Strategy in the Sahel: The withdrawal of French and Western forces from Mali, Burkina Faso, and recently Niger, following successive coups, reflects a failure of Western security approaches to effectively combat cross-border terrorism and stabilize the region. The inability to address security threats has led to the emergence of military councils in many Sahelian countries, further eroding Western influence. According to the African Center for Strategic Studies, terrorist attacks in the Sahel have significantly increased in recent years. During 2002-2003, terrorists caused only 23 casualties across Africa. However, last year alone, attacks by Islamist extremists in the Sahel resulted in 11,643 deaths, a more than 50% increase. These statistics underscore the severity of the security challenges facing the region and the urgent need for effective counterterrorism strategies.
- Disillusionment with the Western Development Model: Local populations and elites have grown disillusioned with Western aid due to its ineffectiveness and imposition of Western values. The failure to address fundamental issues and conflicting values, such as gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights, has fueled resentment and weakened Western credibility. One of the central issues faced by countries like Niger is the continuation of the colonial development model, which prioritizes resource extraction over sustainable development. Despite its wealth of natural resources, including uranium and gold reserves, Niger remains one of the world’s poorest countries, with a significant portion of its population living in extreme poverty. The colonial legacy has entrenched generational poverty and environmental degradation, exacerbating insecurity and driving migration across the region.
Captain Ibrahim Traoré, President of Burkina Faso, voiced frustration with Africa’s ongoing underdevelopment despite its resource wealth during the Russia-Africa summit held in St. Petersburg in July 2023. Traoré, inspired by Thomas Sankara’s spirit, stated at the summit: “African leaders should not act as puppets in the hands of imperialists and colonizers. I tell these leaders: We must ensure our people’s self-sufficiency, particularly addressing food shortages, which is a top priority, and we must respect our people who fight against colonialism.”
- Growing Russian Influence: Russia’s approach to exploiting Western shortcomings and providing alternative support has led to further marginalization of Western influence. By offering military aid and forming alliances with African countries, Russia aims to challenge NATO dominance and expand its influence in the region. Russia today enjoys a significant presence in Africa’s mining and energy markets. Russian mining concessions are concentrated in countries with poor governance and weak institutions, such as the Central African Republic, Guinea, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Sudan, allowing for blurred lines between official and unofficial concessions. This ambiguity is often further exploited by companies associated with Wagner Group, now the African Legion. In contrast to the mining sector, Russian involvement in oil and gas projects is more geographically diverse.
However, it’s important to note that Russian companies are not official partners in any major oil and gas projects in Africa. In fact, Russia contributes less than 1% of foreign direct investment on the continent. Conversely, Russia has signed nuclear cooperation agreements with twenty African countries. Egypt and Nigeria are expected to join South Africa, which already has an operational nuclear power plant, to become among the African nations with nuclear capabilities supported by Russian technology. Undoubtedly, the Russian alternative represents a positive trend towards a multipolar world, offering Africans an opportunity to diversify their strategic partnerships with major powers in the international system.
The Niger Dilemma and Its Implications
The Niger Syndrome, so to speak, represents a major turning point in reshaping the geopolitical landscape at both regional and global levels. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has become ineffective, failing to grasp the complex global dynamics witnessed post-Ukrainian war. The emergence of Sahelian alliances and revolutionary regimes in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso challenges the existing power structures dominated by Western interests, particularly French interests. Thus, coups in West Africa should be seen not as isolated events but as part of a larger movement aimed at rejecting Western hegemony and restructuring the global strategic system. Key issues in this new scramble are likely to include the struggle for control of strategic resources like uranium and the role of external powers in shaping Africa’s political and economic landscape.
Overall, the collapse of Western influence in West Africa represents both an opportunity and a challenge. The challenge lies in the need for a comprehensive reevaluation of Western approaches and concerted efforts to rebuild trust and partnerships with African nations. As the Niger dilemma illustrates, there is a linkage between the challenges of development in the Sahel and the urgent need for comprehensive solutions that prioritize sustainable development, equitable resource distribution, and political stability. African countries will only escape the cycle of poverty and insecurity that has plagued the continent for generations by addressing these fundamental issues. The opportunity for African nations lies in seizing the moment of transformation in the international system towards multipolarity to enhance their role and build new strategic alliances, such as BRICS+, and other forms of cooperation among Global South countries.
