Eastern European countries, including Belarus, have become one of the key regions for Chinese movements in recent years. These countries offer significant political and economic opportunities, whether through enhancing their political presence—given that these countries serve as a gateway to Europe—or by expanding their investments in these countries and achieving substantial economic gains. Additionally, some of these countries, especially Belarus, have aligned themselves with the axis seeking to make fundamental changes in the current international system. In this context, the visit of Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Belarus in August 2024 can be understood as a significant moment in the ongoing development of Sino-Belarusian relations. The visit underscored the deepening ties between the two countries and was marked by a shared commitment to strengthening their strategic partnership.
Gradual Development
Over the past three decades, relations between China and Belarus have gradually evolved from basic diplomatic ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This trend is clearly reflected in several key areas:
Increasing Political Openness: In recent years, political openness between China and Belarus has increased, evident in the frequent meetings between officials from both countries. For instance, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with his Belarusian counterpart in July 2024 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Astana. This openness was also highlighted during the recent visit of Premier Li Qiang to Belarus, where he emphasized that bilateral relations have progressed rapidly since the establishment of diplomatic ties 32 years ago, highlighting the long-standing friendship between China and Belarus. Over the years, the two countries have successfully established high-level dialogues, thereby strengthening a strong political bond supported by shared views on global governance and mutual support in international forums. Additionally, they have maintained close political contacts, reflected in their alignment on major international issues and mutual support in global forums. Belarus has consistently supported China’s core interests, such as the One China policy, while China has supported Belarus in its domestic and foreign policies.
Development of Economic Relations: Bilateral trade between the two countries has grown rapidly, with China now being Belarus’s largest trading partner in Asia and a major player in Belarus’s economic landscape. In 2023, bilateral trade exceeded $8.4 billion, and both sides signed agreements to enhance trade in services, investment, and cooperation in various sectors, including industrial supply chains, agriculture, and technology. The China-Belarus industrial park has become a flagship project symbolizing their economic cooperation, demonstrating the economic synergy between the two countries. This synergy has been further strengthened by Belarus’s active participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, leading to significant infrastructure and investment projects. Additionally, the joint development of the China-Belarus Industrial Park, a flagship project under the Belt and Road Initiative, has become a focal point for high-quality industrial cooperation. This project aims to promote innovation and advanced manufacturing, serving as a major hub for trade between China and Europe.
Military Cooperation: China and Belarus have conducted several joint military exercises, the latest of which took place in July 2024, raising concerns among several Western countries, particularly Poland. While military cooperation is not the primary focus, mutual support on security matters, especially in opposing external interference in internal affairs, indicates a deepening strategic alignment. Belarus’s reliance on Chinese technology and their shared opposition to Western sanctions also point to potential military and security cooperation.
Expanding Scientific Partnerships: Cooperation in science and technology is being institutionalized through joint laboratories, research centers, and high-tech parks. This includes promoting academic exchanges and joint projects expected to drive innovation and knowledge transfer.
Increasing Strategic Alignment on Global Issues: China and Belarus are working to align their positions on major global issues and strengthen their partnership on the international stage. For instance, in a joint statement issued during Premier Li Qiang’s official visit to Belarus in August 2024, both countries expressed their opposition to external powers interfering in the internal affairs of other nations, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty and non-intervention. The joint statement also highlighted support for peaceful solutions to regional issues and constructive bilateral dialogue.
Diverse Determinants
The increasing closeness between China and Belarus is linked to several key factors:
Shared Relations with Russia: Both China and Belarus enjoy strong relations with Russia, which plays a crucial role in strengthening ties between China and Belarus. The three countries currently share a common interest in the need to reshape the international system, and they nearly adopt the same narrative regarding the Ukrainian conflict and the confrontation with the West and NATO.
China’s Strategic Expansion in Eastern Europe: China aims to expand its influence in Eastern Europe, with Belarus serving as a critical hub for initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. Belarus’s strategic location makes it a key partner in China’s initiative, particularly for freight trains between China and Europe. This facilitates China’s broader ambitions to expand its economic and political influence in the region, making Belarus a key partner in Beijing’s efforts to enhance connectivity with Europe. China’s policy toward Belarus is part of a broader strategy related to Beijing’s moves in Eastern Europe, as China is betting on developing its partnerships and alliances with several countries in the region, as evidenced by the growing relations with Hungary and Serbia.
Shared Economic Interests: Shared economic interests between Belarus and China are a significant driver of closer ties between the two countries. Belarus is an important participant in the Belt and Road Initiative, and there are Belarusian efforts to maximize Chinese investments in various sectors. The two countries are also working to expand the use of local currencies in trade and investment, establishing an effective system for local currency settlement. This step aims to reduce dependence on global currencies and enhance economic sovereignty.
Balancing Increasing Western Pressures: Both countries share strained relations with Western countries, although the situation for Belarus is more complex. In recent years, Western countries have exerted immense pressure on the Belarusian regime, whether due to internal Belarusian issues and ongoing European criticism of the regime’s policies or due to the close alliance between Russia and Belarus, with Western countries viewing Belarus as a supporter of Moscow in its war against Ukraine. On the other hand, Beijing faces major challenges in its relations with Western countries, as seen in Western moves against Beijing in its traditional spheres of influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, not to mention the use of the Taiwan issue by Western countries to pressure China. Additionally, the escalating trade conflict between Western countries and Beijing has led many of these countries to impose tariffs on various Chinese imports. Many Western circles also view China as a supporter of Moscow in the Ukraine war, despite Beijing promoting some initiatives to settle the conflict.
Providing Beijing with Tools to Pressure the West: Relations with Belarus provide Beijing with tools to pressure Western countries and respond to Western moves in its traditional spheres of influence. In recent years, many Western countries have sought to expand their presence in the Indo-Pacific region, while NATO has sought to strengthen its relations with several countries in the region, particularly Japan and South Korea. From this perspective, closer ties with Belarus mean a Chinese presence near European countries, putting pressure on NATO countries. This was evident in the joint military exercises “Falcon Attack 2024” conducted by China and Belarus in Brest, southwest Belarus, in July 2024. These exercises raised concerns in Poland, with the Polish Ministry of Defense stating at the time that it was “continuously monitoring and analyzing the situation on the border… as well as the Chinese-Belarusian exercises,” adding that “despite the limited scope of participation of the People’s Republic of China’s forces and resources, the Ministry of Defense sees a risk that these operations could be used for misinformation and propaganda purposes coinciding with the NATO summit in Washington.”
In conclusion, the developments in Sino-Belarusian relations highlight the broader implications for regional stability and global geopolitics. The deepening ties between these two countries serve as a model of pragmatic cooperation in a complex and rapidly changing international environment. As a result, this growing partnership between China and Belarus, supported by strategic, economic, and political considerations, is expected to influence the broader geopolitical landscape, impacting not only Eastern Europe but also the dynamics of global power.
